Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

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Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

February 17, 2019, 03:05:29 pm

Alleged list management guru, Chris Pelchen, has cast his eye over all 18 lists and he doesn't see a great deal of improvement from us this season as well as a slow climb back up the ladder:

Quote

17. CARLTON
It's become a perennial question – will Carlton be any better this year? While there has been much said and written about the Blues in recent years, with most of the commentary being negative, they are on the right track. Rebuilding a player list that had decayed to the extent of Carlton's was always going to be a huge task. Although it's reasonable to query some of the club's list decisions during the past four to five years, their overall direction is sound – albeit it's taking a considerable amount of time to bear fruit. And it's going to take a considerable amount more time. The Blues are still three to four years from being a finals contender again. But with the likes of Patrick Cripps, Charlie Curnow, Jacob Weitering, Caleb Marchbank, Paddy Dow, Sam Petrevski-Seton and Zac Fisher, they are building the foundations of a talented team. The arrival of Mitch McGovern and No.1 draftee Sam Walsh provides even greater reason to believe that the ship has been righted. Expect another challenging year for the Blues in 2019 but look beyond the now and focus on the horizon – it's more than just an oasis.

Movement from 2018 rankings: no movement (17th)
Three-year projected list ranking (2022): 10th

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/every-afl-list-rated-and-premiers-west-coast-are-seventh-20190215-p50y21.html

If Pelchen's 2018 rankings are any guide, we could finish in the eight

I suspect that his rankings are based on a fairly superficial analysis but I'm not disappointed at our 17th placed ranking; it's easier to exceed low expectations.

For what it's worth, I reckon we will finish in 14th place and we will be top four in 2022.

Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

Reply #1 – February 17, 2019, 04:50:57 pm

If your club doesn't draft the players that Pelchen thinks they should he kicks your playing list endlessly.

But I've heard more than once from fairly high up official sources that Pelchen lives on stealing the thunder for hard work done by others. You'd be surprised to hear who the Dawks wouldn't have picked if the Dawks board had listened to Pelchen instead of Buckenara!

Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

Reply #2 – February 17, 2019, 04:53:35 pm

I'm reconciled to the fact that we may need another year to bed in some of our talent but I'll enjoy watching the young guys developing this year. I'm confident we have a sound foundation for the future now. I'm not going to mozz anything by forecasting a ladder position - maybe after I've watched 2 - 3 games.

Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

Reply #3 – February 17, 2019, 06:28:38 pm

We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..

Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

Reply #4 – February 17, 2019, 07:09:09 pm

Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on February 17, 2019, 06:28:38 pm

We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..

Yes, but given the quality of our kids - and their ages - our prospective rate of improvement should far exceed all others in the next 1-3 years.

If Harry and weiters come of age this year, for example.....

And remember Setterfield and SPS both hit 21 this year - the former lacks games but is an extreme talent as is Samo, whom from all reports has busted it on the training track....

Sure,we're right in not expecting a lot from 18 or 19 year olds - but blokes in the 20-22 yo bracket (3rd or 4th seasons, often with 50 games + under their belts):

21   Garlett, Jarrod     28   22yr 9mth   3 May 1996   180cm   74kg   South Fremantle   Midfield
Forward
33   Pickett, Jarrod     17   22yr 5mth   18 Aug 1996   178cm   77kg   South Fremantle   Forward
45   Goddard, Hugh (R)   10   22yr 5mth   24 Aug 1996   197cm   96kg   Geelong Falcons   Defender
22   Marchbank, Caleb   35   22yr 2mth   7 Dec 1996   193cm   90kg   Murray Bushrangers   Defender
30   Curnow, Charlie     47   22yr   3 Feb 1997   194cm   91kg   Geelong Falcons   Forward
44   Owies, Matt (R)     0   21yr 10mth   19 Mar 1997   183cm   82kg   St Kevins
28   Cuningham, David   16   21yr 10mth   30 Mar 1997   183cm   83kg   Oakleigh Chargers   Midfield
Forward
7   Kennedy, Matthew   31   21yr 10mth   6 Apr 1997   188cm   89kg   Collingullie Ashmont Kapooka   Midfield
23   Weitering, Jacob   56   21yr 2mth   23 Nov 1997   195cm   95kg   Mount Eliza Football Club   Defender
1   Silvagni, Jack     43   21yr 1mth   17 Dec 1997   191cm   89kg   Oakleigh Chargers   Forward
10   McKay, Harry     15   21yr 1mth   24 Dec 1997   200cm   95kg   Gippsland Power   Forward
43   Setterfield, Will     2   21yr     5 Feb 1998   190cm   87kg   Sandringham Dragons   Midfield
Forward
5   Petrevski-Seton, Sam   42   20yr 11mth   19 Feb 1998   180cm   74kg   Claremont   Midfield
Forward
29   Polson, Cameron   13   20yr 11mth   11 Mar 1998   177cm   76kg   Sandringham Dragons   Midfield
Forward
26   Macreadie, Harrison   8   20yr 10mth   11 Apr 1998   196cm   91kg   Henty   Defender
42   LeBois, Kym (R)    0   20yr 8mth   22 May 1998   175cm   70kg   North Adelaide   Forward
25   Fisher, Zac     34   20yr 8mth   15 Jun 1998   175cm   72kg   Perth   Midfield
Forward
36   Kerr, Pat        4   20yr 6mth   31 Jul 1998   197cm   97kg   Oakleigh Chargers   Forward
31   Williamson, Tom 15   20yr 2mth   12 Dec 1998   189cm   82kg   North Ballarat Rebels   Defender
19   Schumacher, Angus   0   19yr 11mth   16 Mar 1999   190cm   84kg   Bendigo Pioneers   Defender
Midfield
12   De Koning, Tom     2   19yr 7mth   16 Jul 1999   201cm   92kg   Dandenong Stingrays   Forward

10 first round draft picks in that lot - 7 of those 10 in their respective years, top 10 picks.

Not all will go bang, a few never, and certainly not all at once.

But go bang most of them will - that's what the stats strongly suggest....

And then there's a lad like Fisher who already plays like a seasoned 100 gamer.

Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

Reply #5 – February 17, 2019, 09:21:36 pm

Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on February 17, 2019, 06:28:38 pm

We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..

ps finals in 2020 entirely realistic...

Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

Reply #6 – February 17, 2019, 09:36:19 pm

Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on February 17, 2019, 06:28:38 pm

We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..

I heard on radio the other day how Melb want to give Goody a rolling contract. They then talked about BB's employment contract and I think it was Sam Edmund who chimed in with something along lines that BB's contract has an element of security in it until 2020. Anyone else know what this means?

Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

Reply #7 – February 17, 2019, 11:08:58 pm

Quote from: Gointocarlton – on February 17, 2019, 09:36:19 pm

I heard on radio the other day how Melb want to give Goody a rolling contract. They then talked about BB's employment contract and I think it was Sam Edmund who chimed in with something along lines that BB's contract has an element of security in it until 2020. Anyone else know what this means?

Bolton's original employment agreement specified a period (two years IIRC) during which he would receive a full payout if his services were terminated. I understand that, as his employment agreement has been extended, the payout period has also been extended. If Bolton's services were to be terminated before the end of the 2020 season, he would receive his full salary for the period of this agreement (2021?).

Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

Reply #8 – February 17, 2019, 11:12:39 pm

Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on February 17, 2019, 06:28:38 pm

We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..

Yes, we will only climb the ladder if we improve faster than the likes of Gold Coast, St Kilda and Fremantle, and teams like North, Brisbane, Bulldogs, Sydney fall away.

A change in fortune can be very rapid though, as we've seen in the last three or four seasons.

Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

Reply #9 – February 18, 2019, 07:41:33 am

The CFC, and Bolton, would want to throw the masses a bone well before then.... Another four win season, or the Adelaide pick swap going sour and it will turn nasty, real nasty, very quickly.

Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

Reply #10 – February 18, 2019, 07:48:16 am

Quote from: DJC – on February 17, 2019, 11:08:58 pm

Bolton's original employment agreement specified a period (two years IIRC) during which he would receive a full payout if his services were terminated. I understand that, as his employment agreement has been extended, the payout period has also been extended. If Bolton's services were to be terminated before the end of the 2020 season, he would receive his full salary for the period of this agreement (2021?).

Yes. There was an agreement signed in May 2018.

Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

Reply #11 – February 18, 2019, 08:49:30 am

Bolton is on a contract that's apparently not a contract.

Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

Reply #12 – February 18, 2019, 09:28:04 am

I think the key difference is that if nothing happens with a regular contract, the contract will expire and the person would no longer be the coach. A new contract would need to be negotiated.

With Bolts, if nothing happens he will continue to be our coach indefinitely, maintaining the same conditions he has now.

Whilst it will never remove speculation about his position, it does remove the time pressure that all the others have as they reach the end of their contract period.

Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

Reply #13 – February 18, 2019, 09:44:03 am

I thought I'd dig up some stats from the last 10 seasons. These are examples of rapid rises up the ladder over 1 or 2 seasons.

14th > 2nd (1 season)
13 > 3 (1)
18 > 7 (1)
14 > 6 (1)
10 > 2 (1)
16 > 4 (2)
12 > 4 (1)
16 > 7 (2)
13 > 3 (1)
18 > 9 (2)
13 > 2 (2)
16 > 4 (1)
14 > 6 (1)

On average, 1 team will jump up 8+ ladder positions in a single season.
Who will it be this year?

Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

Reply #14 – February 18, 2019, 10:19:04 am

The difficulty with predicting where we'll finish is that we could improve quite significantly without winning many more games. That is, we were so dreadful last year that marked improvement might not translate to wins.

This year, I'll be *happy* if we:
- win 5+
- beat someone in the top six; and
- don't lose more than 1 game by 40+.

That would set us up for a genuine climb the year after.

I'll be disappointed with anything less.