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Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #555 –
Let's not forget that there are other issues that may well emerge.  One is the Zika virus.  Not only has the link to microcephaly been made but also the harm it causes isn't limited to that condition.  It has now been established that it can be passed by sex with an infected person whether male or female and doctors have advised that the infectious period has been raised to 2 months.

The US has had a fair number of cases but up til recently they were all cases contracted while the infected person was travelling overseas or from sexual contact with such a traveller.  Florida has now notified 4 cases in which the infection appears to have been spread by mosquito bites in Florida.  That is a major development.  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/florida-confirms-first-locally-transmitted-zika_us_579b6319e4b08a8e8b5daa25?section=

Even worse, the experts believe that the virus is no longer confined to a tropical species of mosquito which has limited penetration into the US.  It now looks as though the virus has jumped to the most common species of mosquito in California and others: http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/healthy-choices/article92034182.html.  This is a virus which seems to keep upping its game.

This plays into the Dems' wheelhouse.  Obama tried to obtain $1.9b to fund efforts to deal with the possibility of an epidemic but the Republicans firstly would only consider authorising $1.1b in funding and even then they tried to attach riders to it so that it would divert funding from Obamacare and Planned Parenthood while overturning a ban o the flying of the Confederate flags in military cemeteries .  It went nowhere.  http://time.com/4406114/zika-funding-bill-fails-as-congress-is-unable-to-reach-compromise/

Raising issues of national healthcare, Planned Parenthood's role in giving family planning advice to pregnant women who might consider abortions of affected foetuses and issues of science generally, this would give Clinton a major advantage.  And the inaction of the Republican Congress would hurt it in the congressional elections too.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #556 –
Act One of 'Zika Hits the USA' has begun, CNN, 29/7/16.

Quote
Zika is here, in the USA. Fasten your seat belts because we're in for a bumpy ride.

Local mosquitoes in the Miami area are carrying the Zika virus, and have infected at least four Floridians. In announcing this alarming news during a press conference Friday morning, Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican, added a sharp warning: "This is not just a Florida issue. It's a national issue -- we just happen to be at the forefront."

Now all the falderal typical of American outbreaks will commence: Political posturing, hysteria versus naysaying, conspiracy theories, demands for safety and care and a daily mounting toll of identified cases. And this year the hoopla will unfold against the background of one of the ugliest, most deeply divided election years in modern history.
...
Scott no doubt saw the threat coming: every health expert knew swampy, mosquito-infested Florida would get hit with Zika first. Like some dreadful slow-motion horror movie Scott and scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have for months watched the Zika crisis unfold across Latin America, the Caribbean, Puerto Rico -- all the while expressing exasperation over the lack of congressional approval for federal funds to augment the state's $26 million emergency fund.

Scott said he found Washington's partisan disputes over Zika funding "profoundly disappointing," and his consternation only increased when Congress closed for summer recess, having reached no Zika funding agreement, thereby leaving states to muddle through the nation's peak mosquito season without hope of significant federal support until well after Labor Day.
...
On Friday the CDC forecast that more than 10,000 pregnancies this year in Puerto Rico could be affected by Zika infections -- ten thousand. Whether you are inclined to support a right to life position or Planned Parenthood the prospect of idly bearing witness to thousands of pregnancies that result in miscarriages or birth defects should enrage.
...
But it isn't just Florida. It would be a grave mistake to imagine that Zika will confine itself to the seaside villas of Miami or the suburbs of Broward County. Look out, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, the Carolinas, and, yes, the District of Columbia. The pressure Floridians are now applying in pursuit of federal support will swiftly magnify, as counties from Cameron, Texas, to Monmouth, New Jersey, join the din, demanding help from Washington.

Yes, we all know Washington is dysfunctional these days, but this isn't about arguing and refusing to compromise about highway construction -- this is about the nation's babies.

So fasten your seat belts, America -- the curtain is just now raising, and Act One of "Zika Hits the USA" has begun. And hecklers up in the cheap seats will be shouting, "Hey Congress, we told you so!"

Who could have seen this coming? :P

The experts say that a quarter of Puerto Ricans will have been infected by the end of the year.  Puerto Rico is a territory of the US and even votes in presidential primaries. 

The position of Governor Scott is interesting.  He is the National Chairman of the Trump Super PAC.  Though he demands federal help, he turned down a request made by the CDC to send in teams to help with contact tracing and testing.  If I were the Governor, I'd accept any help offered, particularly when the CDC has experts who've been working on the Zika Virus for months.  From a public health standpoint, the CDC should be involved as mosquitos and viruses don't respect State boundaries.  I hope Governor Scott didn't refuse CDC assistance for political reasons and it has to be said that Florida has previously performed well in combatting other mosquito-borne diseases.

It'll be interesting to hear what the anti-science guy, Trump, will say about the Zika Virus.  What conspiracy theory will he unleash?  What will be his sage advice to devastated pregnant women?

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #558 –
Quote from: Mav – on
Act One of 'Zika Hits the USA' has begun, CNN, 29/7/16.
It'll be interesting to hear what the anti-science guy, Trump, will say about the Zika Virus.  What conspiracy theory will he unleash?  What will be his sage advice to devastated pregnant women?


What the Republicans may have done in the past with regard to funding wont be relevant in the Presidential race.
What they've done with any issue wont be relevant.....because Trump has managed to create a division between himself and the party that enables him to dissociate himself from decisions of the past.

