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Topic: Trumpled (Alternative Leading) (Read 855469 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2595 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Dow and the Asx are up due to the positive vaccine news and the USA election result, not Biden winning but because the Republicans will hold sway in the Senate which will create stability rather than having the Democrats being able to force lots of changes.

The Senate is tied at 48 each and won't be finalised until run-off elections are held.  Whichever party wins will have a small majority and, as we know, voting on party lines isn't a thing in the USA.  Interesting times ahead and hardly the stuff to encourage the Dow to rise.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2596 –
Quote from: DJC – on
The Senate is tied at 48 each and won't be finalised until run-off elections are held.  Whichever party wins will have a small majority and, as we know, voting on party lines isn't a thing in the USA.  Interesting times ahead and hardly the stuff to encourage the Dow to rise.
Stockmarkets work on sentiment.....reality usually catches up later.

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2597 –
It won’t be long before the Republicans have 50 seats. They’ll win in both Alaska and North Carolina in the next few days. Unfortunately, the seat in North Carolina was eminently gettable for the Democrats but their candidate was caught out chatting up a woman (not his wife) over a messaging app. Only 48% of the votes in Alaska have been counted, so maybe McConnell will hand back the seat because of obvious fraud.

The Democrats need both seats in the Georgia runoff to take the majority. Even though both parties will have 50 seats in that case, Kamala Harris will have a casting vote as VP.

But if the Democrats win only 1 of the runoff elections, the Republican 51-49 majority would mean McConnell couldn’t lose 1 Republican vote when considering any Bill or the Democrats will be able to pass it. Susan Collins, Mitt Romney, and Lisa Murkowski have shown some willingness to vote with the Democrats, so it is possible the Democrats won’t be shut out completely. On the other hand, there are Blue Dog Democrats such as Joe Manchin who are conservative enough to win in Red States like Montana. They may side with the Republicans on fiscal constraints.

But a mere seat’s advantage has much more importance than just voting down Bills. McConnell will control Senate business. In the current Senate, he was able to kill Bills by refusing to put them before the Senate when he knew they would pass with bipartisan support. He decided what would go before the Senate and when. Republicans would also control the Senate Committees, meaning the Republicans could block Biden’s Cabinet and Judicial nominees. This is what happened with Merrick Garland - he was a moderate nominee who would have had the votes if he went before the Senate but his nomination was blocked in the Judiciary Committee. Then there are sundry investigations Senate Committees could launch in the hope of creating another Benghazi “scandal”.

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2599 –
"Let's Make America Great Again"

"We Just did"

Actually, that is pretty good.

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2602 –
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!
 

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2603 –
Quote from: DJC – on
The Senate is tied at 48 each and won't be finalised until run-off elections are held.  Whichever party wins will have a small majority and, as we know, voting on party lines isn't a thing in the USA.  Interesting times ahead and hardly the stuff to encourage the Dow to rise.
Actually, this is the stuff that makes the DOW rise.

The Dow dislikes uncertainty.

A republican or Democrat majority with same president in power, leads to volatility, policy creation on the run, and a lot of undoing of previous implementations surrounding tax law, fiscal stimulus, strategy regarding environment, energy, war etc etc etc.

When the senate is split, there are a lot more checks and balances, and voting that eradicates the volatility, and the DOW likes that more than any party or person elected, because they know that the next 3 years will look roughly like the last 3 years.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2604 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Actually, this is the stuff that makes the DOW rise.

The Dow dislikes uncertainty.
I don't think there is one formula fits all, because there is an equally large part of the financial market that makes just as money from instability.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2605 –
As true as that is LP, financial markets still like certainty irrespective of whether or not some industries can make money from instability.

The lack of clear direction is a bigger concern than anything else, because the market is all about confidence.  Hence why Vaccine news causes a lot of stocks that are still having a lot headwinds rise exponentially.  Did you see what happened to energy and travel stocks particularly yesterday?  Surged by a ridiculous amount on the assertion we have a vaccine with a 90% success rate, with no real data to back it up.

FLT rose 16% on open.  Flight centre.  A company that released a capital note scheme to fill its coffers with money so they can remain liquid, whilst only making 12% of previous profits, which who knows what that does to its balance sheet.  Why?  because we "might" have a vaccine which means that they can finally start planning at returning to profit.

THAT is an example of what confidence can do to financial markets and what I am talking about.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2606 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
THAT is an example of what confidence can do to financial markets and what I am talking about.
I agree that it's a good thing, but I just worry that the part most loudly being touted is just a very small part.

Flightcentre is a great example, because in total it's a tiny fraction of the tourism and holiday trade. Locally small domestic vendors are gearing up for the biggest holiday season on record, because of the very same circumstance that Flightcentre rallies against! But you won't see it reported, because the myriad of smaller vendors are not a large monolithic entity that garnishes media support. Yet fiscally as an impact on the economy the small vendors add up to far more than Flightcentre ever will!

Sure, somebodies retirement fund or pension might be linked to a publicly listed company like Flightcentre, but not everyone's, and all those small vendors have superannuation, buy and employ locally. Some academics have even argued that the demise of a monolith like Flightcentre is more than compensated for by local small vendor growth, increased regional employment and a global reduction in emissions. But you won't read News Ltd reporting the last part!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2607 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
As true as that is LP, financial markets still like certainty irrespective of whether or not some industries can make money from instability.

The lack of clear direction is a bigger concern than anything else, because the market is all about confidence.  Hence why Vaccine news causes a lot of stocks that are still having a lot headwinds rise exponentially.  Did you see what happened to energy and travel stocks particularly yesterday?  Surged by a ridiculous amount on the assertion we have a vaccine with a 90% success rate, with no real data to back it up.

FLT rose 16% on open.  Flight centre.  A company that released a capital note scheme to fill its coffers with money so they can remain liquid, whilst only making 12% of previous profits, which who knows what that does to its balance sheet.  Why?  because we "might" have a vaccine which means that they can finally start planning at returning to profit.

THAT is an example of what confidence can do to financial markets and what I am talking about.
Yep....Corporate Travel went up about 18% based on sentiment....there are no extra planes flying or any travel happening its all about confidence and sentiment and thats where the easy money gets made by the big boys.

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2608 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Yep....Corporate Travel went up about 18% based on sentiment....there are no extra planes flying or any travel happening its all about confidence and sentiment and thats where the easy money gets made by the big boys.
They come from a base that's lost billions / trillions!

At the moment, it's a bit like buying a $100 lottery ticket, and celebrating that it's won $5.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #2609 –
I'd suggest you would need to be very diligent and read the fine print on the Trump "Save America PAC", to make sure just how your donated money could be spent.

Saving America or saving Trump?
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"