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Topic: CV and mad panic behaviour (Read 940061 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3930 –
There is no conspiracy, just some conspiracists with a very poor understanding of how the testing works, cherry picking isolated facts and twisting them painted in a technical veneer.

Discussing PCR cycle thresholds is a distraction and diversion, labs only proceed to calculate the viral load after a positive detection, primarily because the system is deliberately weighted towards false positives which is the safe option, but these are all filtered out when viral loads are calculated.

Firstly, the labs just do not have the time to test all the samples collected to a deep thermal cycle threshold. Most are processing using the system defaults of 20 to 30 thermal cycles(equipment dependant) requiring between 30min to 60min to complete a PCR run.

The typical systems use 20 to 30 thermal cycles, the reports comparing the BGI PCR system are discussing the ability of the BGI to replicate the sensitivity and accuracy of the existing systems as part of a validation against systems most of which are not BGI. But even so it does not mean the BGI PCR systems are run to a high number of cycles as asserted by some detractor claims.

I believe the default BGI PCR use 30 cycles, the validation claim is that at 30 cycles the BGI will miss cases with very low viral load, not report false positives at a much higher rate. One cause/outcome is not the inversion of the other, asserting that the BGI needs more cycles to achieve low level sensitivity leads to more false positives is a false equivalence, because they just don't use it that way!

Secondly, the process is false positive biased at about 3% of all positives are false positives, and that is at the calibrated run length for the default of 20 to 30 thermal cycles(equipment dependant), so too many more cycles and you get a false positive anyway which is clearly not the case give how many positives are reported as a percentage of all tests. Do enough cycles with any machine and you get a false positive, which is why positive results are always repeated.

Finally, verification typically occurs by other means/methods and can take several days to complete, this is when you get confirmations of both viral load and the variant. After verification, the false positive rate falls from 3% of all positives to about 1 in 10000 of all positives, hardly an earth shattering conspiracy! :o
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3932 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
https://www.9news.com.au/national/australia-astrazeneca-vaccine-two-deaths-recorded-in-past-week-from-rare-blood-clotting-disorder/7605e3d5-29fc-4408-9638-b08b2ccca39f

6 5 Deaths from AstraZ vs 5 Deaths from the Delta Variant?
EFA
https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/two-more-deaths-linked-to-astrazeneca-vaccine
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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3933 –
I’m keen to apply EB’s statistical analysis to other real world causes of death.

We think of nuclear weapons being scary, but if you total all deaths from firearms/guns compared to nuclear weapons since gunpowder was invented, it’s clear that firearms/guns have caused many, many times more deaths than nuclear weapons. Clearly, firearms/guns should be banned and private ownership of nuclear weapons should be allowed.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3934 –
Quote from: Mav – on
I’m keen to apply EB’s statistical analysis to other real world causes of death.

We think of nuclear weapons being scary, but if you total all deaths from firearms/guns compared to nuclear weapons since gunpowder was invented, it’s clear that firearms/guns have caused many, many times more deaths than nuclear weapons. Clearly, firearms/guns should be banned and private ownership of nuclear weapons should be allowed.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki had about 100k of their citizens welded into the landscape who probably wouldnt agree with you.....
Nuclear testing in the USA contributed to about 340-460k excess deaths over a 20 odd year period..
This link also reports on the effects of Nuclear weapons.....you might like to apply your analytical skills and report back.
https://www.gcsp.ch/global-insights/75-years-later-nuclear-weapons-still-kill
Kim Jong Un is a big believer in Private ownership of Nuclear weapons, loves a bit of recreational ballistic missile fun does KJ....you always see him at his happiest when he has just let one fly, you are in good company with your theory on Private ownership.
https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/78/590x/korea-703886.jpg.


Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3935 –
5-11 million Russians died in action in WW2 and none from nuclear weapons. And guns/firearms have been killing people in armed conflict as well as civilian conflicts for a millenium.    

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3936 –
Quote from: Mav – on
5-11 million Russians died in action in WW2 and none from nuclear weapons. And guns/firearms have been killing people in armed conflict as well as civilian conflicts for a millenium.    
From memory the Wehrmacht and the Waffen SS had MG42's, 88's and the odd Tiger tank, no nuclear weapons to fire unfortunately for them. I'm sure if they had a couple of Ballistic Missiles that they would have stayed at home with the fire on, a good schnapps and just pushed a few buttons, closest they got were the V1 and V2 rockets but alas for them the war was lost at that stage.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3937 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
From memory the Wehrmacht and the Waffen SS had MG42's, 88's and the odd Tiger tank, no nuclear weapons to fire unfortunately for them. I'm sure if they had a couple of Ballistic Missiles that they would have stayed at home with the fire on, a good schnapps and just pushed a few buttons, closest they got were the V1 and V2 rockets but alas for them the war was lost at that stage.

Some estimate that Stalin was responsible for 20 million Russian deaths. Made the Germans look like amateurs.
Reality always wins in the end.
 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3938 –
I guess you could argue that the dearth of death from nuclear weapons might be due to them being available only in 1945, the fact that most countries don't have access to them, and the restraint by those that have have them. So, maybe it isn't fair to compare nuclear weapon deaths given that guns have been available for a millennium and the enthusiasm countries and individuals have demonstrated towards using them on each other.

But I guess that means we need to compare apples with apples when we cite statistics.

You compared deaths attributed to AZ over 6 months in Australia to deaths in NSW from Covid over a month (and most infections were more recent than that). There's little point looking at deaths outside that period in NSW (and Australia) given the elimination strategy had been successful for months before that. The vaccination program was all about preparing for what happens when the elimination strategy ends or fails. However bad the Covid crisis might be in NSW now, it's nothing compared to what would happen if Covid runs rampant throughout not only NSW but Australia (but the Australia-wide death toll of 915 might be a better indicator). That's when deaths would mount, but AZ might reduce that death toll. That means the comparison you make isn't a great metric.

Maybe the best metric might be the number of deaths attributable to AZ vs. lives saved by it. But even that would fail to account for serious long-Covid illness. 

I wonder how many lives epidemiologists would say were and will be saved by the AZ vaccine, especially if Covid ends up circulating freely?

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3940 –
    On the 7 News tonight, 2 interesting stats were given:
    • 6 million AZ doses have been administered in Australia.
    • According to a WHO advisor, In UK the 18-24 year olds are the age category with most infections of Delta over the last month, followed by the 5-18 year olds.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3941 –

[/quote]
Quote from: Mav – on
I guess you could argue that the dearth of death from nuclear weapons might be due to them being available only in 1945, the fact that most countries don't have access to them, and the restraint by those that have have them. So, maybe it isn't fair to compare nuclear weapon deaths given that guns have been available for a millennium and the enthusiasm countries and individuals have demonstrated towards using them on each other.

But I guess that means we need to compare apples with apples when we cite statistics.

You compared deaths attributed to AZ over 6 months in Australia to deaths in NSW from Covid over a month (and most infections were more recent than that). There's little point looking at deaths outside that period in NSW (and Australia) given the elimination strategy had been successful for months before that. The vaccination program was all about preparing for what happens when the elimination strategy ends or fails. However bad the Covid crisis might be in NSW now, it's nothing compared to what would happen if Covid runs rampant throughout not only NSW but Australia (but the Australia-wide death toll of 915 might be a better indicator). That's when deaths would mount, but AZ might reduce that death toll. That means the comparison you make isn't a great metric.

Maybe the best metric might be the number of deaths attributable to AZ vs. lives saved by it. But even that would fail to account for serious long-Covid illness. 

I wonder how many lives epidemiologists would say were and will be saved by the AZ vaccine, especially if Covid ends up circulating freely?

I'm interested in deaths from the new variant Delta which is causing us the problems now vs deaths from the vaccines and in particular the age groups. I'm wondering why a Prime Minister with no medical qualifications would encourage people to get get jabbed with a vaccine that ATAGI his vaccine advisory group have said is only suitable for over 60's.
He wants to alter their advice to fit his political agenda, It’s a constant appeal, I can assure you,” Morrison said......his constant appeal has cost a 44 and a 48 year old their lives IMO. Morrison IMHO has been putting unfair pressure on ATAGI and avoiding his responsibility for the lack of Pfizer for the age groups ATAGI designated.
My issue isnt with AstraZ vs Pfizer etc its with a PM trying to play catchup politics by putting other Australians at greater risk..

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3942 –
I definitely agree Scotty from Marketing should have spread the risk by sourcing a number of different vaccines.  Snubbing Pfizer was disastrous.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3943 –
Quote from: capcom – on
Once America was involved, it was all over. 




They only got involved when the Japs got ahead of themselves and attacked Pearl Harbor, they were happy to keep supplying everyone with equipment, keep the war running and make a dollar out of everyone. Hitler made the wrong move attacking Russia, he could have attacked England instead , would have won that easy but attacked Russia and it was downhill from there.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3944 –
Yep EB .... two wars on two fronts.