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Topic: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide (Read 69254 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #225 –
@PaulP, thanks for that post, it is excellent and highlights the case without being as derogatory as my own posts. I've basically labelled them morons that cannot see their own contradictions!

Do you think your post will change any attitudes?

I think you are wasting your time, the posters making the case are entrenched in their opinion.

Haters just gotta hate!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #226 –
Quote from: LP – on
@PaulP, thanks for that post, it is excellent and highlights the case without being as derogatory as my own posts. I've basically labelled them morons that cannot see their own contradictions!

Do you think your post will change any attitudes?

I think you are wasting your time, the posters making the case are entrenched in their opinion.

Haters just gotta hate!

All of us want what's best for the club, and we will have different opinions on how that should occur.

The fact that a number of different individuals and regimes are hanging on to these two means that they must be doing something right, even if they're not showered in accolades, awards etc.

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #227 –
I am a hater.
When we invest THE best draft pick on a guy that says 8 years later he has not really put the most he has into his career then yes I hate.
He performs exactly as he says, like he is just happy to be an AFL footballer.
I do not believe that is the type of player you want mentoring your elite talent.
If you believe the young guys don't hear and see that lack of 100% commitment then there is something wrong.
Gibbs and Murphy have had a huge opportunity to take the club forward but it simply hasn't happened.

I believe they both had terrible role models at Carlton and their careers have suffered accordingly.

Let's move em on at years end and start with a new group

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #228 –
Quote from: JonHenry – on
I am a hater.
When we invest THE best draft pick on a guy that says 8 years later he has not really put the most he has into his career then yes I hate.
He performs exactly as he says, like he is just happy to be an AFL footballer.
I do not believe that is the type of player you want mentoring your elite talent.
If you believe the young guys don't hear and see that lack of 100% commitment then there is something wrong.
Gibbs and Murphy have had a huge opportunity to take the club forward but it simply hasn't happened.

I believe they both had terrible role models at Carlton and their careers have suffered accordingly.

Let's move em on at years end and start with a new group

You've been steadfast in your position on these two, and you are, like all of us, welcome to your opinion. If you believe that we are now on the right track, and that we have the right people in place making the right decisions, how will you feel if these two are still on our list in 2019, 2020 ? 

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #229 –
Quote from: JonHenry – on
I am a hater.
When we invest THE best draft pick on a guy that says 8 years later he has not really put the most he has into his career then yes I hate.
He performs exactly as he says, like he is just happy to be an AFL footballer.
I do not believe that is the type of player you want mentoring your elite talent.
If you believe the young guys don't hear and see that lack of 100% commitment then there is something wrong.
Gibbs and Murphy have had a huge opportunity to take the club forward but it simply hasn't happened.

I believe they both had terrible role models at Carlton and their careers have suffered accordingly.

Let's move em on at years end and start with a new group

If we extend your logic to all players on the list, then the list can only go backwards. Simply because the likelihood a replacement will be a Kane Lucas type is far greater than the likelihood a replacement will be an equivalent of the better players.

I made the Cripps / Weitering argument to expose this flaw in the logic, yet the flawed logic persists!

In reality Gibbs, Murphy and Kreuzer are above average draft picks, they have the runs on the board and in that respect are even more valuable than Cripps or Weitering because despite injuries they are proven to have sufficient longevity and durability to reach significant milestones at the AFL level. Cripps and Weitering are yet to do that!

To have a 50/50 or better chance of finding equivalent replacements for Cripps, Weitering, Gibbs, Murphy or Kreuzer you will need at least 3 picks below 10 in the draft for each player of that type you trade away. The players age is irrelevant, because it takes years to get that many 1st round picks. The AFL knows this, which is why they give GWS so many picks, you cannot avoid the math!

The logic of your argument is being applied at Hawthorn, a club that players want to move to, yet they will most likely fail! One media scribe described the Dawks strategy as "Doing their very best to beat the system!" The warning for other clubs is this, despite the Dawks being seen as a more favourable destination by players which is a purely human influence, the Dawks are unlikely to succeed! You cannot beat the math, your opinion, human opinions makes no difference! The Dawks are going down the same flawed path as a gambler playing the lottery, roulette or a poker machine! The Gambler's Fallacy!

If a club tries to shortcut the process they must eventually be overtaken by the clubs with the most low draft picks, because the club trying the shortcut runs out of players to trade for low draft picks, which is the only way to get low draft picks if you don't finish on the bottom!

In fact the Dawks best chance of success are to stay down were they are now and get the low draft picks with Norp and Freo! Which by the way would reduce our chances of success in the long term!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #230 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
You've been steadfast in your position on these two, and you are, like all of us, welcome to your opinion. If you believe that we are now on the right track, and that we have the right people in place making the right decisions, how will you feel if these two are still on our list in 2019, 2020 ?

I think we will have made a mistake, and it will affect our development as the kids will have role models that are happy to go through the motions

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #232 –
Quote from: JonHenry – on
I think we will have made a mistake, and it will affect our development as the kids will have role models that are happy to go through the motions

Well you may get your wish, or at least half of it.

To the best of my knowledge, Murph's current contract expires at the end of season 2018, by which time he'll be 31. I can't see him getting another long term contract, for 3 reasons :
1. reset
2. age
3. injuries

So my guess is he will either retire, or be offered a standard "golden oldies" contract i.e 1 year plus option, low wage, no guarantee of playing every game etc. By this time, a succession plan would hopefully be in place and he may have already relinquished the captaincy. 
 

