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Re: Goaltracker

Reply #75 –
The rules are trying to make the game faster, more high scoring and more of an offensive spectacle.

The Crows and GWS are showing the way - more mobility, more flexibility, more fitness / running ability, greater speed of leg and greater speed of ball movement

Re: Goaltracker

Reply #76 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
We need to be wary of how we view these things.

Statitistically we may score less or even with where we were, but is that consistent across the entire competition??

We may have improved to be where we are now relative to the rest of the competition and likewise their numbers might be different.  We dont know that answer at this stage as its a bit early to do anything but project where we will finish and each season will have its own nuances with some teams blowing out in some circumstances and not others.

What I estimate will be a factor, is that scores for and against on average will be lower in 2017 across the entire competition which means that if we are scoring at a similar rate to last season, then we have improved.


I think any attempt to look at totals ignores what the competition is doing, and any rule changes implemented can sometimes make big differences to teams ability to score such as rotation, sub rule, etc.
I'm not quite sure I totally get the logic, given the hypotheses about scoring rates going down isn't correct - scoring rates overall hasn't changed much for the top teams [it generally doesn't move more than a goal year to year], except that Adelaide are scoring 20% more than the highest team this time last year! They score 50 points more than us per game.

We were third last in scoring last year [behind Essendon and Dockers], but both those teams have improved by 5 and 3 goals per game vs last year. We are exactly the same, and are therefore last this year - so by being the same as last year we are relatively worse compared to the comp.

All historical analysis will tell you that a side needs to be scoring around 13 goals minimum per game [around 90 pts] to make the 8. That's a 'par score', and has been for some time. As mentioned the rules are all focused on increasing scoring rates. We haven't scored anything like this since 2013 [when we finished 9th].  

The simple fact is that if you don't average over 90 pts you will lose more than you win. We have scored 70 points on average for the last 75 games and won 21 - roughly 1 in 4. This ratio and our ladder position won't change until find [recruit, trade, develop] more consistent quality goal kickers than what we have right now.

The greatest knock on our recruiters has been our total failure to find A grade KPF's or other goal kickers - we have successfully recruited 2 in 20 years [Fev and JK] and 2 mid size / small forwards [Waite & Betts] in the same period. We got rid of all 4 of them and have never looked like finding even half decent replacements for any of them! 



Re: Goaltracker

Reply #77 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
The rules are trying to make the game faster, more high scoring and more of an offensive spectacle.

The Crows and GWS are showing the way - more mobility, more flexibility, more fitness / running ability, greater speed of leg and greater speed of ball movement

Agree, but that doesn't necessarily correlate to more scoring for whatever reason just less stoppages and more end to end action where the last kick entering fifty is a turnover.

Sound familiar??

;) ;)

What sets GWS and Adelaide apart is not necessarily their ability to score easily but the rate in which they score efficiently!


@sydneybluesfan

You cant make that assertion based on scores per week.  Its a biased result.  We had played different teams to now, and those teams are scoring differently than they did last season.  North Smashed us last year, and did it easily.  This time it turned into an arm wrestle and we almost got the chocolates.


"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Goaltracker

Reply #78 –
The purpose of the thread was really no more than to track the progress to beat the 224 team total goals and Wright's individual total of 22 last year.

But to consider that after 10 rounds of football there is only 2 points between our 2016 and 2017 totals is pretty fascinating.

The perception that our defence is vastly improved yet we've had more points kicked against us this year is also a strange result.

Yep... different opposition, different weather conditions, a difference in play across the league, a whole heap of factors impact... so drawing conclusions musty be taken with a bit of care.
I still find the results after 10 rounds interesting.

Re: Goaltracker

Reply #79 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Agree, but that doesn't necessarily correlate to more scoring for whatever reason just less stoppages and more end to end action where the last kick entering fifty is a turnover.

Sound familiar??

;) ;)

What sets GWS and Adelaide apart is not necessarily their ability to score easily but the rate in which they score efficiently!

......................................

Some teams simply have more scoring ability than others - whether this is because of the forwards, better mids, better or more attack-orientated coaching  etc., I'm not sure. In 1995, we scored 2357 points for, so even though the rules have an influence, I think the quality of your cattle and the coach's ideas about footy are of greater influence.

The point sbf makes is fair enough - the percentage and points for of top 4 teams is pretty consistent over many, many years. As I previously highlighted, last season was an exception, and other exceptions were the Ross Lyon / Paul Roos Saints and Swans teams, also as previously discussed. Generally speaking, top 4 teams average about 100-110 points for, with percentage of between 110-120

For whatever reason, we have been stuck in traffic for the last few seasons.

EDIT : the Malthouse 2010 Pies team also scored 2349 points for, so even Mr Defence himself likes an offensive spectacle.
 

Re: Goaltracker

Reply #80 –
Quote from: Lods – on
The purpose of the thread was really no more than to track the progress to beat the 224 team total goals and Wright's individual total of 22 last year.

But to consider that after 10 rounds of football there is only 2 points between our 2016 and 2017 totals is pretty fascinating.

The perception that our defence is vastly improved yet we've had more points kicked against us this year is also a strange result.

Yep... different opposition, different weather conditions, a difference in play across the league, a whole heap of factors impact... so drawing conclusions musty be taken with a bit of care.
I still find the results after 10 rounds interesting.

I agree. It puts into perspective how we're travelling.

I still think the pressure on the midfield and our ability to cut through the opposition midfield pressure is more important than who we have standing at either end.

Re: Goaltracker

Reply #81 –
Quote from: Lods – on
But to consider that after 10 rounds of football there is only 2 points between our 2016 and 2017 totals is pretty fascinating.

...

I still find the results after 10 rounds interesting.

Fascinating and interesting?

Not much going on in Dapto Lods??

