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Topic: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong (Read 17679 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #135 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Playing Jack as a ruckman isn’t going to get us to play finals.

It got us 1 point away from playing them last year.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #136 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Rd 23 last year we lost to the Pies by a point.

Pittonet:  60 ruck contests for 17 hit outs
Silvagni: 33 ruck contests for 5 hit outs

Cameron: 48 ruck contests for 19 hit outs
M. Cox:  53 ruck contests for 24 hit outs

Pittonet can't do it on his own and that was taking 60% of the contests. 80% is not realistic or sustainable.





Should have clarified better, 80%-90% of centre bounces.

Ruck contests deep forward will always be Jack (or Harry) and it skews the numbers a bit.

Pitto takes middle and back
Jack takes forward.
Essentially 2/3's - 1/3...which is exactly what your numbers show.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #137 –
Pitto has problems exposed to all, TDK in tandem is the cure.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #138 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
It got us 1 point away from playing them last year.
or it made us fall 1pt short
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #139 –
Quote from: laj – on
One thing with Pittonet, qhe  he plays, his hit outs to advantage faf out weigh any other players. Think he has been at 41% the last couple of years. Pretty high.
If he has to ruck solo it'll be 41% of an ever dwindling number, against the Pies it was 6 out of 70 , it's a fools errand.

How many of the taps opponents win against SoJ are to advantage, do we want to know, not the percentage but the count?
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #140 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Rank these in order....
  PLAYER
 A - B - C
11 - 13 - 10 - Disposals
2 - 4 - 3 - Marks
217 - 204 - 97 - metres gained
1 - 2 - 0 - Goal assists
72 - 66 - 53 - TOG%
2 - 3 - 1 - I50's
4 - 6 - 2 - Score involvements
72 - 69 - 50 - DE%
6 - 1 - 2 - Tackles
3 - 0 - 1 - Clearances



FWIW.....








TDK - SOS - PItto
22 - 0 - 14 - Hitouts

Not sure how TDK/PITTO are getting so much love and Jack is the immediate out.

And he missed 2 sitters as well!
 

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #141 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
All those stat's are post casboult.

Really bad beats?
3 of the losses was by less than a goal. Another one was because we lost cripps early.


Kruddler, there have been games where Jack has rucked minimally because of how bad he was being beaten and opposition were wise to it, and just thumped the ball clear of the contest to the outside of the pack where our wingers got smashed.

Im a fan of playing all 3 in the team, and using one as a sub as fine, but jsos as second ruck is going to work less frequently the more he does it.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #142 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Kruddler, there have been games where Jack has rucked minimally because of how bad he was being beaten and opposition were wise to it, and just thumped the ball clear of the contest to the outside of the pack where our wingers got smashed.

Im a fan of playing all 3 in the team, and using one as a sub as fine, but jsos as second ruck is going to work less frequently the more he does it.

Absolutely!

Richmond got away with Grigg in the ruck until opposition coaches worked out how to exploit his lack of size.

The worst aspect of using Jack as a pinch hitting ruckman is that it impacts his work as a forward and makes it harder for our other forwards.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #143 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Absolutely!

Richmond got away with Grigg in the ruck until opposition coaches worked out how to exploit his lack of size.

The worst aspect of using Jack as a pinch hitting ruckman is that it impacts his work as a forward and makes it harder for our other forwards.
Got worked out real well.....after they won a flag with the tactic.

I'll take that.

People fixate on the difference in output between Jack and a genuine 2nd ruck, but they are completely ignoring the fact that we get an extra midfielder as part of that balancing act.
That (lack of) an extra midfielder against the cats almost cost us the game.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #144 –
How did that work last year against Geelong? Blicavs destroyed us.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #145 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Got worked out real well.....after they won a flag with the tactic.

I'll take that.

People fixate on the difference in output between Jack and a genuine 2nd ruck, but they are completely ignoring the fact that we get an extra midfielder as part of that balancing act.
That (lack of) an extra midfielder against the cats almost cost us the game.

It only took a couple of games for opposition coaches to work out how to exploit Jack in the ruck.  For example, in Round 14 last year, Hardwick had Balta play on Jack both when he was a forward and in the ruck.  Balta was simply too strong for Jack and the latter had no influence at all ... and we lost.  Against Collingwood the following week, Cox and cameron were simply too tall and exploited Jack in the ruck and around the ground ... and we lost again.

Jack isn't an extra midfielder when he goes into the ruck.  He has to try to negate the opposition rucks and they work on dragging him to both ends of the ground to create a marking advantage in attack or defence, as well as providing a taller marking option during their transition or to disrupt our transition.

As for the Geelong game, Blicavs - when he wasn't rucking - started in the square on Cripps, then drifted forward to create another marking target and/or drag Cripps out of the midfield.  Cripps didn't go with him, giving us an extra number around the ball.

What almost cost us the game was our inability to transition out of defence.  That wasn't helped by Pitto's lack of match fitness/ managed minutes, but he did give us the ability to compete in the air.  Silvagni does that when he plays as a forward and doesn't have to compete against taller, stronger opponents.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #146 –
All this discussion about rucks, type of ruck combo we should use etc, did show the value of Levi in his time here as a "professional 2nd ruck" and forward. JSOS can't do his ruck job and we're certainly not going to risk a big forward there. Pittonet and De Koning are a nice combo though. More than capable of doing more than just simply rucking.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #147 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
How did that work last year against Geelong? Blicavs destroyed us.
Blicavs destroyed cripps......which destroyed us.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #148 –
By what measure do you actually think Silvagni is performing well in the ruck?
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 2 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #149 –
Didn't Blicavs 2nd Ruck against us last year, I also recall Hawkins doing a ruck number on us inside F50 as well?

Actually, that game was a great example supporting my argument that taps are pretty much over-rated and 2nd efforts dominate.

Taps to Advantage is a bogus stat because it's hybrid, the stat depends 50/50 on the actions of the Ruck and the actions of the Mids.

The 2nd Efforts like Tackles and 1%ers are pure stats from which all the Ruckmen can be evaluated.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"