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #234 –
Quote from: JonHenry – on
I am a hater.
When we invest THE best draft pick on a guy that says 8 years later he has not really put the most he has into his career then yes I hate.
He performs exactly as he says, like he is just happy to be an AFL footballer.
I do not believe that is the type of player you want mentoring your elite talent.
If you believe the young guys don't hear and see that lack of 100% commitment then there is something wrong.
Gibbs and Murphy have had a huge opportunity to take the club forward but it simply hasn't happened.

I believe they both had terrible role models at Carlton and their careers have suffered accordingly.

Let's move em on at years end and start with a new group

Amen brother, well said.

The whole internet "haters" concept is tricky when it comes to topics one is passionate about. I can truly say when the team runs out at the beginning of every match that I LOVE and admire every player for choosing to, and having the ability to play for my beloved Blues - something I was never talented enough to do.  Don't think I've ever hated a player (except Franchina  :P).  I admit to developing a strong dislike for Fevola yet I would still turn up week after week and "oooh" and "ahhh" along with the rest of us.

I think Murphy has had an incredibly unlucky run. When you read his career progression on Wiki it becomes apparent how, every time he was hitting his straps, he'd suffer a major injury.

I also think the game has changed markedly since he was recruited - and I think this points to a major flaw with Carlton's recruiting strategy.  There are smaller players going around (e.g. Dahlhaus, Puopolo) but they're quicker by hand and/or demon tacklers and/or strong overhead.  We seem not to have taken into consideration how quickly the game can change and blindly choose the seemingly 'best pedigreed' player on paper.  Gibbs is a prime example of this viz a viz the Kernahan connection.  While Hawthorn was picking up gangly colts with raking left feet or cherry picking dour, miserly defenders with specific roles in mind, we were content to take the easy option of taking the number 1 junior player as judged by so-called 'experts'  ::)  It was a lazy strategy - one which gave the recruiters an easy 'out'. Remember that ad - "no-one ever got fired for choosing IBM".

To say Gibbs and Murphy have been consistently among our best players for 10 years is really highlighting the fact that double nothing is still nothing.



Keyboard warrior #24601

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #235 –
I saw a picture of Dixon consoling Weitering at the end of the match. This picture summerised the match for me, Carlton had young men still developing and Port had grown men fully developed. We lost two mature bodied players in Kreuzer and Thomas before the match and then proceeded to have two more injured during the game. While very disappointed by the game on Friday night, I was more happy after watching the Northern Blues on saturday afternoon because I could see what the club is trying to do.
Carlton's game is based on having pressure around the contest, at the moment because our players aren't physically developed enough, too many players are drawn to the contest, and when we don't win the contest, we are then exposed out the back. This happened against Gold Coast and Port Adelaide.
Against Essendon, we won the contest because Essendon players didn't want to commit. They were pretty pathetic. The ball when it went into our defence, came in slowly and we were able to set up and repel. Our lack of forward development meant we didn't slaughter them by 20 goals like we should have.
What I take out is that our best player this season has been Plowman. He is one year further down his development than the others. So in another 12 months, Silvagni, Curnow, Weitering, Cunningham and Mckay are all going to be good players, along with Picket and Marchbank, in two years time, Polson, SPS, Macreadie, Fisher, williamson and Kerr will also be good players. Along with Cripps, Docherty, Plowman & Byrne. This gives us a base of 17 good young players to build the team around for the next 10.
This is what I got out of last weekends games.

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #236 –
Whilst it's in the realm of a hypothetical, I imagine if you put Gibbs and Murph in the recent Hawks / Cats teams, you would see two different players. Conversely, put Hodge, Danger etc. in our team, then you would also see 2 different players.

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #237 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
Whilst it's in the realm of a hypothetical, I imagine if you put Gibbs and Murph in the recent Hawks / Cats teams, you would see two different players. Conversely, put Hodge, Danger etc. in our team, then you would also see 2 different players.

It's the second hypothetical which begs further analysis. Why do you think that may be the case?  I'm of the opinion that the Mitchells (sorry, can't write about Hodge - he disgusts me), Dangerfields, Abletts, etc. of this world remain consistently committed to excellence no matter who they play for.  Slight change to style/gameplan, perhaps?
Keyboard warrior #24601

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #238 –
Quote from: IvanAwfulbigone – on
It's the second hypothetical which begs further analysis. Why do you think that may be the case?  I'm of the opinion that the Mitchells (sorry, can't write about Hodge - he disgusts me), Dangerfields, Abletts, etc. of this world remain consistently committed to excellence no matter who they play for.  Slight change to style/gameplan, perhaps?

Being committed to excellence is one thing. Playing consistent, high quality football is another, and is easier when you're surrounded by quality. Dangerfield, Hodge, Mitchell have always played in very good clubs, good players, good culture etc. When good players leave our club to go somewhere better, they prosper (2E, Betts, maybe even Laidler and Waite, although the latter two might be stretching the friendship a little). 

Nathan Jones from Melbourne is a player I really like and have a lot of time for - do you think he would've fared better at the Hawks/cats etc ? Because I do. Until recently he's been surrounded by muck. He has never been AA (although he deserves to iMO), and he has less Brownlow votes than either Gibbs or Murph.

Re: 2017 Round 5: Post Game Prognostications: Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #239 –
Quote from: Blue Moon – on
I saw a picture of Dixon consoling Weitering at the end of the match.

You mean recruit whispering, come on over to us, we can take away your pain! ;)
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"