To me it makes perfect sense. It's what we had last year, so we'll do similar.

I actually think we should be further ahead due simply to a comparitive lack of injuries with respect to last year.

Re: Goaltracker

Reply #82 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Fascinating and interesting?

Not much going on in Dapto Lods??

To me it makes perfect sense. It's what we had last year, so we'll do similar.

I actually think we should be further ahead due simply to a comparitive lack of injuries with respect to last year.

2 points difference in one game is close
2 points difference in 10 rounds is....

Re: Goaltracker

Reply #83 –
Quote from: Lods – on
The purpose of the thread was really no more than to track the progress to beat the 224 team total goals and Wright's individual total of 22 last year.

But to consider that after 10 rounds of football there is only 2 points between our 2016 and 2017 totals is pretty fascinating.

The perception that our defence is vastly improved yet we've had more points kicked against us this year is also a strange result.

Yep... different opposition, different weather conditions, a difference in play across the league, a whole heap of factors impact... so drawing conclusions musty be taken with a bit of care.
I still find the results after 10 rounds interesting.

Yes Lods, very interesting results for students of the game  :)

I expect Bolton to put more emphasis on scoring in the second half of the season.  McKay and Kerr will probably debut and it wouldn't surprise me if LeBois gets a chance too.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: Goaltracker

Reply #84 –
Quote from: Lods – on
2 points difference in one game is close
2 points difference in 10 rounds is....


It is even curiouser when you consider in 2015 after R10 we had scored 737 pts. So there is a 9 point spread across the last 3 years, or a 1% differential. In 2015 we won 1 game in the first 10 rounds, 5 last year with 730 points, and 3 games with 728 pts this year.

The numbers don't lie - they are amazingly consistent over the last 54 games. We haven't improved scoring at all, and as a result we are still struggling to win 1 in 4 games. In BB's first 32 games our average hasn't moved at all [from the prior year] or gotten any better, so thinking that somehow he will flick a switch in the next 12 games and improve the scoring significantly is wishful and optimistic thinking. All we can hope for mid season is that he keeps changing things up and giving opportunities to different guys to see if they can add something to the set up.

The argument about whether it is the midfield or the forwards that make difference is a moot point. You clearly need both - Adelaide have the highest number of talented and experienced goal kickers, and despite having only a 'developing' midfield [remember they wanted Gibbs] they are outscoring other teams ATM by an amazing rate. Our best years have always been when we had good to great forwards and a strong spread through the midfield.

Right now we have 1 solid citizen [Wright] & 1 inconsistent, dumb and erratic back up ruckman [Cas] as the cornerstones of our forward line. Add to that a bunch of 1st/2nd year draftees. The more you think about it the more frustrated you get that we are in such a mess, and a long way from getting it solved.

Re: Goaltracker

Reply #85 –
Solving it takes 50+ games experience for Curnow, SOSOS, McKay, Weit, Lebois, etc.

What us your solution? Recruit an experienced player I guess? If so which one?

Re: Goaltracker

Reply #86 –
Ill try this again, and make the arguement even easier this time.

Last year, we had a tall forward kick 17 goals for the season, and he got delisted and retired from AFL (Andreijs Everitt).

We are doing well to be performing at the same output considering that fact alone.

I will state with confidence that scoring goals is down across the competition, irrsepective of teams at the top end kicking slightly more, as the bottom teams are conceding less on average than they did last season.

Finally, we also have another factor.  The players are more used to the decrease in rotation and are starting to combat this fact in different ways.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Goaltracker

Reply #87 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Ill try this again, and make the arguement even easier this time.

Last year, we had a tall forward kick 17 goals for the season, and he got delisted and retired from AFL (Andreijs Everitt).

We are doing well to be performing at the same output considering that fact alone.

I will state with confidence that scoring goals is down across the competition, irrsepective of teams at the top end kicking slightly more, as the bottom teams are conceding less on average than they did last season.

Finally, we also have another factor.  The players are more used to the decrease in rotation and are starting to combat this fact in different ways.
I'm trying to understand where the 'confidence' comes from that is the basis of your argument, because the stats I am looking at tell a different story. What numbers are you looking at??

Rd10 2017 across all teams the average score for is 92.3, Rd10 2016 across all teams the average score was 92.2. So scoring rates across the comp are identical to same time last year. By the end of 2016 the average score had dropped to 89, so you could argue that scoring rates this year are actually up versus FY last year, but it's a moot point.

Your point about AE is exactly right - if you lose a player who consistently kicks 18 goals and don't replace him with another player of similar or better output, you will go backwards. We didn't recruit anyone who is looking like doing that number, but others have improved slightly [Cas / SOJ] so we stay square. But given we were 3rd last in scoring last year, my contention is that 'staying square' is a really bad outcome. And as has been shown, because the bottom teams have improved their scoring versus last year, we are actually now ranked dead last in scoring.

I don't really follow how the rotations effect this?? The objective of reducing rotations by the AFL is to reduce congestion, which may [or may not] increase scoring because the ball is 'in play' more often. The stats shown above would say that there has been no impact on actual scoring rates thus far.

Re: Goaltracker

Reply #88 –
A huge factor in our lack of scoring this season and last is Bolton's focus on defence.

I expect him to let the boys of the leash in the second half of the season and we should hit the scoreboard more often. 
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: Goaltracker

Reply #89 –
Quote from: DJC – on
A huge factor in our lack of scoring this season and last is Bolton's focus on defence.

I expect him to let the boys of the leash in the second half of the season and we should hit the scoreboard more often.

Definitely I think there could be some truth in this. BB is trying to win imo but not at the expense of ending up with a blowout against us which can be demoralising. Be interesting to see how we go for the second part of the year but I think the emphasis may still lean more towards trying to establish a defence that can control games.
Reality always wins in the end.