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Author Topic: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.  (Read 23567 times)

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Offline Lods

  • Administrator
  • Senior Coach
A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« on: October 31, 2018, 07:56:48 AM »
Kids are a year older.
Our backline was decimated by injury last year...hopefully more settled next year.
Injury and a lack of a good pre-season affected some of our midfield as well.
Good luck to any defence lining up on McKay, Curnow and McGovern :D
A small goal kicking forward would top that off nicely and we have a few 'possibles" there.

The real issue will be the midfield applying enough pressure to aid the defence and at the same time providing enough forward entries and scoring opportunities for 'Charlie McHarry'

Offline flyboy77

  • Senior Coach
Re: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2018, 08:16:57 AM »
Murphy still has good footy in him, injuries withstanding.

How fast will the new blokes like Setterfield (21 next year), Kennedy (22 next year) and Lang (24 next year) start making a meaningful contribution?

The first two ex GWS blokes are both big bodies and (if fully fit) should go a long way to helping out Crippa.

Then, to our young draftees:

Willo (21 next year, late)
Cuners (22 next year - make or break for David)
Dow (20 next year - we have a player here folks)
O'Brien (20 next year)
Fish (21 next year, see Dow...)
Polson (21 next year)
SPS (21 next year)

And likely 18yo Sam Walsh....all of the above will start hitting peak output in 2020 more or less - I'd expect to make the 8 in 2020. Next year maybe 10-12th spot.

Hopefuly we get Barlow and/or Grigg. We have  a real need for one or two more mature agers.
GF in 2019, then 3 flags back to back!

Offline LP

  • Hall Of Fame
  • Cold Blue Steel
Re: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2018, 10:01:45 AM »
And likely 18yo Sam Walsh....all of the above will start hitting peak output in 2020 more or less - I'd expect to make the 8 in 2020. Next year maybe 10-12th spot.

We need to making finals and losing well before we are ready to make a real long term impact, they will need the experience.

We do not want to be one hit wonders, like a the starving homeless man invited to a feast then sent back to live in the gutter!

Also, the longer the lead-time to finals the lower our chance of retaining layers. Fans might hold the line and maintain the faith long term, but aging players won't if they are not given some positive short term signs! Believing otherwise is just a wish!
The Force Awakens!

Online ElwoodBlues1

  • Hall Of Fame
Re: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2018, 10:48:14 AM »
Kids are a year older.
Our backline was decimated by injury last year...hopefully more settled next year.
Injury and a lack of a good pre-season affected some of our midfield as well.
Good luck to any defence lining up on McKay, Curnow and McGovern :D
A small goal kicking forward would top that off nicely and we have a few 'possibles" there.

The real issue will be the midfield applying enough pressure to aid the defence and at the same time providing enough forward entries and scoring opportunities for 'Charlie McHarry'

For me it also depends what the other clubs are doing, we might improve but we saw teams like Collingwood, North, Melbourne etc improved out of sight and the ones that were meant to drop off didnt.
I have no doubt we will improve but it has to be measured against the other teams... only Gold Coast and Stkilda are teams I would confidently say we are going to beat.....
There isnt a game plan yet and IMO our defense is dodgy in the key spots......dont see Jones and Weitering holding up vs the teams that have real deal KP forwards....
Mcgovern, Charlie and Harry will need to kick a lot of goals for us to win because down the other end its going to be carnage.....

Offline Lods

  • Administrator
  • Senior Coach
Re: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2018, 11:01:04 AM »
There isnt a game plan yet and IMO our defense is dodgy in the key spots......dont see Jones and Weitering holding up vs the teams that have real deal KP forwards....
Mcgovern, Charlie and Harry will need to kick a lot of goals for us to win because down the other end its going to be carnage.....

I think the defensive side of things comes back to the mid-field pressure I talked about in the OP.
It's not the only factor....but if the mids are getting dominated and the ball is coming in quickly and often that's when players like Jones and Weitering will get caught out.
If Jones drifts away from his man and there's a turnover midfield....or he backs his judgement and attacks the ball while a group of opposition midfielders are waltzing through ours... then we're in strife.

Online PaulP

  • Hall Of Fame
Re: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2018, 11:19:13 AM »
We'll be bottom 4 in 2019 IMO. Too many unproven aspects to our game, and too many things have to go right to finish much higher.

Offline jeza

  • Leadership Group
Re: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2018, 11:28:39 AM »
For me it also depends what the other clubs are doing, we might improve but we saw teams like Collingwood, North, Melbourne etc improved out of sight and the ones that were meant to drop off didnt.
I have no doubt we will improve but it has to be measured against the other teams... only Gold Coast and Stkilda are teams I would confidently say we are going to beat.....
There isnt a game plan yet and IMO our defense is dodgy in the key spots......dont see Jones and Weitering holding up vs the teams that have real deal KP forwards....
Mcgovern, Charlie and Harry will need to kick a lot of goals for us to win because down the other end its going to be carnage.....

I know our defense looked a bit dodgey at times last year but in all honesty I thought they held up brilliantly for large chunks of the year.

Our midfield was non-competitive and the ball was flying straight down to the backline without any pressure what-so-ever. Critical turnovers in really dangerous positions constantly. I think out backline will be our strength if they're all fit and the midfield is able to pressure the D50 entries. Plowman, Doc, Simmo, Jones, Weitering, Marchbank, Newman, Williamson, McGovern (at times) - it's a good mix and there is a lot of depth there.

I'd also like to see Samo play half back for a year. I think he could make a real impact with his smarts and ball use and get his confidence right up. He's got to cut out those silly 15m sideways chips that get cut off. But it would be a good spot for him to develop. He could get 25+ pos a game and allow Doc to play midfield - where I think he will end up - and where we desperately need him.

Dow could be a big mover this year. He's the one I think could jump right up the rankings quickly. He's got the natural strength / speed / ability to progress quickly. I agree with SOS - he should have been taken at pick 1 last year. A more natural midfielder than Rayner who will be good but a Jake Stringer type and Brayshaw doesn't have the speed.

If Fisher can take that step from a 19 pos per game player to a 25+ pos per game player it will be massive for us also. Such a good user and always finds space to run at the opposition.

Murphy - needs to play wing / flank where he could still be damaging. He only damaged us last year. He was putrid. Injuries may have caught up to him though. Have to hope for an injury free run.

I'm extremely positive about next year but if we're changing 4-6 players every single week like we did last year we'll be winning the spoon again. We just can't afford key guys to be out but if we have a good run we could be looking at a rapid rise.

Offline JonHenry

  • Top Shelf Player
Re: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2018, 11:43:11 AM »
I know our defense looked a bit dodgey at times last year but in all honesty I thought they held up brilliantly for large chunks of the year.

Our midfield was non-competitive and the ball was flying straight down to the backline without any pressure what-so-ever. Critical turnovers in really dangerous positions constantly. I think out backline will be our strength if they're all fit and the midfield is able to pressure the D50 entries. Plowman, Doc, Simmo, Jones, Weitering, Marchbank, Newman, Williamson, McGovern (at times) - it's a good mix and there is a lot of depth there.

I'd also like to see Samo play half back for a year. I think he could make a real impact with his smarts and ball use and get his confidence right up. He's got to cut out those silly 15m sideways chips that get cut off. But it would be a good spot for him to develop. He could get 25+ pos a game and allow Doc to play midfield - where I think he will end up - and where we desperately need him.

Dow could be a big mover this year. He's the one I think could jump right up the rankings quickly. He's got the natural strength / speed / ability to progress quickly. I agree with SOS - he should have been taken at pick 1 last year. A more natural midfielder than Rayner who will be good but a Jake Stringer type and Brayshaw doesn't have the speed.

If Fisher can take that step from a 19 pos per game player to a 25+ pos per game player it will be massive for us also. Such a good user and always finds space to run at the opposition.

Murphy - needs to play wing / flank where he could still be damaging. He only damaged us last year. He was putrid. Injuries may have caught up to him though. Have to hope for an injury free run.

I'm extremely positive about next year but if we're changing 4-6 players every single week like we did last year we'll be winning the spoon again. We just can't afford key guys to be out but if we have a good run we could be looking at a rapid rise.

Agree with most of this, fitness, both injury wise and improved running ability (A Russell) will be massive factors.
I don't think we have been anywhere near fit enough, and a 10% improvement plus a smaller injury list would see our confidence skyrocket.
Not having spuds playing and having quality replacements will help a bit.
SPS, Dow, Fisher, O'Brien, Pickett and Polson all need to become running machines next year.
A fit Williamson and Docherty will improve the back line enormously

Offline flyboy77

  • Senior Coach
Re: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2018, 02:19:15 PM »
Setterfield and Kennedy the keys to seeing a highly competitive midfield imo.
GF in 2019, then 3 flags back to back!

Offline sandsmere

  • Rising Star Winner
Re: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2018, 02:37:31 PM »
Setterfield and Kennedy the keys to seeing a highly competitive midfield imo.

Spot-on fb.

They're the 2 that can help Cripps the most.

A mate in Sydney reckons Neuman played some good footy in the midfield too, but didn't get  a lot of time there because
they had plenty of midfielders.
I spent most of my money on Women and grog.
The rest I just wasted.

Offline Thryleon

  • Club Legend
Re: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2018, 02:56:14 PM »
We'll be bottom 4 in 2019 IMO. Too many unproven aspects to our game, and too many things have to go right to finish much higher.

+1.

It's like the reverse of murphy's law.

Everything has to go perfectly for us to have a dramatic improvement to our fortunes.

We will be doing well to have won about 6-8 games, and I also think thats a realistic target to aim for, and yet that still will see us in that bottom 4-6 scenario.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Offline flyboy77

  • Senior Coach
Re: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2018, 03:59:13 PM »
Spot-on fb.

They're the 2 that can help Cripps the most.

A mate in Sydney reckons Neuman played some good footy in the midfield too, but didn't get  a lot of time there because
they had plenty of midfielders.

Newman looks ideally suited to a wing? The link man delivering the ball I50?
GF in 2019, then 3 flags back to back!

Offline Lods

  • Administrator
  • Senior Coach
Re: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2018, 04:00:44 PM »
I'm just just curious as to what the 'landscape' club wise would look like with another bottom 4 finish.
I'm sure the hard -core would be hanging on.
But the seepage of support would be that much greater and the hard core that much thinner.

I'm not sure our prospects for picking up talent at next year's trade/ draft period would be great either ...so the future would be doubtful.
Nope...these blokes have to come on next year, and that means improvement in wins and position.

Offline flyboy77

  • Senior Coach
Re: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2018, 04:01:37 PM »
+1.

It's like the reverse of murphy's law.

Everything has to go perfectly for us to have a dramatic improvement to our fortunes.

We will be doing well to have won about 6-8 games, and I also think thats a realistic target to aim for, and yet that still will see us in that bottom 4-6 scenario.

Nope, we only need a modest amount of luck with injuries to improve markedly.

Loads of organic improvement (almot inevitable) plus the return of injured players (quality ones at that) and a swag of quality new faces.

Need to beat the Tigers Rd 1 and get a much needed shot of confiudence....
GF in 2019, then 3 flags back to back!

Online ElwoodBlues1

  • Hall Of Fame
Re: A Rapid Rise Would Not Surprise.
« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2018, 04:17:15 PM »
I think the defensive side of things comes back to the mid-field pressure I talked about in the OP.
It's not the only factor....but if the mids are getting dominated and the ball is coming in quickly and often that's when players like Jones and Weitering will get caught out.
If Jones drifts away from his man and there's a turnover midfield....or he backs his judgement and attacks the ball while a group of opposition midfielders are waltzing through ours... then we're in strife.

Weitering isnt a key defender yet......like Marchbank he prefers the intercept game rather than having to body up on the likes of  Dixon, Lynch, Kennedy etc....
You look at the list and its Jones and Weitering only vs the big key forwards, there is nothing else...McGovern isnt a key backman and has just said he prefers playing forward....
We need another key tall back who has some grunt and kegs on the frame.......you look at GWS, its their weakness too, SOS really never addressed the key back area and its cost them.
Booting Rowe and losing Silvagni to retirement meant we should have recruited a mature replacement but we didnt....
Midfield pressure for sure will help but you look at Setterfield and he is a new kid with only two games and Kennedy is still a doubtful quantity vs real class and we are not even sure he can stay on the park for the majority of the season. Docherty back is great and hopefully Williamson is fit to go as well but you look at round 1 and Lynch and J. Reiwoldt and it makes me uneasy with two very flakey opponents like Jones and JW playing on them.....
« Last Edit: October 31, 2018, 05:56:01 PM by ElwoodBlues1 »

 

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