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Topic: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications (Read 51365 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #225 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
Geelong wasn't left unbalanced by playing those 4, and there's nothing about playing Pittonet, De Koning, McKay and Charlie Curnow that makes us unbalanced. There's not a single person of note in the CFC who would believe that, not one.

If Collingwood had our 4 players, they would play each and every week.

You are not even reading what i'm writing anymore.

....and perhaps if not a single person of note in CFC doesn't believe that, then thats why we were watching the GF rather than playing in it.

I've had this discussion all year, trying to point out the unimportance of 2 rucks. Nobody listens.
We manage to beat Freo with zero rucks and despite being going to be 'beaten up' by the big mean Sean Darcy.....we manage to win by 50+ points....in Perth. Only then people start to realise its somewhat possible to play with only 1 ruck.....seeing as we didn't need any rucks.

Fast forward 10+ weeks and people have forgotten all about that.  ::) and fallen back into their old critiques like it never happened.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #226 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
Geelong wasn't left unbalanced by playing those 4, and there's nothing about playing Pittonet, De Koning, McKay and Charlie Curnow that makes us unbalanced. There's not a single person of note in the CFC who would believe that, not one.

If Collingwood had our 4 players, they would play each and every week.

I’m not sure that Pitto and the King would be selected ahead of Cox and Cameron but Collingwood won the premiership with two genuine, lumbering rucks and two key forwards.  Admittedly, one of the key forwards was a bit of a decoy because their first choice KPF was injured.

Of course, both of Collingwood’s rucks are a threat when they go forward.  Neither managed a goal in the GF, but they demand a decent defender.

The idea that we’re unbalanced with two rucks and two tall forwards doesn’t stack up, particularly since the alternative is two tall forwards, one ruck and a third tall forward/undersized ruck.

That’s not to say that Brisbane model - one outstanding ruckman backed up by one of their two tall forwards - isn’t effective.  It worked quite well against us, but there were other factors at play.  However, it wasn’t effective against Collingwood.

I don’t understand the reasoning behind some of our team selections but I do understand that the reasoning behind those decisions is based on more and much better information than I have, as well as far superior footy understanding and knowledge.  Games of footy aren’t lost by the MC.  They’re lost because the players aren’t good enough or they’re not at their best, or the gameplan is flawed or not executed well enough.

It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #227 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
...........................

....and perhaps if not a single person of note in CFC doesn't believe that, then thats why we were watching the GF rather than playing in it.

Right. So if the club follows some rando on the internet rather than its own team of experts, we would be holding aloft No17 right about now. Got it. Now I understand. Thanks for the clarification.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #228 –
Quote from: DJC – on
..........................................................................

I don’t understand the reasoning behind some of our team selections but I do understand that the reasoning behind those decisions is based on more and much better information than I have, as well as far superior footy understanding and knowledge.  Games of footy aren’t lost by the MC.  They’re lost because the players aren’t good enough or they’re not at their best, or the gameplan is flawed or not executed well enough.

I agree. I also find some MC decisions bizarre, but the starting point has to be that the MC has probably got it right, and we should try to understand why those decisions were made, even if most of the time we can only guess. Far too many think if their team is different to the MC, then the MC must be in error, which IMO, has it completely back to front.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #229 –
The Freo win was great tactical coaching by Voss, midfield gold, it's not a new tactic, but it's not one any opposition had seen us use before. They have now and it won't be as effective next time.

Also, it takes a heavy toll on the midfield group, and once opposition have seen it they get a heads up at selection like sounding an air raid siren!

Leaving it tactically viable only against select opponents who are playing injured / unfit rucks once every couple of seasons.

The 24x7 grunt option is what happens when the situation is normal, that is the Handbaggers and Filth. For all his foibles, Scott is a great manager of players through the season, he knows what takes a toll on players and how to find ways to get them through the season while managing the load.

PS; Scott tried our Freo tactic against us, when Blicsav and Stanley were limping through the game against us, how did that go for them? It doesn't always have to be a MC selection tactic, sometimes it happens in game out of a necessity.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #230 –
It's not really possible IMO to continuously come up with new party tricks and tactical moves that keep the opposition guessing. At some point you simply have to be a better team. I've heard many losing coaches say they knew exactly how the opposition would play, but they just weren't able to counter it.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #231 –
Quote from: Sub-Zero – on
Good point. Motlop went missing, as did Fogarty. The game was lost from the second quarter onwards when they got on top around the middle and won the clearances. It must be said and many of us would've noticed this for a while, but we're actually too short, in defence! Young's indifferent season has meant McGovern has played as an undersized KPD. When Kemp was omitted, we were even more one down in a tall down there (of course Kemp isn't really a KPD, but he's more of a third tall than Boyd, not that his selection can be faulted).Their own twin talls in Daniher and Hipwood were given treats by their players.
Yep.
I see that tall Durds has been given another contract and was an emergency for one of our finals... reckon he and Young will be competing for the same spot during pre season training.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #232 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
Yep.
I see that tall Durds has been given another contract and was an emergency for one of our finals... reckon he and Young will be competing for the same spot during pre season training.
Reckon tall Durds is like that fire extinguisher you have at home or work you walk past everyday and hope you never have to use....for me he is there to replace one player only in the main and thats Jacob Weitering.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #233 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
Right. So if the club follows some rando on the internet rather than its own team of experts, we would be holding aloft No17 right about now. Got it. Now I understand. Thanks for the clarification.

