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Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #120 –
Quote from: Mav – on
HERE'S an article which describes what's involved in case-control studies.

Are you still going, LP?  Your're like a passionate fan trying to browbeat an opposition fan about why team A will beat team B.

Until the real facts are out your all you are doing is placing a bet, making a guess, because your conclusions are not fully supported by the current evidence. If it goes your way I suppose we will hear all about your success just like Caroline Wilson, but if it doesn't will you discuss your failure? But that will be retrospective, even if it goes you way you'll have nothing to credit yourself with than making a correct guess.

Don't offer me your opinions on this matter they are worthless, as are mine, just discuss what the real experts think and do it with some critical thinking. All you seem to do is attack me and avoid discussing the facts as presented by people far more qualified than either of us! It's pretty piss poor of you, it wouldn't hold water in a court, and it exposes you for what you are!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #121 –
I'll go with the evidence and the case-control studies will give us the best evidence yet.  If it says there's no link, so be it.  I am not backing either horse but the horse being ridden by causal link is the favourite with the bookies right now.  As for trying to claim credit later on, are you serious?  I am not involved in the research, so how could I?  You might, however, be a loser as you're strongly backing the no link horse.

It's good to see WHO is trying to raise $56m for research into the Zika virus and to help fashion the response to it.  The more information the better.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #122 –
Quote from: Mav – on
You might, however, be a loser as you're strongly backing the no link horse.

It's not my opinion, I'm reporting the position of the bulk of non-conflicted specialists debating the issue, at this stage there is no casual link and some of the earlier claims of strong evidence have already been debunked or retracted. Most are revising down estimates of Zika's influence to being just another minor contributing factor like alcohol, rubella or herpes.

But it won't stop the likes of a Trump winning votes for postulating a fence across America to keep the Zika south of the border, which seems to be the right wing media debate started as a political points scorer and excuse for institutionalised racism with very little to do with science, humanitarianism, Zika or microcephaly.

Zika is already there as it is here, it seems it's been here for years as a mild flu like Flavivirus that nobody bothered to diagnose! There is a good chance anyone who has been to Bali, Thailand, Jakarta, PNG, The Philippines or South Pacific islands already has antibodies in their system. But do you care and are you worried? You along with everybody else has millions of other antibodies floating around inside you that science knows nothing about from pathogens as yet unidentified! Just in the average human microbiota there are billions most of which are unstudied.

It reminds me of the term Junk DNA which was once claimed to be up to 98% of a cell contents, and as each year goes by more of it gets re-categoised and less of it is junk! My guess would be nature is pretty economical and efficient and by the end of the Junk DNA story if 2% is left "as junk" that will be a surprise.

What is of real interest to scientists is why the increase in reported cases, is it a real increase or just because awareness has increased? They cannot answer this question and others definitively on the validity, cause or symptoms. The conclusions drawn by the media on those questions and reported as fact are just guesses and are no more right than wrong.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #123 –
Which is why the case-control studies are so important.  Not only will they address causal links but also examine the legitimacy of diagnoses, the accuracy of the statistics and whether the stage of the pregnancy at infection matters. I note the CDC is sending down a team as well.
 

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #124 –
Quote from: Mav – on
Which is why the case-control studies are so important.  Not only will they address causal links but also examine the legitimacy of diagnoses, the accuracy of the statistics and whether the stage of the pregnancy at infection matters. I note the CDC is sending down a team as well.

The earlier results hinted that the 2nd trimester was the critical period, infection before or after has as yet not been related to microcephaly. This has lead some to speculate that the problem isn't the presence of Zika in the placenta but possibly a reaction from the mothers own immune system that is the root cause. I don't know the reason behind why they think that is the case.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #125 –
So, I heard there's an election happening???

Can we please get back onto topic and focus on how Bernie can beat "her" and go on to become President? Excellent, thanks. ;)
Keep the Faith

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #126 –
Quote from: Woodstock – on
So, I heard there's an election happening???

Can we please get back onto topic and focus on how Bernie can beat "her" and go on to become President? Excellent, thanks. ;)

Yeah probably the most off topic thread I can remember that wasn't moved into a more relevant thread.

Back on track....

The Pope rocks!!!! >:D

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/19/world/americas/pope-francis-donald-trump-christian.html?_r=0
IN WADA WE TRUST

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #127 –
Quote from: Juddkreuzer – on
Yeah probably the most off topic thread I can remember that wasn't moved into a more relevant thread.

Back on track....

The Pope rocks!!!! >:D

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/19/world/americas/pope-francis-donald-trump-christian.html?_r=0

Funny how your linked article went straight to the Zika virus/microcephaly/abortion issue JK  :)

I still can't believe that the Republican machine will allow Trump to get the nomination but it seems that conservative folk are completely over establishment politicians.  Similarly, the progressives seem to be favouring Sanders over the establishment's Clinton.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #130 –
Quote from: Woodstock – on
So, I heard there's an election happening???

