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For Discussion

December 15, 2015, 07:45:32 pm

The first of the 2016 Preditions in the media: Herald Sun today.

DARK NAVY BLUES

WOODEN spooners. It’s hard to see Carlton winning more than four games and climbing off the bottom of the ladder to avoid back-to-back wooden spoons. The Blues brought in 15 new players during the off-season and while they aren’t short on talent, they are on experience. Brendon Bolton will be given time to mould the list into a premiership outfit and 2016 will about giving them exposure. Carlton took four key position players from its five national draft picks, with Jacob Weitering the only one equipped to step straight into senior footy. Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow and Jack Silvagni will all take time.

Thoughts.

Re: For Discussion

Reply #1 – December 15, 2015, 07:52:14 pm

We will win more than 4 games.

Re: For Discussion

Reply #2 – December 15, 2015, 08:10:09 pm

Quote from: townsendcalling – on December 15, 2015, 07:45:32 pm

The first of the 2016 Preditions in the media: Herald Sun today.

DARK NAVY BLUES

WOODEN spooners. It’s hard to see Carlton winning more than four games and climbing off the bottom of the ladder to avoid back-to-back wooden spoons. The Blues brought in 15 new players during the off-season and while they aren’t short on talent, they are on experience. Brendon Bolton will be given time to mould the list into a premiership outfit and 2016 will about giving them exposure. Carlton took four key position players from its five national draft picks, with Jacob Weitering the only one equipped to step straight into senior footy. Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow and Jack Silvagni will all take time.

Thoughts.

Uninformed drivel

Curnow and Cuningham will get games under their belt in the first half of the season, McKay will break into the side in the second half of the season and Silvagni may get a game or two.

However, as Flyboy pointed out in another thread:

Quote from: flyboy77 – on December 14, 2015, 12:37:29 am

Plenty of non performers in 2015 for a host of reasons - not just Malthouse - so plenty of room for organic improvement even before the recent trade and draft periods.

If Kreuzer, Gibbs, Murphy, Walker (as a forward FFS) and Thomas have good seasons - that in itself is a big, big gain on 2015.

All we need is for a couple of the GWS and Adelaide retreads to step up and a good run with injuries and our list is significantly better than last season. Add in a competent coach and a modern game plan that suits the list and 7-10 wins is achievable.

Re: For Discussion

Reply #3 – December 15, 2015, 08:29:21 pm

Quote from: DJC – on December 15, 2015, 08:10:09 pm

Uninformed drivel

Curnow and Cuningham will get games under their belt in the first half of the season, McKay will break into the side in the second half of the season and Silvagni may get a game or two.

However, as Flyboy pointed out in another thread:

All we need is for a couple of the GWS and Adelaide retreads to step up and a good run with injuries and our list is significantly better than last season. Add in a competent coach and a modern game plan that suits the list and 7-10 wins is achievable.

Re the bold part. I disagree.
Silvagni will only get a game if we are dead last and tanking in the last couple of rounds. Otherwise, we'd be lucky to see him in 2017 i think. He hasn't even played footy for what 6 months?

The others may well get game time, but i'd suggest a lot later than you predict and only if injuries hit. Curnow is my tip to get gametime first. But i don't expect to see him before the halfway point.

The reason?
All the GWS/Adelaide boys we've got, together with the players we have coming back from injuries last year.
Players like Thomas, Byrne, Sheehan, Graham were all unavailable for most of the season.

I dunno, i'd go through 30-35 players before i got to any of our new recruits.

Re: For Discussion

Reply #4 – December 15, 2015, 08:43:52 pm

I see us improving no doubt. I don't think we will win another spoon. Surely a better coaching group with a better suited game plan along with players playing who want to win and stay at the club will be a good start for us. Thomas, Kreuzer getting more game time will also help. Surely we are good for 6 to 8 wins at least.

Re: For Discussion

Reply #5 – December 15, 2015, 08:59:32 pm

We've got the least AFL-proven players in the comp so we deserve every bit of our wooden spoon favoritism.

Injuries seem to be an ongoing factor for us unfortunately - Murphy shoulder not coming right already has to be a significant concern. Plowman hip operation. We've got a bit of a jinx going which sucks.

However... the biggest thing we have going for us is probably Bolton. If he can get it right his impact could be immediate and if we can somehow keep Kreuze/Cripps/Murph/Gibbs/Thomas injury free for the whole season we'll have a core to build around and be a lot more competitive.

At best 6 wins for me. At worst - lots of injuries and a total train wreck.

Re: For Discussion

Reply #6 – December 15, 2015, 09:21:27 pm

Quote from: kruddler – on December 15, 2015, 08:29:21 pm

Re the bold part. I disagree.
Silvagni will only get a game if we are dead last and tanking in the last couple of rounds. Otherwise, we'd be lucky to see him in 2017 i think. He hasn't even played footy for what 6 months?

The others may well get game time, but i'd suggest a lot later than you predict and only if injuries hit. Curnow is my tip to get gametime first. But i don't expect to see him before the halfway point.

The reason?
All the GWS/Adelaide boys we've got, together with the players we have coming back from injuries last year.
Players like Thomas, Byrne, Sheehan, Graham were all unavailable for most of the season.

I dunno, i'd go through 30-35 players before i got to any of our new recruits.

I'm wearing my optimist hat Kruddler

The fact that the original assessment doesn't take into account our retreads is the main reason why I reckon it's drivel!

However, Weitering should be in the mix from round 1 but probably not as a dedicated key defender. I agree that Curnow is likely to be next cab off the rank as he seems more physically ready to match it with mature bodies. Cuningham will need to light it up in the NBs if he is to get a run and McKay will probably come in as a third tall if he kicks a few bags in the NBs.

As you say, we have a lot of players with potential who, for one reason or another, didn't have much impact last season. With the exception of Weitering, and probably Curnow, our newbies will have their work cut out to get a game. However, I suspect that it will happen as part of their development, but they will not be gifted games.

That genuine competition for a game is one of the reasons I think we'll start to climb up the ladder.

Re: For Discussion

Reply #7 – December 15, 2015, 09:48:46 pm

Quote from: shadesy – on December 15, 2015, 07:52:14 pm

We will win more than 4 games.

Absolutely. We will be disrespected until teams find out the hard way if we can play or not.
But the biggest things will be how our list holds together. If we get the injuries we got this year, we are cooked. They are correct, we are very short on experience. If guys fall over, then we will be in trouble.
However, having Gibbs, Thomas, Byrne, Sheehan, Kreuzer, Murphy and Graham in and contributing, where Yarran, Henderson and Menzel did not or could not, will make us more competitive.
I do not expect miracles, but if we can keep something like our best 20 odd on the field, we will win games against 'good' sides. And that is not considering any reasonable contributions from our newbies.
We beat Port and should have beaten Adelaide before our list fell apart. Both of them are rated much higher than us. We will win games. But if we have to depend on our new chums and rookies, then we are in trouble.

I am not sure why we have been hit so hard by injury in recent times, but having Murphy and Plowman already have operations does not bode well. But it is something most teams will face. Take the best 6 players out of Hawthorn's lineup and they don't win either. In fact, the team on the bottom usually has a significant injury issue to players it cannot afford to miss. Looks at Gold Coast this year and in 2014: no Ablett and they were worthless.

Re: For Discussion

Reply #8 – December 15, 2015, 09:53:14 pm

Problem is while we will improve so will a lot of the other teams......4-6 wins is about right IMO.....with a few hammering's in between...
We have a lot of new players who dont even have a regular position to play in, its very much a experimental year IMO, 15 new players will mean a lack of system for a while
as players work out what their team-mates are doing and game plans dont get learned in one season...

We dont have a confirmed captain yet and lack leadership...the coach is a novice who learned to fly on a modern jet that you could set to auto pilot.......we are a DC4 that needs everyone playing well just to get off the ground......I would lower my expectations and not expect too much so we wont be disappointed and place pressure on BB.

I think we will be bottom four....

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Reply #9 – December 15, 2015, 10:31:30 pm

Wooden Spoon?

A little bit of stability around the place will ensure this doesn't happen.
Because if it does, there won't be any 'stability' around the place.

....and if anyone wants to argue that's 'old Carlton' thinking...watch what happens.

Re: For Discussion

Reply #10 – December 15, 2015, 10:48:42 pm

If we can get our senior guys all available and firing and we have been successful in choosing both our trades and one or two drafts, then we can be a lot more competitive next year. That sharper edge should breed more confidence in our guys that hopefully can lead to a few good wins.

We will need some luck too of course but if we can avoid too many injuries I'm hopeful of a much better year that leaves us with brighter hopes for the future beyond that.

It's essential we primarily strive to build a very confident, competitive and solid team environment in which we can develop our youth. I'm sure BB is the right man to do that.

Re: For Discussion

Reply #11 – December 15, 2015, 11:16:14 pm

Sad to say we should be wooden spoon favourites. We lost our best player this year, and teams will work out how to nulify Cripps. He is going to get so much attention in 2016 from scraggers. Hopefully he is working on his kicking so he can be dangerous around goals as that will allow him to shake tags.

I'm optimistic we could get 5 or 6 wins. But with so many new players, and an average established core we are going to take some hammerings. Injuries as alway will make a difference. Having Kruezer and Thomas play 15 odd games each will make a big difference.

Its amazing how every year we hope/anticipate the first year players will get a few games and do well. We hear about some 18 year olds being 'ready'. No they are not. If Silvangni gets a game in 2016 we will be in serious strife. If any of the first year players get more than 1 or 2 games we will have had a bad injury toll. We really want to see the likes of Boekhorst getting 10 or so decent games with 5 or 6 in a row toward the end of the season. Rowe to have been displaced by KJ by the end of the year. That would show good improvement. A strong showing by the NBs is vital to build a base for the longer term.

And a miracle win against Hawthorn in Launceston.

Re: For Discussion

Reply #12 – December 15, 2015, 11:26:43 pm

@ Vivian - I have no concerns about taggers on Cripps. In fact I wish them luck because they are gonna need it in spades. He will dispatch them with ease, too big and strong and his fitness is slowly becoming elite. He will be one of those midfield machines you cant stop. He is just a dead set bull.
Go Blues.

Re: For Discussion

Reply #13 – December 15, 2015, 11:45:04 pm

Quote from: kruddler – on December 15, 2015, 08:29:21 pm

Players like Thomas, Byrne, Sheehan, Graham were all unavailable for most of the season.

Imagine if we could full, uninterrupted preseasons and then season proper from the blokes in that list plus Kruze and Gibbs. There will be some serious competition for spots. If the injury gods smile upon us, we could surprise a few people.

Re: For Discussion

Reply #14 – December 15, 2015, 11:47:49 pm

We will finish 17th-18th next year, it would be a miracle to get any higher than that based on the list we are building. Which teams will we finish higher than should be the question.

Some of the new draftees will be given games so they get a taste of what it is like at senior level but only if they warrant the selection.

Four games ?? Might not win that many actually.

The win/loss column in 2016 doesn't worry me one iota, its the gradual development of the players both individually & collectively that has me seriously interested.

2018 is when we will start to push for finals.