Where this may impact will be in the House and Senate elections

The winner of the Presidential race will be the one who suffers least damage in the war of attrition to come.


Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #559 –
Lods, what you say makes a lot of sense but Flyboy's post just before yours shows how Trump may well make a mess of this issue.

Remember that the CNN article foreshadowed conspiracy theories erupting over the Zika virus?  As if on cue, Flyboy posted a conspiracy theory from a charter member of the tin-foil-hat brigade.  The author has left a very small digital footprint for someone with the impressive biography he provides for himself.  Was he really nominated for a Pullitzer Prize (i.e. was he one of the 3 entrants selected by the jury or was he simply entered by a friend on payment of the $50 entry fee)?  Anyway, how about this statement taken from the linked article:
Quote
This is my second article on the Zika-virus scam (article archive here). I’ve been to these rodeos before: HIV, West Nile, Swine Flu, SARS, Ebola. In each case, a virus is blamed for illness and death that actually arises from other causes.
Hands up those who think that those viruses were improperly blamed for those diseases?  THIS BLOG looked into him and revealed he's a "germ theory denialist", an anti-vaxxer on steroids as most anti-vaxxers don't deny that viruses cause diseases but instead claim treatments and vaccinations cause more harm than good.  He believes that this conspiracy by the medical cartel is a cover for depopulation.

Lods, you're right that this won't hurt Trump if he plays his cards right.  But he has never met a conspiracy theory that he didn't like.  He went big with the 'birther' conspiracy theory, saying that Obama had to prove he wan't born in a Muslim country and that he wasn't a secret Muslim who was intent on destroying America.  Lately, he has jumped aboard the 'Ted Cruz's father conspired with Lee Harvey Oswald to kill JFK' bandwagon.  If the Zika virus does spread, it will be an obvious and proper issue to bring up in the Presidential Debates.  If he is asked whether the Zika virus is a health issue and what will he do about it, how will he respond?  I'm sure everyone will hold their breath as he prepares his answer.  Will he side with the anti-vaxxers or will he say that it's an issue and he'll kill all the mosquitos, that he's the biggest enemy of mosquitos everywhere?  If he accepts that the Zika virus causes birth defects, what will he say when asked whether infected expectant mothers should be able to abort? 

The only way he'll be able to duck the issue is to avoid interviews and debates.  And that's very possible.  After all, the evil media can't be trusted.  Ban them all!

PS: We also have to remember that Florida is a State that is up for grabs and which might swing the election, as it did in 2000 for George Dubya.  As Florida is ground zero when it comes to the Zika virus, mocking concerns over it might not be the smartest move.  I'm sure that Trump's campaign team is hoping that Governor Scott can contain the virus and it dies as an issue.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #560 –
Most Americans don't think guns kill people so do you think they're worried about some little virus?

Hilary's camp were the ones who started the Obama birth certificate thing when she went up against him 2008.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #561 –
Do you remember the panic in the US over Ebola?  Governor Chris Christie ordered that a nurse returning from Africa be held in isolation and she was held for 3 days.  In the US, guns are seen as the solution, not the problem.  Viruses are only championed by nutters like the Westboro Baptist Church which believes they are God's means of wiping out sinners.  You can defend against a bad man with a gun as long as you or some other good guy is carrying an M-16 but those damn mossies are hard to take down unless you deploy neutron bombs.  Not even a 20 foot wall would save the nation. 

Even that NRA gun nut Tom Clancy premised 'Executive Orders' on an attack by Iran using weaponised Ebola intended to cripple the US.  Concurrent attacks by Iranian terrorists using M-16s on President Jack Ryan's daughter at her daycare centre were brushed off with President Ryan aghast at suggestions the attack Could be used to justify gun control

Films and books have certainly conditioned the public to fear epidemics.  Google 'films about viral outbreaks' and you'll come up with at least 73, with a nice little sub-category dealing with zombie-causing outbreaks as The Walking Dead fans would well know. 

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #563 –
Your certitude never ceases to a amaze me Mav.   C:-)  C:-)

Plenty out there who reckon the zika thing is a beat up..... bury your head.
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #564 –
Then surely you can point to some scientific support for that belief.  After all, the causes and effects of the Zika virus are medical and scientific issues rather than a matter of political or religious belief, aren't they?

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #566 –
Yep.  It's impossible for any single person to figure out the impact of these incidents, all the moreso for non-Americans like us.  If he wins the election, then we would have to admit the possibility that this firefight gave him the chance to double down on anti-Muslim rhetoric and the condemnation by the press and GOP figures worked to his advantage.  But I can say that his behaviour disgusts me.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #567 –
Quote from: Mav – on
But I can say that his behaviour disgusts me.

That may be the key to understanding what's actually going on.
We've got to try and separate our own personal views about his antics and look at it from an 'impartial' distance.
That's what I've tried to do but it still has me stumped as to why he's even in with a chance.

In the end I think the electoral system and the uphill task he faces to win enough significant states will bring him undone but the American population is a wide and varied entity and this is an election with candidates unlike any other.
There's just too many variables.
 

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #568 –
No doubt.  That's why I don't bother with sweeping claims that Trump can't win - how could I possibly know?  Even the current polling is unreliable.  Political pundits regard Labor Day (the 1st Monday in September) as the time when polling becomes a reasonably reliable predictor of what will happen 2 months later.