Can we please get back onto topic and focus on how Bernie can beat "her" and go on to become President? Excellent, thanks. ;)

He won't. Reckon Hilary's in the White House now. She easily win the Democrat nomination and in the end I don't see any way known the Americans will vote Trump in even if he wins the Republican nomination.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #131 –
Quote from: Juddkreuzer – on
Yeah probably the most off topic thread I can remember that wasn't moved into a more relevant thread.

Back on track....

The Pope rocks!!!! >:D

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/19/world/americas/pope-francis-donald-trump-christian.html?_r=0

It's most probably because no one really cares about an election that is more theatre than democracy.

I just come to read the comments as I like the American voters have nothing of value to add to this discussion.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #132 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
It's most probably because no one really cares about an election that is more theatre than democracy.

I just come to read the comments as I like the American voters have nothing of value to add to this discussion.

Yet at the end of the year one of these folk will be arguably be in an extremely powerful position.
We should care because some of the extreme ideas and the basis of their thinking  will largely determine our history (or lack of it :() going forward.
A confrontational President prepared to take it up to say a Putin, or to aggressively test Chinese territorial claims could have serious implications for the way we live.
An isolationist president could have an equal impact.

So where are we up to?
One by one the still large Republican field will drop off.
Pretty much those republicans supporting Trump would be locked in.
What happens with the support of the ''dropouts'' will determine the Republican nominee.

Someone like Jeb Bush whose campaign seems to be faltering may actually surge if he can hang on a bit longer and pick up the support of the dropouts.

I still doubt it will be Trump...Rubio was looking good but he hurt himself with a poor debate before New Hampshire
Cruz looks the most likely at the moment to challenge Trump but Kasich, Rubio and Bush are splitting alternative votes that if combined behind one candidate would be significant.

Hillary is floundering...Sanders has her on the ropes...but the Democrat machine will ensure she gets the nomination.
The thing is that she has a lot of baggage accumulated over the years on which to attack her.

The race is a long way from over....and there's no certainty which party will have the White House when it's finished.

(Just keep an eye out for Joe Biden if things turn really sour for Clinton)

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #133 –
Remember that the GOP may face a brokered convention: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/contested-republican-national-convention-work/story?id=37003821.

As that article notes, if no candidate wins a majority of delegates and the 1st vote at the Republican Convention goes according to the commitments of those delegates, all the delegates will be released from their commitments and they can vote for whomever they want.  There's a restriction currently that they can only vote for a candidate who has won 8 primaries, but the GOP can play around with that. 

This article suggests Trump would be smoked in a brokered convention: http://www.oregonlive.com/today/index.ssf/2016/02/donald_trump_might_get_smoked.html.

The problem for the GOP is that snubbing Trump if he goes into the convention as the leader would almost certainly see him run as an independent Presidential candidate.  That would almost certainly split the conservative vote and hand the election to the Democratic candidate.  Yes, he signed a pledge that he'd support the GOP nominee, but he then stated that this would only be if he was treated fairly.  He then said at one of the debates that he'd back the nominee no matter what, but we all know he'll walk away from that commitment if it suits him. 

I wonder whether the GOP is all that unhappy about the logjam of candidates.  On the one hand, it does split the establishment vote 4 ways at the moment, but it also helps to stop Trump from winning a majority of delegates thereby preserving the party's power over the convention.  If the field thins down to Trump and Cruz, perhaps Trump can win a majority.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #134 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Yet at the end of the year one of these folk will be arguably be in an extremely powerful position.
We should care because some of the extreme ideas and the basis of their thinking  will largely determine our history (or lack of it :() going forward.
A confrontational President prepared to take it up to say a Putin, or to aggressively test Chinese territorial claims could have serious implications for the way we live.
An isolationist president could have an equal impact.

So where are we up to?
One by one the still large Republican field will drop off.
Pretty much those republicans supporting Trump would be locked in.
What happens with the support of the ''dropouts'' will determine the Republican nominee.

Someone like Jeb Bush whose campaign seems to be faltering may actually surge if he can hang on a bit longer and pick up the support of the dropouts.

I still doubt it will be Trump...Rubio was looking good but he hurt himself with a poor debate before New Hampshire
Cruz looks the most likely at the moment to challenge Trump but Kasich, Rubio and Bush are splitting alternative votes that if combined behind one candidate would be significant.

Hillary is floundering...Sanders has her on the ropes...but the Democrat machine will ensure she gets the nomination.
The thing is that she has a lot of baggage accumulated over the years on which to attack her.

The race is a long way from over....and there's no certainty which party will have the White House when it's finished.

(Just keep an eye out for Joe Biden if things turn really sour for Clinton)

Sorry lods, I don't care because even if I did it wouldn't make a difference (or couldn't).
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson