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Topic: The rise.... and RISE of Marc Pittonet (Read 96052 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #210 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
I'd be curious to see how an outfit like Champion Data rates Pittonet. If you head over to Footywire and compare him to other rucks (I compared him to Sean Darcy, Tim English, and Blicavs using career averages) his limitations are fairly obvious IMO.

I have no inherent issue with Pittonet, but I remain unconvinced that any tyre pumping is really justified. A one trick pony, and limited beyond that IMO.
https://www.afl.com.au/stats/compare?category=Key+Stats&seasonId=52&roundId=-1&roundNumber=0&sortColumn=dreamTeamPoints&sortDirection=descending&positions=All&teams=All&benchmarking=false&dataType=totals&playerOneId=CD_I298290&playerTwoId=null

Not sure if that works for you, but AFL page, stats, select pittonet and compare seasons or career in different stat areas.

He is 'elite' in hitouts to advantage
average or below average in just about everything else.

Elite = 1-10% of players of that position in that stat.
Above average = 11-35%
Average = is 36-66%
Below Average = 67-100%

The ruck data is hard to normalise for a few reasons.
1. Some teams play 2 rucks, others just 1.
2. It doesn't take into account when you get subbed out/injured
3. It doesn't take into account time on ground.
4. It can be skewed based on who you've come up against so far in the year.

Basically, Pittonet is 'handicapped' a bit because we've played 2 rucks half the time, and he's been subbed out with injury. His averages are going to be down against someone who has played every game as a sole ruck.

Thats why i like the ruck stats as it works out a % that you can compare against anyone based off ruck contests in and ruck contests that resulted in a hitout to advantage. You can be in 10 ruck contests or 1000, the results are legit.

Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #211 –
Without revisiting the flaws of the hitouts to advantage statistic, it’s worth noting that Pitto loses more ruck contests than he wins.

While those hitouts may not all result in opposition clearances, there’s a good chance that, with a decent midfield, many of them will.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #212 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Without revisiting the flaws of the hitouts to advantage statistic, it’s worth noting that Pitto loses more ruck contests than he wins.

While those hitouts may not all result in opposition clearances, there’s a good chance that, with a decent midfield, many of them will.

Agree.

Ruckman are not just there for hitouts to advantage they need to provide something valuable once the tap work has finished. Pit is ok as a block or big body in the contest but that’s where it ends. He takes little to no marks around the ground is a clumsy forward that gets in the way of our big marking forwards and then even if the ball luckily lands in his hands he can’t kick for goal with any accuracy. Also as the dump long kick out target again he is below par.

Agree he’s tap work is good but that’s when it ends sadly. His bloody clumsy in contests and I’m not sure how he ranks against others but seems to give away too many frees with dumb holds or pushes.

Needs to improve dramatically around the ground for me to rate him against the better ruckman in the comp.

Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #213 –
With cripps, bam bam, cerra, hewett and walsh at your feet anyone would have good tap stats.

The ability of our rucks to nullify an opposing ruck is somewhat statistically biased.  You can only compare them to each other as a consequence, so if the stats are a bit all over the shop odds are it's because we have the best clearance player in the comp. 
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #214 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
With cripps, bam bam, cerra, hewett and walsh at your feet anyone would have good tap stats.

The ability of our rucks to nullify an opposing ruck is somewhat statistically biased.  You can only compare them to each other as a consequence, so if the stats are a bit all over the shop odds are it's because we have the best clearance player in the comp.
Personally, given we have Cripps, Walsh, Cerra and Hewett, I'd love my ruck to take a toll on the opposition Mids more than win the ruck tap. Win the tap the pill is still in a contest, at best it's 50/50 at that point when everybody is fresh and up and about.

Slow the opposition Mids, make them hesitant or indecisive, and we win the clearance anyway, and we also have a chance of braking opposition momentum. Winning more and more taps is just making more and more 50/50s, I don't like it being fair and square, I want our blokes in the midfield to get a easy ride, free of scragging. All this comes from the ruck work that happens after the tap is won or lost, when we had SpecialK up and about at his best winning the tap was largely irrelevant.

Cripps and Walsh don't need the pill predictably feed down their throat so they get slam tackled, they just needs a split second of hesitance in the opposition's contest and they have won the pill and moved it on before the opposition even can think about what is happening.

As an aside, all this ban the bump rubbish is going to give scraggers a free ride, they'll be attached to blokes like Cripps like limpets, even worse than before. The shepherds, blocks, bumps are a key tool for rucks to control what taggers and scraggers can do to your best players. It's going to diminish the worth of Mumford, Darcy type rucks and boost the value of Blicsav or TDK type rucks, which is a reason why I prefer two rucks, one like Pitto and one like TDK.

Fans do not give enough respect to momentum, they think you can run a pissweak ruck for 5 minutes here and there and just surrender mometum to win it back instantly when the 1st ruck returns, but it's never that simple.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #215 –
Quote from: shawny – on
Agree.

Ruckman are not just there for hitouts to advantage they need to provide something valuable once the tap work has finished. Pit is ok as a block or big body in the contest but that’s where it ends. He takes little to no marks around the ground is a clumsy forward that gets in the way of our big marking forwards and then even if the ball luckily lands in his hands he can’t kick for goal with any accuracy. Also as the dump long kick out target again he is below par.

Agree he’s tap work is good but that’s when it ends sadly. His bloody clumsy in contests and I’m not sure how he ranks against others but seems to give away too many frees with dumb holds or pushes.

Needs to improve dramatically around the ground for me to rate him against the better ruckman in the comp.

That’s a different can of fish Shawny.  My point is that a good ruckman should win more hitouts than their opponent, regardless of whether they’re hitouts to advantage.

I’m not too fussed about Pitto giving away frees in the ruck; ruck frees are as random as chooklotto.

I’m actually quite impressed with Pitto’s work in the forward line.  He has been very good at giving Charlie or Harry an advantage by blocking the defender’s run.  It would nice if he could clunk a mark when resting forward, or around the ground, but he’s not Max Gawn.

I think that the plan is for Pitto to do the bulk of the ruckwork and the more mobile De Koning to have a presence around the ground.  Pitto gets a pass for his contribution but De Koning isn’t there yet.  The calls to play Tom as a key defender probably reflect his lack of success both as a tap ruckman and an around the ground marking target.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #216 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
With cripps, bam bam, cerra, hewett and walsh at your feet anyone would have good tap stats.

The ability of our rucks to nullify an opposing ruck is somewhat statistically biased.  You can only compare them to each other as a consequence, so if the stats are a bit all over the shop odds are it's because we have the best clearance player in the comp.

That's certainly part of the equation Thry.  Having a strong midfield means there is a greater chance of the ruckman's taps going to advantage, that is, hitouts that reach an intended teammate.  It should also mean that a fair number of opposition hitouts are sharked.  Hitouts to advantage don't necessarily end up as clearances, most probably result in another stoppage.  I guess clearances is a better measure of the cohesion between rucks and midfielders as it's often the ruckman's block or second effort that facilitates the clearance.

I'd like to see the figures for hitouts to advantage conceded ...
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #217 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Without revisiting the flaws of the hitouts to advantage statistic, it’s worth noting that Pitto loses more ruck contests than he wins.

While those hitouts may not all result in opposition clearances, there’s a good chance that, with a decent midfield, many of them will.

With all due respect, that means SFA.

No point 'winning' a hitout if it goes to a 50-50 contest, or worse still, to the opposition.
Anyone can win a hitout.
Not everyone can hit it to a teammate.

That is why the stats in this area are all BS......apart from the one i've been highlighting. Ruck contest -> hitout to advantage %.

For 100% complete transparacy, the ONLY bit of data we need is what % of ruck contests result in a hitout to advantage for the opposition (including your taps that go directly to the opposition). You get your RCHTA% minus what the opposition get and you'll get complete efficiency.
However, the old eye test can help you with that one.

A couple of games ok i was commenting during the in-game thread highlighting ruck contests and results.
I noted that Jack was breaking even, and getting clearances.
I was also noting that TDK might have got the odd sublime hitout, but there were plenty he didn't get near and the opposing ruck got an easy hitout to advantage as a result.
Pittonet might lose more than half of his ruck contests, (in reality the best rucks were 1 in 10 hitouts better) but his ability to find a target while negating his opposition ruck from doing so is much more important than getting his hands on the ball a couple more times for no actual benefit.

Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #218 –
The HtA stats are equally bogus.

You can assess the ruck taps very very easily, like counting cards, and ignoring what happen next;
Tap Win = +1
Tap Loss = -1
Nil = 0 (The most frequent event)

Do this and you find ruck tap work is highly over-rated.

If you want to include what happens next you stumble into a quandary, because often the Tap Loss becomes a Clearance Win and a Tap Win becomes a Clearance Loss. This is fundamentally why the HtA is bogus.

On the flipside, the Tap to Clearance Win conversion rate is often heavily dependant on the follow up actions of the ruck after a tap, whether the tap was a win or loss.

The real skill of ruck work isn't simply to win or lose a tap, it's controlling the zone the ball falls in regardless of whether you win or lose. That's why the dance around the ruck zone exists, whether they jump with left or right leg leading, which side of the opponent's body they contact. All these things affect where the ball can go, or sometimes more importantly, where the ball won't go.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #219 –
Let's debate a simple question, what is a tap to advantage?

 - Does the tap have to hit a team-mate on the full?
 - Is a tap into the path of a team-mate enough?
 - Is a tap into clear space to be collect by someone other than a Mid a tap to advantage?
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #220 –
Quote from: LP – on
Let's debate a simple question, what is a tap to advantage?

 - Does the tap have to hit a team-mate on the full?
 - Is a tap into the path of a team-mate enough?
 - Is a tap into clear space to be collect by someone other than a Mid a tap to advantage?

"A hit-out that reaches an intended teammate."

Doesn't have to be on the full.

Its the same as kicking. Kick it to your teammates advantage. Kick it to him directly, or into his path. A spot that is to you and your teams benefit, not to the opposition or a 50-50 contest.

Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #221 –
Quote from: LP – on
The HtA stats are equally bogus.

You can assess the ruck taps very very easily, like counting cards, and ignoring what happen next;
Tap Win = +1
Tap Loss = -1
Nil = 0 (The most frequent event)

Do this and you find ruck tap work is highly over-rated.
Yes, because its hitouts.....NOT hitouts to advantage.

There will be some data on it, that i'm not privvy too, that will convert hitouts to advantage into clearances. It won't be 100% because the target may drop/fumble the ball, but it would be significantly higher than a normal hitout........which is the point.

Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #222 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
"A hit-out that reaches an intended teammate."

Doesn't have to be on the full.

Its the same as kicking. Kick it to your teammates advantage. Kick it to him directly, or into his path. A spot that is to you and your teams benefit, not to the opposition or a 50-50 contest.
So in summary, the statisticians have no idea who the ruck was tapping it to, but a team-mate got it.

The odd shaped oval ball can bounce sideways, or zig zag like a slinky on cocaine, and it's advantage.

The sweeper can do as the name says and clean the pill from a stumbling team-mate, and it's a win.

All to the great credit of the rucks, I never realised the statisticians were mind readers!

I'm sorry Kruddler, I realise you've invested a lot of time and effort in and based on the Hitout to Advantage stuff, but it's largely a stat invented by someone who has no fecking idea of ruck play or stoppages. We can rename it "The Mystery Stat" or perhaps "The Houdini", because nobody has any idea what happened!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"
 

Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #223 –
How many times in a game does a ruckman tap the ball to one of his players and that player is immediately tackled.
Sometimes it results in putting your player under pressure and ends in a free kick the other way.
So the only real worth of a 'hit-out to advantage' stat would be if that stat also included some territory gained, or a clearance from that hitout.

It's the same with a hospital handpass...It's an 'effective disposal' but actually disdavantages the side.

The best judgement is to watch the game to see effectiveness....not the stat sheet.
Stats have a place but only as part of a much bigger picture.

Re: The Ruck Division .... Is It Really Competent Enough ??

Reply #224 –
Quote from: Lods – on
How many times in a game does a ruckman tap the ball to one of his players and that player is immediately tackled.
Sometimes it results in putting your player under pressure and ends in a free kick the other way.
So the only real worth of a 'hit-out to advantage' stat would be if that stat also included some territory gained, or a clearance from that hitout.

It's the same with a hospital handpass...It's an 'effective disposal' but actually disdavantages the side.

The best judgement is to watch the game to see effectiveness....not the stat sheet.
Stats have a place but only as part of a much bigger picture.

That's the flaw with the hitouts to advantage statistic Lods; it may result in a clearance, another stoppage or an opposition clearance.  How often does Cripps barge through opponents to gather an errant hitout (that then becomes a hitout to advantage) only to be tackled for another stoppage or a free either way.  It's Cripps that's enabling the hitout to advantage.

A better statistic would be 'ruck contest outcomes' with a points system similar to the pressure acts statistics; 5 points for a hitout that reaches a teammate or taking clean possession, 5 points for an effective kick or handpass after taking possession, 5 points if the hitout results in a clearance, 5 points if the ruckman blocks or shepherds to aid the clearance or tackles an opposition player, 2 points if territory is gained before another stoppage, -5 if the opposition ruckman wins the hitout or takes possession, -5 points if the opposition ruckman gets an effective kick or handpass after taking possession, -5 points if the opposition wins the clearance, and -2 points if the opposition gains territory.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!