Carlton Supporters Club

Forget about hitouts, that includes ones that go to 50-50 contests and even to the opposition.

HTA was Pittonet 10, TDK 3.
FWIW Marshall also had 10.....even though he attented 19 more ruck contests and had 7 more hitouts than Pittonet, end result was same. 10 each to advantage.

Forget about hitouts, that includes ones that go to 50-50 contests and even to the opposition.

HTA was Pittonet 10, TDK 3.
FWIW Marshall also had 10.....even though he attented 19 more ruck contests and had 7 more hitouts than Pittonet, end result was same. 10 each to advantage.

Is that HTA a statistic that's even worth worrying about.

In  Pittonet's case it's a little over 2 a quarter
In TDK's case a little under one a quarter.

After the first possession there's no guarantee where the ball ends up, so essentially, a play that has such limited impact on a game is pretty irrelevant.

Can you provide the complete stats of last weeks game of Marshall, Pitt and TDK?

While pits ruck craft is very good the game doesn’t end after the hit out.

While TDK doesn’t have Pitts ruck craft yet but is superior imo in all other aspects after the bounce which imo makes him more valuable to the team.

I’m ok with both in the line up as I can see his value in wearing ruckman down to enable TDK to have a period where he can influence the game which is great I just get very frustrated with Pitts lack of footy smarts when being too loose when dangerous rucks float forward and he is jogging 5 metres behind and can’t get to the contest.

I've summarised parts of it already. Its there for all to see on the AFL stats.

The TDK boosters always point to Pittonets shortcomings after the ruck contest, which is fair, but at the same time fail to acknowledge that TDKs numbers after the contest are nothing to write home about either.
About a month ago, TDK averaged 1 more disposal a game, and played 8% more game time. They were essentially averaging the same around the ground.

TDK gets more ball forward so his stats are a bit more skewed to marks on lead, inside 50's etc, but they are far from spectacular.

....which is why i continually bring up the fact that we can't carry 2 rucks who don't do enough around the ground.

Pittonet gets our mids first use 10% of the time more than TDK.

Is that HTA a statistic that's even worth worrying about.

In  Pittonet's case it's a little over 2 a quarter
In TDK's case a little under one a quarter.

After the first possession there's no guarantee where the ball ends up, so essentially, a play that has such limited impact on a game is pretty irrelevant.

Its worth worrying about more than hitouts is it not?

The way i think about it is like this. Its an oversimplification, but it holds true over time (even if individual contests don't always hold true)

There is a 50-50 contest Pittonet wins you that contest 20% of the time.
TDK about 9% of the time.
Marshall was halway inbetween at 14%.
57% of contests has no winner.

So from all the non-HTA contests (57%) you have a 50-50 battle from your mids that they must win. Lets say they win 50% of them only. So 28% is won by your midfield.

Overall, your rucks won you 29% of the contests and your mids won you 28% of the contests.

Again, its an oversimplification, but you can see how important getting that head-start is from the ruck.

Overall we have won half from ruck, half from mids.

..and conceding goals to his opponent and lack of scoreboard pressure the other way?

10% more than X when X was playing in another position doesn't make much sense.

I should ignore this, but i'll try and educate you.

The 10% has literally nothing to do with the position they play or how many ruck contests they get too. Which is why i love this stat so much.

Think about it like shots on goal. If you kick a goal 60% of the time and someone else kicks it 50% of the time. You are 10% better shot on goal than the other bloke. That doesn't say how many shots on goal either are getting, but you know the first player is a better shot on goal than the second player. Clearly, you want to get the first player more shots on goal to capitalise on this advantage.

This is what that ruck statistic is showing. Pittonet will get the ball to an opponent from a ruck contest 10% of the time MORE than TDK will. This is true for the last game and this holds true over the course of the year and career. I've posted this on no less than a dozen occasions previously.

It clouds the picture a bit using percentages on such low numbers....makes it sound like a lot when actually it's not so many.

What I see you saying there though is that there are two aspects, one the ruck, the other the midfield.... but winning the hitout to advantage wouldn't always result in a clearance.

When you spoke to Champion data they gave you an explanation of the hitout to advantage.
I seem to remember that the response was that it goes to a team-mate who has 'time' to dispose of it.

Time is the key word there that needs clarification...because though you may have time it doesn't necessarily mean you win the contest.

On the weekend one of our ruckman won a clear hit out to one of our players who juggled it and then fumbled it....he had 'time' but lacked the execution.
Another instance would be if the player is tackled and caught with the ball, free kick against....again he has time, but not the skill to get it away...how is that adjudicated?

BTW according to official stats
https://aflratings.com.au/afl-centre-bounces/
Pitto had 72.7% of CBAs
TDK had 27.3% of CBAs

Thats over double of the time spent in the middle so one would assume Pitto would have more hitouts. 10% more HO to Advantage is such a nothng burger when they were playing in different positions.

Nothing against Pitto except he is not very good right now but the best we go so have to live with it.

Go back and read my posts would you. You are not actually reading them.
Be angry and upset at my educate comments all you like, but if the shoe fits, i'm trying to help you.

The stat i provide is not hitouts to advantage.
It is hitouts to advantage based on ruck contests attended.

Simply,
Pittonet attended 51 ruck contests. He had 10 hitouts to advantage - 19.6% of his ruck contests that he attended, he got a hitout to advantage. (This includes all the ones he lost, and ones he got a hitout but it wasn't to the teams advantage)
De Koning attended 33 ruck contests and got 3 hitouts to advantage - 9.1%.
So Pittonet is 10% more likely to get a hitout to advantage.
Make sense?

Also a ruck contest is not limited to centre bounces.