Re: General Discussions
Reply #1653 –
I was doing general web searching relating to EVs and came across some interesting figures that really should be front of mind when moving from combustion to 100% EV. While I won't quote hard numbers I will convey the general concept because it at least poses some interesting questions.
The first is the carbon budget in the production of a car, it's often not discussed in the green debate and it seems for a very good reason. While the carbon emissions reduction are valid arguments for EV versus Combustion, it's only viable on the assumption that the carbon budget for the production of the two vehicle variants is equivalent. It turns out this equivalence assumption is grossly wrong and the devil is in the detail.
The issue it seems is the huge number of special or rare materials used in production of EVs just smashes the carbon budget out of the stadium. From "dirt to dump", the carbon deficit for an EV could be as high as 18x that of a combustion car, even conservative assessments put it at greater than 10x.
Now keep in mind, that debates on "emissions" seem to flip context between total emissions and user subject to the perspective of those debating, but in real world only total matters,
This really makes a folly of trading in your perfectly good combustion vehicle for a new EV and claiming you are doing your part for the environment. In the UK a recent study put the break even at 75,000 kilometres using idealised / green energy sources, which are far from normal, apparently using real world sources to charge your vehicle likely means it will never break even with the carbon budget associated with it's full carbon cycle. The report suggested to even get close to that 75,000km break even point for personal EVs the UK needs to start building net zero nuclear power plants at never before seen rates.
All the assumptions are based on people driving the combustion vehicle for at least 50,000km before the upgrade, if you hardly use your combustion vehicle and still upgrade you are probably an environmental vandal!
It gets worse when you realise that the lifecycle of the EV mechanicals far exceed the lifecycle of the EV battery, issues which are nearly always omitted from debates about the best technologies. Some huge percentage of the total carbon budget in the EV is encapsulated in the battery, some claim as much as 50% of total emissions, and the battery has a much shorter life than the bulk of the vehicle.
So to get to your 75,0000km while still having a vehicle with a reasonable range on a full charge, how many batteries will you go through, and does each battery add 37,500km to the break even in the carbon budget?
Now I concede the numbers might be exaggerated, but let's say the battery carbon budget is 25%. I tend to believe the 75,000km, so that's an extra 18,000km for every battery swap. How long do batteries last, well it seems it depends on what you accept as a range on a full charge, but I can't see people operating EVs like they operate their iPhone!
One argument I came across against this doom asserted, but "We are going to recycle batteries", the assertion being a recycled battery has a lower carbon deficit. However, it seems that while recycling saves wasting a limited resource is always more carbon / energy intensive than mining / consuming fresh resources. Hard to imagine, but when you start to think about reverse engineering the encapsulated materials it's pretty much becomes obvious. The issue of recycling it seems is at odds with the priorities of safety and reliability.