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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1725 –
Quote from: capcom – on
It is a big difference given the relative distances and ease of travel access.  Moreover, our comparatively tiny population; i.e. Canada and the United States radically different death rates.  Multitude of reasons
Death rates, as a count of total deaths over the total case count, tends to hover either side of 3%, excluding one or two outlier countries.

Canada is 3.8%
USA is about 2.3%

I suppose when you talk about deaths 1.5% difference could be considered radical, but you have to keep in mind it is an average about a mean that is influenced heavily by reporting standards and politics.

The USA is a bit contrary, because states report differently dependant on politics there is no Federal standard, just like there is no Federal standard for reporting in Australia which is even more ironic given COVID is a Federal responsibility for Australia. ( I know I hear the naysayers, but if you think it's a State issue, ask yourself why the Feds bought vaccines without consulting the states who will basically buy them off the Feds. Maybe they just did it out of the goodness of Frydenberg's heart! ;D )

A good example of variability, if you die from a heart condition because you can't get into a COVID full hospital, some areas report you as a cardiac failure while others report as a COVID death, both are correct but political preferences mean most choose to report one or the other including the deniers. But it's no different than when people fleeing a bush fire die in a car crash, it's a death due to the bush fire and a road fatality. Correct reporting lists both, not one or the other, like falling off the ladder getting out of your burning 2nd story bedroom is a death from fire and ladder fall!

The global average barely deviates from 3% as each new week passes.

The huge variation region to region is deaths per million of population, which is basically a function of intervention strategy over lethality.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1726 –
Yep LP ... agree with all that

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1728 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
https://theconversation.com/moderna-follows-pfizer-with-exciting-vaccine-news-how-to-read-these-dramatic-developments-149935
COVID treatment looks almost certainly to be administered like Influenza vaccine, so we shouldn't be surprised to find out the vaccination is going to be annual. I suspect this is why Vic is building a new billion dollar production facility, plus the transport/logistical issues. I note when COVID started and the transport restrictions hit very large shipments of Influenza vaccine went bad sitting stuck in transit.

People like Trump and Boris want to be very careful in declaring their immunity to soon, firstly because there are different SARs-CoV-2 strains and there is no direct evidence yet getting one delivers immunity against the others, secondly almost all reputable studies so far have shown a massive decline in anti-body counts over a 4 to 6 month period after any infection. That is on parity with Influenza immunity, which requires annual vaccination to be given at the right moment to get people through the high risk period.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1730 –
We should close the border with the Croweaters  ;)

Imagine how the bogan with a slogan would respond to that  ::)

I guess it just shows how difficult it is to keep COVID in check without a vaccine.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1731 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Its back on in Adelaide, Covid panickers hording and sending us back to the dark days when this started.
https://au.yahoo.com/news/got-kidding-coles-shopper-blasted-selfish-act-215119274.html
FMD, Kimberley Clark in Mount Gambier South Australia make about 30% of the countries bog roll at that site. SA won't have a shortage if the borders close, they'll be buried alive in the stuff, KC will probably have to wind back production to stop Mount Gambier looking like a giant popcorn maker!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1732 –
https://theconversation.com/buying-and-distributing-a-covid-19-vaccine-will-involve-hard-ethical-and-practical-choices-149980

https://theconversation.com/we-may-have-to-accept-a-good-enough-covid-19-vaccine-at-least-in-2021-148168

https://theconversation.com/you-may-be-able-to-buy-a-covid-vaccine-ahead-of-the-government-rollout-but-jumping-the-queue-comes-at-a-price-149972

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1733 –
I see you've found "The Conversation" @PaulP‍ , it is generally not a popular site because of the way it's governed, crackpots do not get to post there!

On the queue jumpers, buying stuff off the Internet is fraught with danger, and for many reasons might not deliver the result the jumpers need. For example, injections are not all the same, they can or may need to be Subcutaneous (into the fat layer between the skin and muscle), Intramuscular (deep into a muscle) or Intravenous (through a vein) to be effective. If you don't know what you're doing you can waste the effort and expense as well as potentially be harmful. Secondly, you are buying from a OS source, that might not have a solution for the strain that is dominant in your domestic location, but they will still sell it to you.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1734 –
Quote from: LP – on
I see you've found "The Conversation" @PaulP‍ , it is generally not a popular site because of the way it's governed, crackpots do not get to post there!

I've been reading them for about 12 months. Very good site IMO. When our finances improve, I'll certainly take up a subscription.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1735 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
I've been reading them for about 12 months. Very good site IMO. When our finances improve, I'll certainly take up a subscription.
It's good even as a freebie, donating is optional. I previously would get full access when I was working with CSIRO via the CSIRO network as CSIRO are a partner/sponsor, I really miss the electronic journals I had access to during those projects. I'm not involved with any CSIRO projects at the moment so for now I'll stay as a free user, I can't say I've noticed much of a difference not having the sponsor/user access, if there is even any, but I do believe organisations that sponsor get some different level of access and editorial, at least that use to be the situation.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1736 –
With what appears to be Sars-CoV-2 having a 14 to 21 day incubation period, South Australia locking down for 6 days doesn't seem to be much more than a political move, it's a bit piss-weak really!

I realise the issues are proportionally smaller in SA, but even so how does a lock-down work within a six day period, how do they setup, will they even be finished closing avenues of distention by the time it ends?

So I suspect it'll be 6 days, as a politically agreeable starter, until about day 4 or 5 when it gets extended.

My associates in the UK said spot fires in various counties took about 4 weeks to stabilise, then the lunatics broke free protesting against restricted freedoms and effectively put a torch to earlier efforts and buried any progress they had made!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1737 –
My guess is to help tracing.  The quarantine period hasn't changed for positives and close contacts.

Locking everyone else down means if you get on top of the early spread you win.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1738 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
My guess is to help tracing.  The quarantine period hasn't changed for positives and close contacts.

Locking everyone else down means if you get on top of the early spread you win.
Yep, epidemiologists are saying the 6 days is enough to break the cycle, primarily because the South Australian lock-down will be severe and the SA public are expected to be compliant over the week having seen what happened in Victoria.

 So I suppose if that is true, it seems the dissenters must have been the really the big problem in Victoria!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"
 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1739 –
Ive noticed a trend during covid.  There are logical reasons behind each and every action taken even if it seems like there isn't.  You can find hypocrisies in each decision too.

Thing is thats not the point. An early 6 day lockdown is borderline sufficient provided people both get tested when they display the appropriate symptoms and isolate properly in the interim.

It all falls over when they don't get tested and fail to isolate appropriately.

A perfect example of this phenomenon is the rhetoric about mask wearing and how it doesnt help given you can take it off when you're out at a dinner service.  Thing is, if you wear it before meals and after meals that will eliminate about 4 or 5 contacts on the way to the table and passing people in the streets.  Sure the chances of it being effective reduce with more take off put on and handling, but the chances of transmission and contraction reduce with each step you take even if its not 100% effective.

Fact of the matter is, nothing is completely effective and all you're doing is reducing chance of transmission overall not elimination.

This is where the argument gets lost and is muddied.  Its akin to advocating that seatbelts don't work because people don't wear them properly or because the chance of incident isn't that high and if a serious incident occurs it wont help, but thats wrong.  Thing is its all about playing the percentages.  Assuming I have covid and you don't, the chance of you catching covid off me is reduced if both wearing masks is the important bit.  The fact that it happens anyway or is suspect is quite irrelevant. 
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson