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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3105 –
Quote from: LP – on
Interesting, is the perception of risk to freedom and civil liberty proportional and rational?

If we had more people willing to be vaccinated, wear masks and follow simple restrictive measures would we need the lockdowns at all?

Instead we have civil disobedience, protests and victimisation of innocent traders. Protests that by the way do not just target Sars-CoV-2 vaccine, but all vaccines!

It reflects pretty poorly on our society, we do not live under Mussolini, yet the reactions to his sort of dictatorship seems to survive to this day.

Interesting, in the UK the Health Authorities suggested Lockdowns should be greatly limited, not because they didn't want to control the pandemic but because the UK's experience from war years is that civil compliance breaks down after a few weeks of restriction at best, and when that happens complacency sets in and the problem becomes bigger.


LP, this latest lockdown had everyone home for 2 weeks, the virus made its way into an aged care setting, and infected two people whom had been vaccinated, and were taken to hospital to seperate them from the rest of their community.

All the while we had 600 plus exposure sites, for less than 100 cases of community transmission in a month resulting in 0 hospital admissions to treat ill people.

Basic risk assessment tells me, that the perceived risk and actual risk doesn't quite measure up.



Risk analysis is all about the data.  The data shows that the risk profile of this disease is actually very low.  We have that data after 1.5 years of living through months of lockdowns, and rather extreme protection measures (last year, I could forgive this, but this year, it looks a bit bonkers).

Why do I have to wear a mask to walk my dog with minimal community transmission?
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3106 –
As an epidemiologist said a long time ago, a stitch in time saves 9.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3107 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Why do I have to wear a mask to walk my dog with minimal community transmission?
Because of the civil disobedience!

Personally, I think your argument is built on a disregard or neglect for the effects of lockdown, it seems to be asserting that the low cases numbers are a sign that lockdown is not needed and not an effect of lockdown. To me this is a confusion of cause and effect, the order of events matter.

@Thryleon‍ I'm not trying to start a war on this subject, or in the other thread for that matter, but ultimately I see these issues as a matter of trust in authority or expertise. I understand your scepticism on the data and vaccines, and I think you are correct to ask the questions, for that matter science is built on asking questions. But I'm not sure it's right to pick and choose which authorities or which bits of data to trust, regardless of the subject matter. It's very important to be consistent, perhaps even more important for making progress to be consistent than correct. It's consistency that delivers traceability and repeatability, and then eventually after even more questions a truth.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3108 –
If we decide to go from an elimination strategy to managing Covid in the community, wearing masks, social distancing and restricting gatherings become more important, not less. Obviously, vaccinating to a level to ensure herd immunity would be preferable.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3109 –
Quote from: Mav – on
If we decide to go from an elimination strategy to managing Covid in the community, wearing masks, social distancing and restricting gatherings become more important, not less. Obviously, vaccinating to a level to ensure herd immunity would be preferable.
Yes, it's interesting, masks and distancing have been a social norm in some of our northern neighbours for quite a while now, but I'm a bit concerned it hasn't really helped a place like Singapore where the public is ultra compliant. Which to me is a sign that even Singapore has to a degree underestimated the risk in a hope that economic damage is minimised.

I've heard a few specialists argue that as much as masks might physically reduce transmission, it's the change in behaviour that they bring which is even more important.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3110 –
Quote from: Mav – on
As an epidemiologist said a long time ago, a stitch in time saves 9.

That argument is one that can be followed until the appropriate data is gathered and measurable.  We have much better information about COVID, the prophylactic cost, the ongoing mental health cost, and the ongoing risk profile to warrant a review of our approach to dealing with this risk.  Thats what I want done.

Quote from: LP – on
Because of the civil disobedience!

Personally, I think your argument is built on a disregard for the effects of lockdown, you seem to be asserting that the low cases numbers are a sign that lockdown is not needed and not an effect of lockdown. To me this is a confusion of cause and effect, the order of events matter.

No, my argument is built on the premise and factual data that shows we are ruining many lives trying to save few lives.


Thats the same argument being mounted for vaccinating against Covid too by the way.  You know the one you are advocating based on the data that we might potentially ruin few lives trying to save the many (so to speak) which means we should vaccinate. 

Dont worry about wars.  This isnt about war.

I dont need to be right, I want to challenge my own thinking here, which is why I am asking such questions on a footy forum, devoid of the emotive arguments you get from people who take this all very personally and dont add enough balance to their arguments.


"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3111 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
That argument is one that can be followed until the appropriate data is gathered and measurable.  We have much better information about COVID, the prophylactic cost, the ongoing mental health cost, and the ongoing risk profile to warrant a review of our approach to dealing with this risk.  Thats what I want done.

No, my argument is built on the premise and factual data that shows we are ruining many lives trying to save few lives.

Thats the same argument being mounted for vaccinating against Covid too by the way.  You know the one you are advocating based on the data that we might potentially ruin few lives trying to save the many (so to speak) which means we should vaccinate. 

Dont worry about wars.  This isnt about war.

I dont need to be right, I want to challenge my own thinking here, which is why I am asking such questions on a footy forum, devoid of the emotive arguments you get from people who take this all very personally and dont add enough balance to their arguments.
Firstly, vaccines save lives they do not cost them, as mentioned earlier if the data is followed on deaths after vaccination is shows that the broad trend is that deaths from clots are reduced. The problem is social media and media bend the category, they ignore the general trend and want to discuss a very specific subset cherrypicked for the purpose which they want portrayed as the norm.

I'm not sure what ruining a life means in the pandemic lockdown perspective, much of the pain and suffering is a consequence of civil disobedience  against the lockdown rather than the mechanics of the pandemic lockdown itself. While I concede the lockdown civil disobedience doesn't exist without the lockdown, I can't say that low case numbers would persist in the absence of lockdown.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3112 –
I would personally prefer governments and people to be more cautious than less in situations like this. There will be negative outcomes and criticisms no matter what policies the government has in place.

If we followed a more sensible model rather than the rubbish American capitalist system, we would have planned and budgeted for such an event long ago (scientists has stated for decades that such an event was beyond any shadow of a doubt, a matter of when, not if). That way, we could have had proper restrictions and financial / mental health etc. support for the citizens, and the impacts on society would be less. We've had the double whammy of a financial meltdown and a pandemic, and the great majority of people will be struggling for a long time IMO.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3114 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
It killed a few young healthy people. If they only give it to over 50s then if you die they can use your age against you.
The four latest patients with Blood Clots from AstraZ are all over 50...i guess underlying causes will be the excuse given.
Just heard a younger man over in Greece had the AstraZ and was next found dead next day...perfectly healthy up until then.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3115 –
Quote from: LP – on
Firstly, vaccines save lives they do not cost them, as mentioned earlier if the data is followed on deaths after vaccination is shows that the broad trend is that deaths from clots are reduced. The problem is social media and media bend the category, they ignore the general trend and want to discuss a very specific subset cherrypicked for the purpose which they want portrayed as the norm.

The data shows that the vaccine has indeed been linked with death you seem to ignore this and want to explain it away.  Why?

Quote
I'm not sure what ruining a life means in the pandemic lockdown perspective, much of the pain and suffering is a consequence of civil disobedience  against the lockdown rather than the mechanics of the pandemic lockdown itself. While I concede the lockdown civil disobedience doesn't exist without the lockdown, I can't say that low case numbers would persist in the absence of lockdown.

Surely even you are a bit more worldly to see the effects of lock down on people?

People are actually suffering LP.  Some of them are being denied medical treatment because COVID (cancellation of all non life threatening elective surgery isn't exactly leaving people in a situation where they are happy and healthy.

Some people are struggling to put food on the table.  Some people have lost their careers let alone their jobs.

Businesses (particularly small ones) have gone under.

That leaves people feeling a lot of angst.

The few people I know who had covid, and had extended symptoms are now 100% fine.

No ongoing issues, nothing.

People are going through grief, alone.
People are having weddings with no guests.
People are having kids, and their fathers are not being allowed to spend more than an hour a day with them for the first days of their life.
People are being admitted to hospital near death and being denied access by their family.  That grief of not being able to say goodbye (covid or not) is no easier.
People are dying of terminal illnesses during this period, having spent their last few months doing nothing.  They are already dead, they are just waiting for the finality of death because life in lockdown isnt exactly living, unless you have a steady income stream, a cushy job where you can work remotely, or an essential service.

Then you have the inability to see people.  Widows and widowers have a bubble mate, but they aren't exactly living their best life.

Its very myopic to think that this is all easy enough  with no consequences.

Not everyone has a nice home to lock down in.  They might live in a share house, or live in a really unfriendly suburb.

Foodbanks have never had less food and people to work for them feeding the poor and the homeless.

I am bamboozled by your response and the lack of empathy it shows. 


Its quite absurd. 
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3116 –
So, to sum up: vaccines are dangerous and aren’t the answer but we shouldn’t have lockdowns or restrictions either. Just let it rip because people will be 100% after a while.

Operating businesses is a risk/reward scenario. If you’re unlucky enough to be starting out when a depression hits, you may lose your business. If you’ve started up a burger joint and a Maccas opens up across the road, good luck. In either case, you’re not going to get much of a chop out from government.

I wonder what country people think when owners of regional tourist venues demand that the government let Melburnians travel freely to their towns so their businesses will prosper. I wonder if any residents would prefer to see the infected stay where they are.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3117 –
Quote from: Mav – on
I wonder what country people think when owners of regional tourist venues demand that the government let Melburnians travel freely to their towns so their businesses will prosper. I wonder if any residents would prefer to see the infected stay where they are.
@Mav‍ I was thinking on this very issue last night when watching the reaction to the Qld absconders.

Just a week ago we had regional tourism operators demanding Melbournians be set free, when that couple escaped and turned positive without blinking many of the same were asking for them to be jailed!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"
 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3118 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
I am bamboozled by your response and the lack of empathy it shows.
And they'll live to tell the tale to their descendants, like so many of their ancestors who survived a war!

I have to wonder if those lonely and isolated might also be some of the most likely to suffer at the hands of Sars-CoV-2, disease tends to work that way.

Much of the commentary surrounding the pain of lockdown is a commentary about human nature, and not directly the effects of lockdown. I will continue to assert, if the dissenters went away, the lockdown would be swifter and more effective, and we might not be in the 3rd or 4th iteration. We do not have far to go to test this, interstate or Auckland will suffice.

I'll give you a nice example.
A small little local discrete private gym, frequented and subscribed to by a fairly affluent set. Many of these people are doctors, medical specialists, politicians, accountants, lawyers, well to dos, many merely inconvenienced by the lockdown. They go here because it's discrete, only a couple of hundred members and they won't run into people they do not want to talk to. For some their income is not diminished, for some they are even turning more profit not operating a mainstream office. But they can't go to gym so they cancel the $6 to $10/week memberships heaping duress on the little gym operator. If the gym survives, when things return to normal, patrons will have to sit in their and listen to them bragging about their favourite under $500 Burgundy, or their next holiday to a private French run Fiji resort, or how servicing costs of the Astin Martin have gone through the roof, if the gym survives. They have the power to maintain the quality of life and financial status of that gym operator, but instead they opt to save their pittance per week and suspend or cancel their memberships, what's in it for them after all they aren't getting their $6 worth! Of course if the gym operator doesn't survive the pandemic, they'll be sprouting soliloquys of such shame and pity, how harsh life can be!                 Such is human nature!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3119 –
The one that amazed me was when a farmers’ representative was advocating a few months back that the Victorian Government should allow hundreds (or was it thousands?) of people in from overseas to pick fruit and the like. When the journo noted the government’s position was that only a small number of people could be processed through hotel quarantine and that included returned travellers, he helpfully suggested we could get them to quarantine in other countries so they could be waved through on arrival. I can just imagine if Scotty from Marketing’s National Party mates had rammed that one down our throats, the Fed Govt would be blaming the States for mishandling the influx.