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Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #120 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story.....

When we played 1 ruck + Jack
R4 - LOSS vs Gold Coast - Cripps got injured/subbed out
R5 - WIN vs Port
R7 - WIN vs North
R8 - WIN vs Crows
R9 - WIN vs GWS
R10 - WIN vs Syd
R11 - LOSS vs Coll - 4 point loss, Weiters subbed out in the 1st quarter
R13 - WIN vs Ess
R14 - LOSS vs Rich
R15 - WIN vs Freo
R16 - LOSS vs Saints
R17 - WIN vs WCE
R18 - LOSS vs Geel
R19 - WIN vs GWS
R21 - LOSS vs Bris
R22 - LOSS vs Mel - 5 point loss
R23 - LOSS vs Coll - 1 point loss

2 rucks and Jack
R1 - WIN vs Tigers
R2 - WIN vs Dogs
R3 - WIN vs Hawks
R20 - LOSS vs Crows

1 ruck only, no Jack
R6 - LOSS vs Freo

1 ruck + Jack = 53% win ratio (including 3 losses by under 1 goal)
2 rucks + jack = 75% win ratio
1 ruck, no jack = 0% win ratio

1 ruck + Jack in 2023 - 1 draw.

You just proved my point.

PS: The rd 6 game against Freo that Jack missed we played 2 rucks but Pittonet was injured in the first term which saw Darcy go rampant.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #121 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story.....

When we played 1 ruck + Jack
R4 - LOSS vs Gold Coast - Cripps got injured/subbed out
R5 - WIN vs Port
R7 - WIN vs North
R8 - WIN vs Crows
R9 - WIN vs GWS
R10 - WIN vs Syd
R11 - LOSS vs Coll - 4 point loss, Weiters subbed out in the 1st quarter
R13 - WIN vs Ess
R14 - LOSS vs Rich
R15 - WIN vs Freo
R16 - LOSS vs Saints
R17 - WIN vs WCE
R18 - LOSS vs Geel
R19 - WIN vs GWS
R21 - LOSS vs Bris
R22 - LOSS vs Mel - 5 point loss
R23 - LOSS vs Coll - 1 point loss

2 rucks and Jack
R1 - WIN vs Tigers
R2 - WIN vs Dogs
R3 - WIN vs Hawks
R20 - LOSS vs Crows

1 ruck only, no Jack
R6 - LOSS vs Freo

1 ruck + Jack = 53% win ratio (including 3 losses by under 1 goal)
2 rucks + jack = 75% win ratio
1 ruck, no jack = 0% win ratio

1 ruck + Jack in 2023 - 1 draw.
this is where stats adopt help an argument.

It worked early on as shock factor but there have been some really bad beats when jsos rucked and some of his early second ruck jobs came when Levi was still around and able to chop out.

The more we do it the less good it looks with him playing as a second ruckman.

"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #122 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
re TDK...
Not necessarily.

Up to this point in time.....
I don't think he can play #1 ruck for 80%-90% of the game like Pitto can.
I don't think he can be as effective up forward as Jack can.
So if we play TDK, we basically take up a spot on the bench for half a game as a result.

Now, he has the potential to dominate games.....but its unrealised potential at this stage.

I guess the question that comes from that is "If not now,  then when" do we go to the two ruckmen.
If Tom's to realise that potential it's not likely to do us much good if he's playing VFL.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #123 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
You just proved my point.

PS: The rd 6 game against Freo that Jack missed we played 2 rucks but Pittonet was injured in the first term which saw Darcy go rampant.
No it didn't prove your point. You said Jack = loss.....clearly that is incorrect.

If you wanted to say 2 rucks plus Jack gives us a better chance of winning, then you should've said that.

On that point, I'd point out that the quality of the opposition we faced with Jack as 2nd ruck is far superior than those other games....which throws serious shade on your new assertion.


Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #124 –
Quote from: Lods – on
I guess the question that comes from that is "If not now,  then when" do we go to the two ruckmen.
If Tom's to realise that potential it's not likely to do us much good if he's playing VFL.


That's up to Tom as much as anyone....or if we get injuries.

Through this whole saga, I have NOT been against TDK at all. I've simply been for the best interests of the club and what gives us best chance of winning games. If TDK ends up being a footnote in that, so be it.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #125 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
this is where stats adopt help an argument.

It worked early on as shock factor but there have been some really bad beats when jsos rucked and some of his early second ruck jobs came when Levi was still around and able to chop out.

The more we do it the less good it looks with him playing as a second ruckman.


All those stat's are post casboult.

Really bad beats?
3 of the losses was by less than a goal. Another one was because we lost cripps early.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #127 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
1 point away from 50%

Blind Freddy could see that we’re more competitive with two genuine rucks and Jack playing as a tall forward.

Jack did a good job pinch hitting in the ruck but it gave us nothing in terms of clearances, marks around the ground and forward line effectiveness.

The better teams go with two ruckmen or one ruckman and a key forward who is big enough to be a genuine ruck.

Playing Jack as a ruckman isn’t going to get us to play finals.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #128 –
I get that this is sad for some fans, I'm sure it's sad for the Silvagni's as well, it's sad for me because I feel SoJ is heart and soul.

But all the best intentions aren't going to make up for the brutality of AFL football.

This isn't a little scribble on the corner of a cafe table, it's a massive neon freeway sign and many have seen it coming from some distance away!

Fans need to be very prepared for the media barrage that is going to come when this situation finally naturally evolves.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #129 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Jack missed 1 game, and it was R6.


TEAM BALANCE, is exactly why i favour him over a 2nd pure ruckman.

I actually thought we looked better Thursday with two rucks - one tall rucking forward taking arguable tallest player and one ruck behind the ball covering the exit kick. Not to mention we did better alot better around the clearances.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #130 –
Quote from: pinot – on
I actually thought we looked better Thursday with two rucks - one tall rucking forward taking arguable tallest player and one ruck behind the ball covering the exit kick. Not to mention we did better a lot better around the clearances.
I feel it was painfully obvious, TDK and Pitto have very different strengths and weaknesses, they seem to be able to combined well without getting in each others way!

I thought Pitto floating into D50 allowed Young, Gov and Weiters some freedom, the structure looked better.

TDK floating into F50 helped us become less predictable, it is a situation that will only get better if the three talls can work together.

When we have TDK and Pitto rotating in the ruck, the opposition don't seem to gain as much momentum, and / or we actually seem capable to flipping the momentum. Life was much harder for the opposition, people fans/media credited Cripps in the 3rd Qtr, but wasn't there also a component of TDK and Pitto, would Cripps have had that impact if our 1st ruck was rested by SoJ?

I think part of this is playing fit players, I would never take a unfit Pitto or TDK ahead of a fit SoJ, we have seen in the past the folly of taking questionably fit players into games.

I've thought in the past SoJ had the most impact being the marking option on the wing, but I can't say he's offered anything better than Acres did Thursday night. Acres needs to string a few games together, but I have to presume if that's his level he's a lock for that role.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #131 –
PS: We are having this debate on the evening after the demise of Gawn as a component of the Dees ruck duo, something that brought them undone, well worth consideration!

A week ago the Dees ruck duo had teams panicking!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #133 –
Rd 23 last year we lost to the Pies by a point.

Pittonet:  60 ruck contests for 17 hit outs
Silvagni: 33 ruck contests for 5 hit outs

Cameron: 48 ruck contests for 19 hit outs
M. Cox:  53 ruck contests for 24 hit outs

Pittonet can't do it on his own and that was taking 60% of the contests. 80% is not realistic or sustainable.



2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #134 –
One thing with Pittonet, qhe  he plays, his hit outs to advantage faf out weigh any other players. Think he has been at 41% the last couple of years. Pretty high.