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Topic: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood (Read 21655 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #75 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Too many players racking up useless stats , kicking too short and taking us nowhere apart from allowing opposition teams time to get back in numbers and clog our forward line.
Yet, ironically I'd say one of our biggest problems are the long bombs into F50.

It's pretty easy to imagine you found the issue when you look at the stats, but it is a stark contrast to what many of us think are the real problems.

Let's face it, when that last kick goes directly to an opposition player, how many attempts we have, how quickly they happen and how long the kicks might be doesn't really make much difference. We miss targets from 20m and from 60m pretty much equally.

If I had a guess, I'd say when entering F50 we tend to try and kick to a player, rather than kicking to the clear space we want the player to move into. I recall back in the day Fev would go ballistic when player up the field sat the footy on his head, or worse over his head, he wanted it out in front and if there was to be an error then make it too short not too long, and definitely not too slow and high.

But we've been doing this crap for almost two decades, and just last weekend multiple times we sat the pill on Motlop's or Durdin's head, not that it helps if Motlop isn't moving because you basically have to pick him out.

With a player like Charlie, the slow movement might actually help him, because aerobically he has almost all opponents easily covered and gets them on the final lead every time!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #76 –
Quote from: LP – on
Yet, ironically I'd say one of our biggest problems are the long bombs into F50.

It's pretty easy to imagine you found the issue when you look at the stats, but it is a stark contrast to what many of us think are the real problems.

Let's face it, when that last kick goes directly to an opposition player, how many attempts we have, how quickly they happen and how long the kicks might be doesn't really make much difference. We miss targets from 20m and from 60m pretty much equally.

If I had a guess, I'd say when entering F50 we tend to try and kick to a player, rather than kicking to the clear space we want the player to move into. I recall back in the day Fev would go ballistic when player up the field sat the footy on his head, or worse over his head, he wanted it out in front and if there was to be an error then make it too short not too long, and definitely not too slow and high.
Look at the midfielder disposal stats(fox footy) vs Impact....only Cerra at No 52 is in the top 100....Walsh and Cripps are in the 300's.
Kennedy and Hewett are outside the top hundred and 200 respectively.....very hard to win games when your prime movers cant use the ball well and connect with your forwards.
Trent Cotchin went through a period where he racked up useless ineffective stats between half back and half forward and we have 3-4 Cotchins doing the same stuff for us.....3rd for possession yet 14th for I50's....time for Voss to make some changes and get more effective players in the middle bringing the ball forward.
Maybe Saad has to play further up the ground for example and we play through him more.......

Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #77 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
Against BrisVegas I think you predicted 16... not far off the mark. So... gulp!

I've lowered my expectations. Just hoping for a four qtr good showing... with more instinctual, bold movement of the aggott, and dare I say... everyone with a better than 65% disposal! 1975... Supertramp!!!
First game back at the G since round 2, we are, and I expect to see, a different Carlton which will beat the Pies.
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #78 –
Quote from: LP – on
But we've been doing this crap for almost two decades, and just last weekend multiple times we sat the pill on Motlop's or Durdin's head, not that it helps if Motlop isn't moving because you basically have to pick him out.

I have noticed way too many times players putting the ball  on the head of one of the smaller players - giving them little or no chance - at the end of the day this is simply a wasted inside 50. I have often wondered when a player going forward looks up and sees only a Motlop or a Durdin if they would not create a better contest by skidding it along the ground and give the much smaller player a chance to contest at ground level rather than in the air.

Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #79 –
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
First game back at the G since round 2, we are, and I expect to see, a different Carlton which will beat the Pies.
I think we can win too....not based on much logic apart from the fact the Pies have been up a while and are a tad cocky and we should have a backs to the wall approach which should harden our resolve.
They will come in expecting to run over the top of us but I expect to build up a lead and hold this time.
Charlie and Harry are our two aces and I expect a 8-10 goal haul....
If we had won againt the Dogs I would have expected us to get hammered but its all about timing and momentum and this week I expect us to be up and about with Cripps and Walsh leading the way.
Blues by 15 points......Swans will probably beat us the following week but if we can beat Collingwood and Essendon then I will be more than happy as I despise both clubs.

Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #80 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Look at the midfielder disposal stats(fox footy) vs Impact....only Cerra at No 52 is in the top 100....Walsh and Cripps are in the 300's.
Kennedy and Hewett are outside the top hundred and 200 respectively.....
Not sure what stats you are looking at Supercoach?

If I look at player / game stats, averages not totals, Walsh is top 10 midfield for both Fox Footy and AFL, Doc is Top 20 with Cerra in 3rd. But the order depends how you filter the stats. If you post a link I'll probably get a better idea of what you mean.

On DE, Cerra, Doc and Acres are all highly rated, with Saad and Kennedy also just outside Top 100.

If you asked me about Carlton 2023, in terms of game impact, Newman, Weiters, Saad and Doc would have to be right up there in the rankings. But it's such a subjective way to rank players, because the terms aren't literal.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #81 –
Quote from: LP – on
Not sure what stats you are looking at Supercoach?

If I look at player / game stats, averages not totals, Walsh is top 10 midfield for both Fox Footy and AFL, Doc is Top 20 with Cerra in 3rd. But the order depends how you filter the stats. If you post a link I'll probably get a better idea of what you mean.

On DE, Cerra, Doc and Acres are all highly rated, with Saad and Kennedy also just outside Top 100.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/blues-seduced-by-false-dawn-as-sorry-stats-reveal-just-how-far-superstars-have-fallen/news-story/850d75fe92a379e1350a4cf8ecd9d7d6
 

Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #82 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/blues-seduced-by-false-dawn-as-sorry-stats-reveal-just-how-far-superstars-have-fallen/news-story/850d75fe92a379e1350a4cf8ecd9d7d6
Yes, I see, the "Impact" thing is a bit of a made up figure, you can tweak the terms to give the type of measures you want.

I suspect it's being taken out of Supercoach or something like that, stats that might involve some arbitrary measure.

When the media write stuff like "Statistics Show" and do not link to the stats, be very very wary, it could be the figures are made up, or are based on rubbery sets of statistics! It could be Nana Mouskouri's Excel Spreadsheet

I know when felling disgruntled it can be comforting to find someone who bashes the club, emotionally we want to find a reason and tend to just agree with findings that support our feelings, but pause for a minute or two and remain sceptical.

Last weekend we basically outplayed the Dogs for 3-qtrs, but we were missing one piece of the puzzle, scoring. We were like the Titanic, nothing really fundamentally technically wrong, just a very very poor set of circumstances exacerbated by some bad decisions.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #83 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
I think we can win too....not based on much logic apart from the fact the Pies have been up a while and are a tad cocky and we should have a backs to the wall approach which should harden our resolve.
They will come in expecting to run over the top of us but I expect to build up a lead and hold this time.
Charlie and Harry are our two aces and I expect a 8-10 goal haul....
If we had won againt the Dogs I would have expected us to get hammered but its all about timing and momentum and this week I expect us to be up and about with Cripps and Walsh leading the way.
Blues by 15 points......Swans will probably beat us the following week but if we can beat Collingwood and Essendon then I will be more than happy as I despise both clubs.
EB I watched the WBs game again and this is going to sound stupid but FMD I reckon we were unlucky. I never mention the word luck but by Jesus some of our kicks just missed the target on so many occasions. I think we played well, took the game on, but field kicks and couple of shots and goal (Harrys and Charlies drop punts) only just missed. Also unlucky with a few frees, Charlie kick to the head should have been reported let alone a free, Gov got tunneled and got up gingerly, a 50m penalty wasn't paid when a WBs players ran right passed our bloke with the footy (not following his man). Owies ended up scoring his second in the next passage but the 50m should have been paid. My point is, tidy up some of that, keep taking the game on and we'll do ok. Sure we fell asleep in the last few minutes but still...
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #84 –
The fact that our midfield is of a type has been discussed many times. Also, I don't think Walsh is "inflexible." You can take a positive and a negative out of that form line.  On the positive side, we need 18/22 contributors to really go deep in finals. We hit the lead in the Dogs game with a few minutes to go, and that was on the back of the lesser lights, as many of our stars were / are out of sorts. We cannot expect Weitering, Charlie, Mckay, Cripps, Walsh to play blinders every week for us to win. It's a small sample space, but that good finish on the back of B and C graders is a positive step IMO.

Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #85 –
Quote from: LP – on
Yes, I see, the "Impact" thing is a bit of a made up figure, you can tweak the terms to give the type of measures you want.

I suspect it's being taken out of Supercoach or something like that, stats that might involve some arbitrary measure.

When the media write stuff like "Statistics Show" and do not link to the stats, be very very wary, it could be the figures are made up, or are based on rubbery sets of statistics! It could be Nana Mouskouri's Excel Spreadsheet

I know when felling disgruntled it can be comforting to find someone who bashes the club, emotionally we want to find a reason and tend to just agree with findings that support our feelings, but pause for a minute or two and remain sceptical.

Last weekend we basically outplayed the Dogs for 3-qtrs, but we were missing one piece of the puzzle, scoring. We were like the Titanic, nothing really fundamentally technically wrong, just a very very poor set of circumstances exacerbated by some bad decisions.
How did we outplay them?...look at the stats.....they won more stoppages, won the tackle count and were less efficient than us I50? yet beat us on the scoreboard easily.
Everyone knows our mids are a poor kicking group...even new players like Acres are not that reliable and we even have our better kicking players like Weitering kicking poorly.
I like Sheiks idea of Saad up the ground and Id be playing someone like Boyd in his place down back who is meant to be a good kick and trying to kick longer and more efficiently and run the ball more.
Id be looking at Binns and Dow as well for that extra run and getting the ball out of the hands of Cripps, Hewett, Walsh and Kennedy more and getting rid of the Cotchin like disposals that take us nowhere.

Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #86 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
How did we outplay them?...look at the stats.....they won more stoppages, won the tackle count and were less efficient than us I50? yet beat us on the scoreboard easily.
Yet for the vast bulk of the game we were double the Dogs for I50s and the like, which 9 out of 10 times would basically be the ultimate measure.

The Dogs didn't score with any great efficiency, in fact they barely scrapped in on the AFL average, but we were way way below the AFL average early, and below our own average, that was the difference. The media can sit around pumping up the Dogs tyres but I doubt they will, they had a skin of the teeth escape, they were also dead ordinary. They looked like two middle order teams.

Also, a lot of fans are bashing on about cheap stats, uncontested possessions and the like, but the Dogs actually had more UCs than Carlton, and Carlton won more Contested Possessions. I50s broke even by the end of the game, with I50 efficiency just a bees different in the end.

We actually managed to keep the Dogs down on most of their 2023 averages, that's a stat of significance, but nobody is going to mention it because we lost.

But at the start of the game there is no denying, we clearly were dead ordinary, with I50 after I50 being a null result, ultimately that cost us, a lot of good effort with no result.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #87 –
The dogs were poor, we were worse.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #88 –
Certainly not a great 4 quarter performance by either team, but the Dogs have won 6 out of their last 7, so they're not easy beats, and they are in the midst of a purple patch.

Re: AFL Rd 10 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #89 –
Let's be brutally honest with ourselves here ...... if we offer up the same woeful first half to the Pies like we did against the Dogs, it will well & truly be over at half-time.

They will make us pay for any lack of pressure, onfield indiscretions, skill errors & inaccurate kicking for goal.

Once they get a good lead, they pressure the opposition hard and never give them any opportunity of clawing their way back into the game.

The only way to beat them is attack, attack and then keep attacking. No lead is insurmountable in their eyes, when an opposition team tries to run the clock down or play safe, they smell the blood in the water and come at them even harder.

We have defenders coming out of our ying-yang so its time to rethink our options. Saad & Walsh to the wings all match gives us some serious running & clearance power that may be the edge we need to topple them. Whilst I never thought I'd say it but McGovern to the forwardline makes us less predictable too.

"The Other Teams Can Rot In Hell"