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Topic: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong (Read 26030 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #105 –
Jeremy Cameron has touched up plenty of defenders with more experience, more fame and a bigger pay packet than Young.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #106 –
Quote from: Lods – on
I said before he seems a bit out of sorts, but that's only speculation on my part.
He may have a bit on his mind. His dad copped a hammering in the press last week. It's hard for a son to ignore that criticism especially when his 100th game was at the core of the issue.

So it boils down to this.
If we play two rucks, and we probably should (Pittonet ,especially needs game time), it's not TDK or Pitto that Jack's competing with...it's other players.
Was he injured on Thursday?
The match report suggests not.
If not,then it was decided that he offered the least in value at that point of the game, with that opposition.
With others pushing for selection that puts him in the danger zone.
If not Jack, then who goes out?
We may not make any changes.
There may be a specific role for Jack against GWS.
Selection this week will be interesting.

I agree about Jack. He's seemed a bit down. He wears his heart on his sleeve and appears a bit ..... hurt, for want of a better word.

Maybe he's burdened emotionally, or is carrying an injury. I think he's out of contract this year. He recently got engaged. Competition for spots is heating up, and his dad is back in the recruitment game! That's a fair bit going on. I hope Jack finds his place and his mojo.
Coming together is the beginning.
Keeping together is progress.
Working together is success.
Henry Ford.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #107 –
Quote from: Lods – on
That's probably where it gets a bit confusing.
If we only play one of our main ruckmen  Jack takes the position of second ruck.
But Jack's not a ruckman. That's not his position.
But he can play multiple roles.
In some respects his versatility counts against him.

We have taller bigger players at both ends who would probably provide a better ruck contest than Jack but we can't afford that luxury for specialist players.
So Jack's the sacrificial lamb when we play one ruck.

When Pittonet played I thought ,good...Jack can play more his natural role. But he didn't really shine.
 
Jack's one of my favourite players, because he always gives 100%
I'd have him in my team most weeks.

I said before he seems a bit out of sorts, but that's only speculation on my part.
He may have a bit on his mind. His dad copped a hammering in the press last week. It's hard for a son to ignore that criticism especially when his 100th game was at the core of the issue.

So it boils down to this.
If we play two rucks, and we probably should (Pittonet ,especially needs game time), it's not TDK or Pitto that Jack's competing with...it's other players.
Was he injured on Thursday?
The match report suggests not.
If not,then it was decided that he offered the least in value at that point of the game, with that opposition.
With others pushing for selection that puts him in the danger zone.
If not Jack, then who goes out?
We may not make any changes.
There may be a specific role for Jack against GWS.
Selection this week will be interesting.





I've gone on about the 2 rucks plenty of times, so i'll give my short version.

Play 2 rucks and Silvagni and we see the TOG% we saw on Thursday - 1 of them take up a spot on the bench for the entire game
Play 1 ruck + Silvagni and it allows us to play an extra small, more rotations for all.
Play 2 rucks and no silvagni and you lose a bit of firepower/pressure up forward....resting ruck forward is a good theory, but we don't get much out of those 2.

My preference....
Pitto and SOS. Pitto play 80% of the ruck. SOS gives him a chop out but plays mainly down forward. It simply gives us more run through the middle, while not sacrificing up forward.

As for who should come out.....i'd prefer a ruck.
I think Cowan could be up for a rest.
Also think we might want to potentially lose a small forward as we are carrying 3, plus fisher.

In short, nobody DESERVES to be dropped, so you pick a team that helps you win the game. Don't go too tall, too small, too injured etc.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #108 –
Jack is not a ruckman. If he rucks we lose.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #109 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
I've gone on about the 2 rucks plenty of times, so i'll give my short version.

Play 2 rucks and Silvagni and we see the TOG% we saw on Thursday - 1 of them take up a spot on the bench for the entire game
Play 1 ruck + Silvagni and it allows us to play an extra small, more rotations for all.
Play 2 rucks and no silvagni and you lose a bit of firepower/pressure up forward....resting ruck forward is a good theory, but we don't get much out of those 2.

My preference....
Pitto and SOS. Pitto play 80% of the ruck. SOS gives him a chop out but plays mainly down forward. It simply gives us more run through the middle, while not sacrificing up forward.

As for who should come out.....i'd prefer a ruck.
I think Cowan could be up for a rest.
Also think we might want to potentially lose a small forward as we are carrying 3, plus fisher.

In short, nobody DESERVES to be dropped, so you pick a team that helps you win the game. Don't go too tall, too small, too injured etc.

So essentially Kruds you don't see TDK as part of our future.
That's fair enough, no doubt some good compensation for us, but...
It will be a rather bizarre situation where clubs come with big money for a player who can't make the best 23.
 

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #111 –
SoJ is given extra credits by fans for having his surname, it's always going to be that way.

But AFL is a brutal business, and perhaps some fans would be shocked to learn his surname means nothing to the MC or list managers.

If SoJ is selected he has to be selected on merit, and he has to retain his spot on merit, we can't be inventing roles just to give him a game, that is not how AFL works. Really, as much as it may disappoint fans, it's the way he'd want it!

At the moment I don't see a problem, for me if it's SoJ or Martin then SoJ gets a tick, but I think the problem for fans is that the MC is not likely to a regular spot for either player in that 3rd marking forward role. As forwards they are probably filling the last spot, as Mids they are at the bottom end of a long queue, neither are AFL defenders of note, and they aren't overly quick.

TDK and Pitto are miles ahead as a ruck combo, I feel fans dismissing TDK are being somewhat disingenuous simply because they know what it means for someone named Silvagni.

Pitto alone is not the answer, he is a good stoppage ruckmen and zoning defender but he's too one dimensional, TDK alone is not the answer, he is great floating forward but he is still developing as a ruck. SoJ isn't a great ruck option relieving either.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #112 –
JSOS can be the third marking forward and retain his spot....Fritsch and Rohan are different players to JSOS but having that third established forward target helped Melbourne and Geelong win premierships. They dont have to kick big bags but just be part of the structure and know their role that makes the other more key players better, and I reckon Jack knows his role and is happy to sacrifice for the good of the team where ever he plays on the field.
For me he is an automatic selection given his attitude and ability to play multiple roles and I dont get why people want to give him the Khyber after one win vs a premiership hung over Geelong team and think we can now can get experimental and extravagant with selection.
The reality is if we lose to GWS this week then we are right back in the midpack crape again with just one win from three and Id be sticking with players who I can rely on to turn up and you know will play for the jumper...

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #113 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Jack is not a ruckman. If he rucks we lose.

X2
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #114 –
I sometimes wonder if other folk are watching the same games of footy 🙂

Jack plays most of his footy as a tall forward.  When Charlie or Harry have a spell, Jack takes a key forward role.  If all three are on the field together, Jack plays as the third tall.  His lead up marking is very good and I believe that he takes more marks on the lead than our other forwards.  He is also a good contested mark and he reads the play well and can find space away from his defender.  Jack had a period when his goal kicking wasn’t that reliable.  He’s addressed that and his ability to find a teammate inside 50 is very good.  He also works hard on his defensive game and can play in defence if required.

Jack’s not a ruckman and, at best, he’s looking to neutralise the opposition rucks.  When he does pinch hit in the ruck, our forward line is less potent and our midfielders less effective.  Pitto and Tom can both clunk a mark in the forward line but they don’t have Jack’s forward craft.

Our best ruck combination is Pitto and Tom (with Mirkov waiting in the wings).  It shouldn’t be too hard to work out a rotation that keeps pressure on the opposition rucks and defenders and makes life difficult for the opposition forwards.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #115 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Jack is not a ruckman. If he rucks we lose.

Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story.....

When we played 1 ruck + Jack
R4 - LOSS vs Gold Coast - Cripps got injured/subbed out
R5 - WIN vs Port
R7 - WIN vs North
R8 - WIN vs Crows
R9 - WIN vs GWS
R10 - WIN vs Syd
R11 - LOSS vs Coll - 4 point loss, Weiters subbed out in the 1st quarter
R13 - WIN vs Ess
R14 - LOSS vs Rich
R15 - WIN vs Freo
R16 - LOSS vs Saints
R17 - WIN vs WCE
R18 - LOSS vs Geel
R19 - WIN vs GWS
R21 - LOSS vs Bris
R22 - LOSS vs Mel - 5 point loss
R23 - LOSS vs Coll - 1 point loss

2 rucks and Jack
R1 - WIN vs Tigers
R2 - WIN vs Dogs
R3 - WIN vs Hawks
R20 - LOSS vs Crows

1 ruck only, no Jack
R6 - LOSS vs Freo

1 ruck + Jack = 53% win ratio (including 3 losses by under 1 goal)
2 rucks + jack = 75% win ratio
1 ruck, no jack = 0% win ratio

1 ruck + Jack in 2023 - 1 draw.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #116 –
Yeah but Jack gets beaten up in the ruck loses confidence and gets sent to VFL like late last season.

He is one hell of a competitor in there for sure. But I don't think that should be the issue. I think we need to keep a core 30-35 players and Jack is in there for sure but best 22 will come down to fitness, form and team balance imo.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #117 –
Quote from: Lods – on
So essentially Kruds you don't see TDK as part of our future.
That's fair enough, no doubt some good compensation for us, but...
It will be a rather bizarre situation where clubs come with big money for a player who can't make the best 23.

re TDK...
Not necessarily.

Up to this point in time.....
I don't think he can play #1 ruck for 80%-90% of the game like Pitto can.
I don't think he can be as effective up forward as Jack can.
So if we play TDK, we basically take up a spot on the bench for half a game as a result.

Now, he has the potential to dominate games.....but its unrealised potential at this stage.
Pittonet for all his athletic shortcomings by comparison to TDK makes up for it with pure aggression and elite ruckwork.
Its not always the ones he wins either. A few took note how he was able to resist the classic Hawkins push-off from boundary throw-ins that has netted Hawkins numerous shots on goal. I reckon he scored one against TDK last year with that very move!

So for team balance, i think 1 ruck for 80-90% of the game, with short bursts of Jack in the middle allows us to play another midfielder (instead of a 2nd ruck) and that extra midfielder will give us more benefit than that 2nd ruck.

Thats not saying anything against TDK, its simply how i think we can win more games.

We almost got ran over by the cats for that exact reason. Essentially our team changed (Durdin <-> Martin, and Pittonet <-> Hewitt)
We played the extra ruck, instead of a midfielder, and ran out of legs and almost lost. That is exactly what i've been trying to avoid!

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #118 –
Quote from: pinot – on
Yeah but Jack gets beaten up in the ruck loses confidence and gets sent to VFL like late last season.

He is one hell of a competitor in there for sure. But I don't think that should be the issue. I think we need to keep a core 30-35 players and Jack is in there for sure but best 22 will come down to fitness, form and team balance imo.
Jack missed 1 game, and it was R6.


TEAM BALANCE, is exactly why i favour him over a 2nd pure ruckman.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #119 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
2 rucks + jack = 75% win ratio

Well, there you go!
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball