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Topic: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney  (Read 32419 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #105 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Simple question - Why not us?

Of course it's possible.
But
Four teams above us can afford a slip.
We can't.
The home town advantage and interstate travel comes into play.
It's very likely those top four sides have primed themselves to peak at this time so we'll be striking them at their best.
For us to win it all, it will take some effort.
It's nice to have faith and confidence...but it will take a supreme effort and lot of luck.

Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #106 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Of course it's possible.
But
Four teams above us can afford a slip.
We can't.
The home town advantage and interstate travel comes into play.
It's very likely those top four sides have primed themselves to peak at this time so we'll be striking them at their best.
For us to win it all, it will take some effort.
It's nice to have faith and confidence...but it will take a supreme effort and lot of luck.
4 teams above us CAN afford a slip.....but only 1....and only in the first week where they each will play a tougher opponent than us.
We just had 'our slip'....and won't need another one.

You could argue that finishing 5th if the best place to finish because you play the weakest opponent.
The top 4 will have 2 winners and 2 losers......but at what cost to both?
The 2 winners get a week off, but they have a week off now. So its 1 game in 3 weeks prior to the prelim. That can mess with anyones routine and form.
The 2 losers get home field advantage in week 2, sure, but they will probably be carrying more niggles and doubts than their opponents who are coming off a win.

The top 4 are not THAT much better than we are.
The top 4 are more injured than we are.
The top 4 are not as in form as we are.
The top 4 are beatable.

Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #107 –
Just did a breakdown of each finalist vs top 4 and vs top 8 (which includes top 4) and added up the total games played vs finalists.
Makes for some interesting reading and some interesting revelations

Team  : vs4 : vs8 : vs finalists
Pies    : 2-3 : 6-4 : 10 games
Lions  : 3-2 : 8-2 : 10 games
Port   : 2-2 : 5-3 : 8 games
Dees  : 2-2 : 6-4 : 10 games
Blues : 3-3 : 5-6 : 11 games
Saints: 0-5 : 3-6 : 9 games
Giants: 1-3 : 3-6 : 9 games
Swans : 0-5 : 2-7 : 9 games

This shows us a few things...
1. We have probably had the hardest fixture with playing top 8 sides more than any other finalist
2. We have probably had the hardest fixture with playing top 4 sides more than any other finalist
3. We can hold our own against the best in the game - the top 4 (3-3)
4: Whereas 6-8 have won 1** from 14 attempts vs top 4.

Another fact not represented in those numbers is that the Lions are undefeated at home all year. They would need to lose at least 1 to not make the grand final. Ideally lose week 1 against Port so we wouldn't meet them until the GF should we both make it. If they win week 1, and we win weeks 1+2, we'd play them in a prelim in Brisbane.


**fwiw the 1 was GWS vs Dees
Dees 5.15-45
Giants 7.5-47
....which was more about good luck rather than good fortune.

Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #108 –
The fact we have major scalps above us and beaten them with just as many missing players, there is a worry as to winning against us. How to double team our tall towers. Hence we look to open up the forward 50m with other options on a lead. Get our mids to kick for goal on the run or finding new smaller targets. Looking for opportunities they can’t defend so easily by double and triple teaming our big targets. Just became less predictable. No bombing it into the forward 50m unless the foot soldiers are at the drop to clean up the mess and either score with snap shots or lock the ball in. Creating another stoppage. Avoid rebounds out of deference by bombing the ball in without a plan. I don’t see us losing this first finals game. Not if we bring the best intensity and pressure from the first bounce. We should win this game unless the guys without the experience of finals football choke. They just have to treat this as another game. Sydney are a good unit. Not good enough to go all the way or to beat us after a loss. We are also coming off a loss. Kill their dominant mids and they won’t be able to get scoreboard opportunities. I rate our mids slightly above theirs. Even though the All Australian results might say different. My only issue is with our small forwards.  Great on a good day. Terrible if not awake to some hard work. They shouldn’t beat us. Not in my opinion. If they do it shouldn’t be a humiliation. I won’t be angry either way. I am glad we get the experience the players need.
This digital world is too much for us insects to understand.

Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #109 –
Lets beat sydney first and worry about what comes next.

We'll know who we face if we win before the bounce which psychologically might make it harder but our equation is simple enough.

Win week 1 and we are back at the G in week 2.

After that, is irrelevant until the week of the match.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #110 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Lets beat sydney first and worry about what comes next.

We'll know who we face if we win before the bounce which psychologically might make it harder but our equation is simple enough.

Win week 1 and we are back at the G in week 2.

After that, is irrelevant until the week of the match.

Yep
Glass half empty-some (me included)
Glass half full-others

Let's just worry about the glass in front of us first.
 

Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #111 –
Dare to dream the dream

Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #112 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Of course it's possible.
But
Four teams above us can afford a slip.
We can't.
The home town advantage and interstate travel comes into play.
It's very likely those top four sides have primed themselves to peak at this time so we'll be striking them at their best.
For us to win it all, it will take some effort.
It's nice to have faith and confidence...but it will take a supreme effort and lot of luck.

Yes, it's along way. I'll start to think flag if we get to the PF but that will likely be in Brisbane.

I reckon this is our 1978 before our 1979. There are some similarities

Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #113 –
Quote from: laj – on
Yes, it's along way. I'll start to think flag if we get to the PF but that will likely be in Brisbane.

I reckon this is our 1978 before our 1979. There are some similarities


I'll be shocked if Melbourne don't dis assemble Collingwood
Then they will face a similar type team the following week
Brisbane at Brisbane is the biggest of all stumbling blocks.

Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #114 –
We assume given the season that any Brisbane games will be evening affairs, but I wouldn't want to bet on it as it's completely subject to the AFL's whim, they usually schedule both preliminaries on or before the Sat to give the GF teams the minimum 7 day break. But that means one will be daylight and the other night, although they did some weird twilight preliminary last season on the Saturday which I think went over like a lead balloon.

That means Brisbane on the Friday night for whoever has to front them.

I'll just be glad for now to get past the Swans, they are a hardened finals group and won't be at all easy.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #115 –
I'm getting old, blood pressure is a bit too high, heart is not as strong as it use to be, finals are a big deal and full of stress.

I might need to be like;

"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #116 –
need to bring pressure 65 plus tackles ,and please no more LONG BOMBS to charlie v 2 opponents need to be clever with our fwd entries and we should salute

Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #117 –
We've shown our game can match it with the best....the win over the Pies with players missing showed that. From memory they were only missing Bobby Hill from their best team. This time we're likely to field our strongest possible team in maybe two years.

Would've been awhile since our selection committee have had such a tough job.

Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #118 –
Quote from: pinot – on
I'll be shocked if Melbourne don't dis assemble Collingwood
Then they will face a similar type team the following week
Brisbane at Brisbane is the biggest of all stumbling blocks.

Yes, both Melbourne and Carlton have the game needed to stifle Collingwood game style. Melbourne have peaked nicely and are certainly my tip. The only game they lost was to us in the best war of attrition ever, 175 tackles combined, 88-87, where both sides applied brutal pressure, and no-one blinked. Not sure any other side would have stood up to that. Real finals stuff.

I'd tip us but we are 5th.

Re: AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #119 –
Quote from: pew2 – on
need to bring pressure 65 plus tackles ,and please no more LONG BOMBS to charlie v 2 opponents need to be clever with our fwd entries and we should salute

Why wouldn't you kick long bombs when you've got two of the best contested marking forwards in the game and very good crumbing forwards?

Our current mix of long and short kicks to leading players, chip kicks to players in space and long bombs to a contest is working well.  Don't change anything!
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!