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Topic: Good kicking is good football - Here is proof! (Read 5498 times) previous topic - next topic
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Good kicking is good football - Here is proof!

I noticed the last couple of weeks we had been converting pretty well in front of goal.
I remembered early on, we struggled with converting.

So on a hunch i decided to see if there was any correlation with our wins.

R1 - Tigers.
We had more scoring shots than the tigers, but they converted better and won.
R: 14.8.92  (Conversion - 64%)
C: 12.11.83 (52%)

R2 - Swans
Pretty soundly beaten, but they were much better in front of goal.
S: 20.11.131 (65%)
C: 10.11.71 (48%)

R3 - Suns
Similar to R2
GC: 13.17.95 (43%)
C: 5.11.41 (31%)

R4 - Dogs
Trend continues...
WB: 13.7.85 (65%)
C: 7.7.49 (50%)

R5 - Freo
We don't really kick better, but the opposition kick worse. End result = win
F: 9.14.68 (39%)
C: 10.12.72 (45%)

R6 - Bombers
For the first time all year, the team who converted the best actually lost.
E: 8.9.57 (47%)
C: 10.12.72 (45%)

R7 - Pies
Same scoring shots, yet we converted better and got the win.
Co: 12.12.84 (50%)
Ca: 15.9.99 (62%)

R8 - Power
We actually had less scoring shots, but converted better and got another win
PA: 13.13.91 (50%)
C: 14.9.93 (61%)

R9 - Kangas
Poor kicking against good kicking and soundly beaten.
NM: 17.11.113 (61%)
C: 6.10.46 (37%)

R10 - Cats
Less scoring shots, better conversion yields another win. Noticing a trend here??
G: 12.13.85 (48%)
C: 16.8.104 (67%)

R11 - Lions
Very good conversion rate, very good win.
B: 9.10.64 (47%)
C: 16.6.102 (73%)


So in 10 out of 11 matches this season:
1: If we convert better than the opposition do, we win.
2: If we convert worse than the opposition do, we lose.

In the other match (bombers) the conversion rate was almost identical (45-47%) and became essentially a 50-50 match, which we thankfully won.

Obviously there is more to it than a simple conversion rate, otherwise if your first score of the game was a goal, you wouldn't try and score again to ruin your perfect record. However, it clearly shows that converted well and restricting your opponents conversion rate has a very big say in the result of the game.

If everytime you go forward you kick a goal, it breeds confidence in your team and at the same time hurts the oppositions confidence levels.
If everytime you go forward you kick a behind, it breeds doubt in your own team. When the opposition ultimately score a goal, it deflates your confidence more than normal.

Confidence and belief is key at this level and it shows in the results. Converting on the scoreboard grows both.

Re: Good kicking is good football - Here is proof!

Reply #1 –
Very good point. We also have to take into account the way we play.  Cutting the opposition open with fast ball movement, hitting our targets in transition, and having somebody gut running into open space means you're going to kick a goal far more often.  Slow ball movement, bombing into a crowded forward line, and taking hasty snaps, or kicking set shots from tough spots, is going to result in more misses, and more rushed behinds.  So the stats might also reflect the style of play and disposal efficiency too.  But going back to your original point, it certainly does help boost our confidence (and also deflate the opposition) when goals are kicked, rather than missed.

Re: Good kicking is good football - Here is proof!

Reply #2 –
Helps that Casboult is kicking a little straighter. Yes, every bad miss costs you 5 points (not quite that simple admittedly but it makes the point) so a few of them become costly. We're doing so much better there recently and that's gets reflected on the scoreboard.

Kicking around the ground has improved alot too (not withstanding the 3rd qtr yesterday), as has handpassing. Handpassing isn't finding grass as it was earlier in the season, which just stops you in your tracks. Clean execution there and you can move thee ball so quickly.

Re: Good kicking is good football - Here is proof!

Reply #3 –
Here I was thinking that our disposal efficiency was the main reason we are doing better.

We still get burnt on the turnaround when coming out of defence but it happens less frequently this year.

"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Good kicking is good football - Here is proof!

Reply #4 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Here I was thinking that our disposal efficiency was the main reason we are doing better.

We still get burnt on the turnaround when coming out of defence but it happens less frequently this year.

Our disposal efficiency has improved considerably this season.  It's not that skills have got better, it's more that players have a little more time to execute.  To a large extent that extra time is created by our team defence and pressure on the opposition.

As for our improved scoring efficiency, I haven't looked at any data but I suspect that we are taking more high percentage shots.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball