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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5295 –
Quote from: Mav – on
Looks like MBB has an answer to his question about whether the protests after the construction shutdown were at least as much of a superspreader event as the infamous engagement party: COVID cases linked to violent CFMEU protests surge to seven, union says, 7news.com.au.

Define superspreader. The family I know who were infected was from a factory where an infected worker infected 19 people who brought it back to their houses.

Yeah but blame the protesters, Gladys, Trump whatever else suits your agenda.

2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!
 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5296 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Define superspreader. The family I know who were infected was from a factory where an infected worker infected 19 people who brought it back to their houses.
@madbluboy‍ we have to assume protestors won't have themselves tested like the general public, so seven is a lot!

That is probably seven seriously ill, not seven mildly ill or asymptomatic! ;)

So then you extrapolate in the other direction to usual, if serious illness remains at about 15% of cases that means there is about another 46 infected circulating!

At R0 = 8.5 they can become more than 3300 in just two cycles of infection!
46 x 8.5 x 8.5 = ~3323 the approximate formula is xR0n where n is the number of cycles and x is the starting case count.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5297 –
Yep. Compare it to the infamous engagement party. In all likelihood, the attendees weren’t anti-vaxxers or anti-lockdowners, they just would have thought there was bugger all chance of being infected given we were close to Covid-0 at the time and they trusted that the other attendees were responsible people who wouldn’t be infected. IIRC, many were wearing masks. I’m guessing when they learned one of their number had been Covid positive, they would have been lining up to be tested.

On the other side of the fence, when anti-vaxxers get sick enough to seek medical assistance they often dispute the diagnosis of Covid on the basis it doesn’t exist or they were fully protected by Ivermectin or Vitamin C. That mob won’t get tested until they or their associates are forced into hospital.

PS: Memory fail! I had another look at the video and couldn’t see any masks! Interesting that 2 infected people were among the gathering. Maybe they wouldn’t have been lining up for testing, but I’m guessing the tracers were able to identify them all through the video and the sheepish hosts.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5298 –
High-profile Mongols bikie member, Dylan Goddard aka "The Destroyer",  spent time in a Covid intensive care unit after attending the protest/riot.  I believe he said, "COVID is real" upon his discharge from hospital.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5299 –
Almost 1800 people got covid yesterday, over 99% of them had nothing to do with protests.

More chance of getting the disease from your local Coles or Woolies than walking around the city holding a sign.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5300 –
Quote from: LP – on
@madbluboy‍ we have to assume protestors won't have themselves tested like the general public, so seven is a lot!

That is probably seven seriously ill, not seven mildly ill or asymptomatic! ;)

So then you extrapolate in the other direction to usual, if serious illness remains at about 15% of cases that means there is about another 46 infected circulating!

At R0 = 8.5 they can become more than 3300 in just two cycles of infection!
46 x 8.5 x 8.5 = ~3323 the approximate formula is xR0n where n is the number of cycles and x is the starting case count.

You don't have to and shouldn't assume anything.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5301 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
You don't have to and shouldn't assume anything.
You're completely right, the protestors definitely won't be tested and only those who become seriously ill will be counted as they eventually enter hospital.

So for every single one that enters hospital, there are another three highly contagious that haven't! ;)
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5302 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Almost 1800 people got covid yesterday, over 99% of them had nothing to do with protests.

More chance of getting the disease from your local Coles or Woolies than walking around the city holding a sign.

Nah mate. Didn’t you know thousands going thru coles and woolies daily can’t possibly spread Covid cause they are doing what Dan asked. Covid knows it’s legal to touch the same shelves walk shoulder to shoulder as long as your food shopping then Covid is dormant

Yet any illegal gathering whether it’s 5 people watching the Gf or a union protest in the open air is a disaster and always a super-spreader that causes Covid to spread out of control and infect 1000s 🤔

Crazy to think the blind faith people have in this liar. The bloke finds an excuse in every situation. The cases were heading north in a hurry during the early 1 week short sharp lockdown and have not slowed up. He ignorantly scoffed at NSW position saying we don’t want to be like nsw so we lock down early to prevent it. Our lying leader has no clue folks by now you should have worked that out and to think he is still allowed in any position of power is as I’ve said before is farcical and criminal.

Yet there are still those no matter what he does or doesn’t do defend him and the second any group met illegally they have the scapegoat they needed to blame escalating cases on. Thing is every day during this lockdown we have countless areas where people can met legally and cause major outbreaks yet because it’s within the rules it’s not front and centre.

Unbelievable.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5303 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Almost 1800 people got covid yesterday, over 99% of them had nothing to do with protests.

More chance of getting the disease from your local Coles or Woolies than walking around the city holding a sign.
Where does that percentage come from? Is it your assumption?

By the way, that’s what a superspreader event is: people present become infected and then they spread it to their family and friends and then that widening group infects strangers in Coles or Woolies. If the protesters went for tests on the way home and isolated until they received a negative test, there wouldn’t be much of an issue. But what do you think the chances are that they did that: not 99%, I bet.

And how many of the protesters were quietly walking around the city holding signs? You’ve no doubt seen the footage showing almost entirely unmasked people packed in as tightly as in a mosh pit at a rock concert shouting in close proximity to others. I might be making a rash assumption here, but I’m assuming they weren’t vaccinated either. If only high definition slow-motion cameras had zoomed in on those events, maybe they could have documented a miasma of spittle floating above the protesters and might even have tracked some droplets on the way to their destinations, à la Contagion or Outbreak.

But the kicker is that it isn’t necessary to show that new infections emanated solely from the protests. What we need is to reduce the growth of Covid. If we hadn’t had these protests, the new case numbers would be lower. And that’s not an assumption.


Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5304 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Almost 1800 people got covid yesterday, over 99% of them had nothing to do with protests.

More chance of getting the disease from your local Coles or Woolies than walking around the city holding a sign.

I have to ask, where did your 99% figure come from?  I don't think it's based on any of the scientific modelling. 

There's more chance of getting COVID by getting together with folk in someone's home.  The chances of getting COVID by shopping in a supermarket while wearing a mask and social distancing are pretty low but checking in with the QR code means that you'll be tracked if you're exposed. 

The chances of getting COVID by taking part in protest/riot and not wearing a mask and/or social distancing may not be high but, because no-one knows who was there and the participants are unlikely to be tested, we won't know whether it was a super-spreader event until folk are in ICU or are found dead at home. 
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5305 –
Quote from: DJC – on
I have to ask, where did your 99% figure come from?  I don't think it's based on any of the scientific modelling. 

There's more chance of getting COVID by getting together with folk in someone's home.  The chances of getting COVID by shopping in a supermarket while wearing a mask and social distancing are pretty low but checking in with the QR code means that you'll be tracked if you're exposed. 

The chances of getting COVID by taking part in protest/riot and not wearing a mask and/or social distancing may not be high but, because no-one knows who was there and the participants are unlikely to be tested, we won't know whether it was a super-spreader event until folk are in ICU or are found dead at home. 

This is true provided all the points you raise occur yet in the real world they don’t. People on all levels relax and get comfortable when a lockdown goes on and on and on and on. It’s human nature like it or not.

Go to cafe for a coffee and social distancing never happens. Bunnings is pretty bad too.  I see a big percentage without masks or with them on their chin and see heaps walk in straight past the QR check in. Never seen one stopped as long as you show your Bunnings card you’re in.

And try social distancing when they have one cashier open. Doesn’t happen mate.

It’s simplistic to think that supermarkets, Bunnings building sites cause low levels of spread because of tracking masks and social distancing. 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5306 –
Another new treatment is on the way! AstraZeneca is seeking an Emergency Use Authorisation from the FDA regarding AZD7442. Apparently it reduces the risk of those jabbed with it developing Covid symptoms by 77%.

This jab isn’t a vaccine though. Vaccines act by prompting the body’s immune system to recognise and attack the Covid virus. But vaccines don’t have all that much benefit for immune-compromised people as the immune system often fails to respond as needed. This drug instead contains lab-made antibodies which stay in the body for months.

Apart from giving the immune-compromised some immunity they lack, perhaps it might also augment the immune response of those who have received a vaccine, but whether the benefits of this drug and vaccines are cumulative isn’t clear.

It is a cause for optimism that treatments and prophylactics such as this drug and other vaccines are being released at a steady clip and they are starting to fill in the gaps in vaccine coverage. Yet another reason to do everything we can to make sure we can delay infection as long as possible.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5307 –
Quote from: shawny – on
This is true provided all the points you raise occur yet in the real world they don’t. People on all levels relax and get comfortable when a lockdown goes on and on and on and on. It’s human nature like it or not.

Go to cafe for a coffee and social distancing never happens. Bunnings is pretty bad too.  I see a big percentage without masks or with them on their chin and see heaps walk in straight past the QR check in. Never seen one stopped as long as you show your Bunnings card you’re in.

And try social distancing when they have one cashier open. Doesn’t happen mate.

It’s simplistic to think that supermarkets, Bunnings building sites cause low levels of spread because of tracking masks and social distancing. 

You must live in a different world to me.  Of course I see the odd feckwit with their mask under their nose and the occasional older citizen can't quite do the QR code, but they are a tiny minority.  The vast majority are doing the right thing in my neck of the woods and, from what my friends and family tell me, that's the case across the nation.

It's not simplistic to follow the best modelling available.  It's simplistic to think that your observations trump the best scientific minds .... but that's why we're in a pickle; too many folk think that reading something online is research   :(
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5308 –
Quote from: DJC – on
It's simplistic to think that your observations trump the best scientific minds .... but that's why we're in a pickle; too many folk think that reading something online is research   :(

Not sure I said anywhere my observations were superior to the real experts but ok.

I made the point that the worlds longest lockdown is not done the job out great man said it will and was a fail. Similar to his first fail where we lost 800 lives while the rest of country lost under 200 combined over the same period!

And if you think it only failed because of the spreading from a few open air protests and GF parties in a city with over 6 million residents well i just don’t buy that. Not saying I’m right just my thoughts on it tell me there is more to the numbers rocketing then that.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #5309 –
Quote from: shawny – on
Not sure I said anywhere my observations were superior to the real experts but ok.

I made the point that the worlds longest lockdown is not done the job out great man said it will and was a fail. Similar to his first fail where we lost 800 lives while the rest of country lost under 200 combined over the same period!

And if you think it only failed because of the spreading from a few open air protests and GF parties in a city with over 6 million residents well i just don’t buy that. Not saying I’m right just my thoughts on it tell me there is more to the numbers rocketing then that.

Once again, here are the facts: a Federal Government enquiry into the private nursing homes funded and controlled by the Federal Government in Victoria found the following:

1. Poor infection control.
2. Severely depleted staff numbers.
3. Inadequate emergency planning.
4. Deficient leadership.

In total, 655 (82 percent) of the 801 residents who died  in nursing homes were in private aged care, the responsibility of the Federal Government and, in particular, the then Minister for the Aged, the totally incompetent Richard Colbeck, who is now conspicuous by his absence as he has been hidden from public scrutiny to avoid further questioning.

 

These facts have been known for months, yet you keep banging on about Dan bearing responsibility for 800 deaths and you continue to say nothing of the failings  of the federal Department for the Aged in the matter.

Then you seem to have a memory lapse when blaming Dan for the failure of the lockdown.  We were at zero cases per day when two furniture removalists from NSW brought the Delta strain across the border, caused in part by the failure of Gladys to control the virus in NSW.

 Had Gladys not lost control, and had the Federal Government not placed all its eggs in one basket last year when it concentrated on purchasing AZ only, and had shown responsibility in purchasing Pfizer as well, the country would now be in a much better position to face the coming months of strain on our hospitals and allied health services.