Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 12: Carlton vs West Coast

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Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #15 – May 30, 2021, 11:09:11 pm

WC are one of the best ball using sides in the comp, we are at the other end of the scale. Kennedy, Darling up fwd will keep JW and Jones very busy.
Nic Nat wont play two average games in a row, short ground and he'll feast.
We cannot play Levi again surely.
I give us no chance, I've lost interest TBH.

Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #16 – May 31, 2021, 07:45:38 am

No Kelly, Allen, Shuey, McGovern, Duggan, plus Yeo underdone. Playing away from Perth. I'd say this game is 50/50. SCG is the smallest AFL ground, which makes it harder for the Eagles to play their uncontested game. Not having a third tall for us to deal with means it's 2 on 2 in our D50. The Eagles seem to be in some kind of fallow period, and whilst you want to win because you are superior and not because of the other team's deficiencies, sometimes you take what you can.

Not super confident, but definitely more of a chance than the Swans game IMO.

Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #17 – May 31, 2021, 10:14:22 am

We can beat the Weagles. We have done reasonably well against them in the past. If we can control NicNat, that takes away their midfield control.
But, can we control NicNat?
Can we kick straight? Especially H?
Can we get the team balance right?
These are not impossible, but we need a bit better analysis than we have been showing.

Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #18 – May 31, 2021, 10:15:44 am

Quote from: crashlander – on May 31, 2021, 10:14:22 am

We can beat the Weagles. We have done reasonably well against them in the past. If we can control NicNat, that takes away their midfield control.
But, can we control NicNat?
Can we kick straight? Especially H?
Can we get the team balance right?
These are not impossible, but we need a bit better analysis than we have been showing.

Actually didnt TDK do really well against him in a recent game?

Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 12: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #19 – May 31, 2021, 10:24:15 am

Nic Nat is first ruck in the most overrated AFL side. TDK ahead of him every day of the week. More confident about this game than the Swans one, but then again, this is Carlton. Once again it will all come down to selection. Thankfully the Gibbons selection angst will not be an issue this week. Now if we can just lose Levi ......

Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 12: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #20 – May 31, 2021, 10:49:41 am

Not sure WCE will only field the 2 talls. If I was them I'd play Brander up forward to force Jones and Weitering to play on him and Kennedy thus leaving Darling a lesser matchup. Only counter we would have would be to play Levi back but I don't like that in his current hobbled state.

I think either Casboult or Pittonet has to get dropped but one has to stay to give TDK a chop-out in the ruck. I don't like the idea of anyone else in our squad doing that role. Jones is needed down back, everyone else is either too small even as a chop-out (eg Kennedy) or too valuable to risk (eg McKay). And what happens if TDK gets hurt or really chopped up? I understand that you can't run too many big guys in the one team, but I believe in the principle of having a second player who you can step into the ruck even if only to give a real contest if the first ruck goes down 2 minutes into Q1 and someone to give them a brief chop-out in that event. I call this the chief/relief/brief combination. Obviously the brief has to be able to earn their keep in a different primary role and the relief ideally same or at least be able to contribute in another role eg key position. A fit Casboult does that, Pittonet doesn't and TDK is a work in progress as a forward even more so than as a ruck. Jones is also able to ruck and showed quite a lot in the 2s at the time of his renaisance but he is too necessary in defence at least at the moment, especially against teams that have at least 2 genuine tall forwards if not 3. A returning McGovern or McDonald, an up to speed Kemp or maybe a mideseason draft pick-up might open up Jones, as might a fit Cas, but they might be as good up forward or filling in as ruck and leaving Jones in defence.

This week we can do one of two things - minimalist changes or major shake-up. To date this year I have been taking the minimalist changes approach (not as minimalist as the match committee prior to this week) but this week I would be open to more of a shakeup. But without details of the performances in the scratch match it is a bit hard to know who might warrant the call-up. I doubt Kemp is yet ready, and Fisher will probably need a run in the 2s (out for a similar time to Martin and I think we all saw Jack needed a run in the 2s) but Dow, Honey, Kennedy, Newnes, O'Brien, Parks and SPS might all come into consideration. Who to go out? Gibbons a given, Casboult, Cottrell, Murphy, Pittonet, Setterfield, Owies all a chance to be dropped. I'd be tempted to give Owies another week and further to my above ruck comments keep one off Casboult or Pittonet - if his knee is up to it I'd keep Casboult and drop Pittonet. Let TDK pit his athleticism against the benchkmark - Pitt would be slaughtered. So something like:

Saad Jones    Weitering
Newman JSOS    Williams
Docherty Cripps Walsh
Fogarty    Casboult Martin
Betts McKay    Owies
TDK Stocker    E Curnow
Best 5 from
(incoming) Dow, Honey, Kennedy, Newnes, O'Brien, Parks and SPS
(reprieved) Cottrell, Murphy, Pittonet, Setterfield
My stab (given I know nothing of the performances in the scratch match)
Dow, Honey, Parks, SPS / Kennedy as injury sub (can cover multiple roles).

Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 12: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #21 – May 31, 2021, 10:55:39 am

I read that Nic Nat only played 70% game time, and Cornes reckons he's not fit enough. If true, another thing that will help us.

Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 12: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #22 – May 31, 2021, 11:01:24 am

Quote from: PaulP – on May 31, 2021, 10:55:39 am

I read that Nic Nat only played 70% game time, and Cornes reckons he's not fit enough. If true, another thing that will help us.

It's a sad moment when the first thing you find yourself checking each week is who will be missing for the opposition.....

Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 12: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #23 – May 31, 2021, 11:06:56 am

Quote from: PaulP – on May 31, 2021, 10:55:39 am

I read that Nic Nat only played 70% game time, and Cornes reckons he's not fit enough. If true, another thing that will help us.

In his 70% game time he managed 20 touches, 40 hitouts (17 to advantage!), 7 clearances, 6 tackles, 6 intercept, 4 inside 50, and 17 pressure acts.

He's fit enough to break you!

Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 12: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #24 – May 31, 2021, 11:07:30 am

I'm sure we will be outstanding for 85% of the game again, probably alot better than the opposition as usual. That 10-15% decides the outcome given we collapse for patches like a house of cards. Get away with it against sides that aren't real good, like Hawthorn, Essendon etc, but not against good sides.

Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 12: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #25 – May 31, 2021, 11:08:01 am

Quote from: kruddler – on May 31, 2021, 11:06:56 am

In his 70% game time he managed 20 touches, 40 hitouts (17 to advantage!), 7 clearances, 6 tackles, 6 intercept, 4 inside 50, and 17 pressure acts.

He's fit enough to break you!

That'd do it.

Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 12: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #26 – May 31, 2021, 11:08:31 am

Quote from: tonyo – on May 31, 2021, 11:01:24 am

It's a sad moment when the first thing you find yourself checking each week is who will be missing for the opposition.....

It's not a thing I check for as such. I just noticed the story whilst reading the AFL section on SEN. It may or may not be sad, but we need to accept the reality of our situation. In 3 months time, people won't be remembering whether Nic Nat was Fic Fat. They will remember whether we won or lost.

Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 12: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #27 – May 31, 2021, 11:21:05 am

Quote from: tonyo – on May 31, 2021, 11:01:24 am

It's a sad moment when the first thing you find yourself checking each week is who will be missing for the opposition.....

So true.

I think we all know deep inside we can’t beat any but the bottom 4 sides so any advantages we can get with the rest of the teams give us a little extra confidence pre game.

Many on here wont admit it but the reality is we are still miles off the better teams and are still happy to hang their hat in honourable losses as they use their positive mindset with these losses to easily be able to convert them to wins with just a few tweaks in gameplan, one new coach or with getting player A back from injury.

Thing is we have been saying that since the rebuild started 6 years ago.

Had 4 games this year against top 8 teams and lost every single time.

Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 12: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #28 – May 31, 2021, 11:40:46 am

Quote from: PaulP – on May 31, 2021, 11:08:31 am

It's not a thing I check for as such. I just noticed the story whilst reading the AFL section on SEN. It may or may not be sad, but we need to accept the reality of our situation. In 3 months time, people won't be remembering whether Nic Nat was Fic Fat. They will remember whether we won or lost.

Not commenting on you, PaulP - I do the same thing. I was just opining that the fact I go to the injuries list for our next few opponents speaks volumes about the level of confidence I have that we can get the job done.

Re: Pre game perturbations: AFL 2021 Rd 12: Carlton vs West Coast

Reply #29 – May 31, 2021, 02:25:01 pm

Did we get the full squad away? Or are we limited in who we pick from?