In 1 post you go over the top talking about how the MC are a team of experts.

In the very next post you agree that they sometimes you find them completely bizarre. Given they are human and fallible,
Its clear that sometimes they get it wrong.

So apparently they only get it wrong when i don't disagree with them?

......and nowhere did i say we would win the prelim, or the GF. But there is a difference between fighting man to man and fighting one hand behind your back.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #234 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
In 1 post you go over the top talking about how the MC are a team of experts.

In the very next post you agree that they sometimes you find them completely bizarre. Given they are human and fallible,
Its clear that sometimes they get it wrong.

So apparently they only get it wrong when i don't disagree with them?

......and nowhere did i say we would win the prelim, or the GF. But there is a difference between fighting man to man and fighting one hand behind your back.

My assertion that I don't understand some MC choices is a failing on my part, not the MC's. By the very nature of the industry, we are locked out of the knowledge base and experience base required to understand the decisions made. My feelings about strange selections are a result of this, and not because I can pick when they've stuffed up or because I know things they don't.

I don’t accept your thesis that 2 rucks and 2kpf is unworkable for us. I don’t accept your thesis that you can pick a better team than the MC. I don’t accept your thesis that you can see things the MC cannot. My lack of acceptance of these has absolutely nothing to do with any stupidity, laziness, or confusion on my part. It has nothing to do with not reading your voluminous contributions. I simply don’t agree. Many on here don’t agree, our club doesn’t agree, significant sections of the AFL community don’t agree.

I completely accept that my position is based to a degree on an appeal to authority, and I acknowledge that in order for my position to be true, the process for selecting a team must be relatively free of both corruption and incompetence. And I’m perfectly happy with those limitations.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #235 –
I think that probably is the crux of the argument here.
It's not that folks don't read and understand points that are being made by others, it's just that they have a different perspective and opinion.

Some will argue team selections stopped us from progressing.
Some will argue the physical toll and high pressure game we played caught up with us in the end.
I'm in the second camp, but it could be one, both or neither.
Maybe we just went as far as we were capable of going given our level of development at the moment.

At this time of the year there are keys to getting it all right.
Every year only one team goes close...this year, as distasteful as it is.... it was Collingwood.

To get it right there are probably three main aspects in play (other than the obvious skill and ability)

Tactical
Physical (fitness and injury)
Attitude and effort.

Blind Freddy could see we were struggling with aspects of the physical, with key movers hampered by injury.
Add to that the physical and mental toll of a run that meant we were playing for our final existence every week after they bye.
And that meant it was always going to be an "effort for the ages" to even get to a Grand Final... but gee, we went close.

It's never a 'one option fits all' with team selection and there are times when different combinations are required.
Yes, We can be the side that everyone stuggles to match up on, but we need to take account of the opposition strengths too, because form is not always consistent, and with 22/3 players in a side there will be days when things just don't click with certain players.
That's when an oppostition can cut you up.
A side doesn't have to be too far off the boil for an upset.

So it's done and dusted...the one thing you can almost put your money on is that the Carlton side that plays the last game of 2024 will have a slightly different look to the Carlton side that took the field against Brisbane...maybe not major, but different.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #236 –
I'm not claiming to be an oracle.
I'm not suggested i am 100% right, 100% of the time.
That doesn't mean i am incapable of being right.....and i am not alone on this.

As an example...
Plenty on here were calling for Dow to be picked throughout the year.
The public, the media, the supporters.....everyone.....except the MC.
When the MC picked him, he did well...he did so well he kept getting games.
He did so well, that he is now a trade target when previously he was top 3 players to be delisted.

Full disclosure, i was NOT one calling for Dow to be picked, but it appears the wisdom of the masses were correct in giving him a shot.

Myself and EB have been on the same page with this stuff for a while....and a few others seem to be as well.
There is more than 1 way to skin a cat.
For this lions game, perhaps there was nothing we could've done to make a difference......but perhaps there was. We'll never know.

I think i've been pretty clear from the pre-season my thoughts on team selection that are specific to OUR team.
I voiced those reservations ad nauseum, including before the Lions game.
It panned out as i expected. Maybe its coincidence. Maybe its dumb luck. Maybe if the game was played tomorrow it will be different.........maybe it wont.

You, and others, point out that we lost because we tired and busted....and sure thats an excuse/reason/whatever. You know what, our 2 points of view are not opposites.

You all know my stance on Pittonet. I've been pretty vocal on Harry underperforming as well.
You know what i would've done....
Dropped Pittonet and played Jack.
Pitto was tired and busted, more than anyone else out there. Getting some fresh legs, more run, more pressure from his position would've made more difference than most......and he was one of our better talls on the night.
 

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #237 –
Quote from: DJC – on
I’m not sure that Pitto and the King would be selected ahead of Cox and Cameron but Collingwood won the premiership with two genuine, lumbering rucks and two key forwards.  Admittedly, one of the key forwards was a bit of a decoy because their first choice KPF was injured.

Of course, both of Collingwood’s rucks are a threat when they go forward.  Neither managed a goal in the GF, but they demand a decent defender.

The idea that we’re unbalanced with two rucks and two tall forwards doesn’t stack up, particularly since the alternative is two tall forwards, one ruck and a third tall forward/undersized ruck.

That’s not to say that Brisbane model - one outstanding ruckman backed up by one of their two tall forwards - isn’t effective.  It worked quite well against us, but there were other factors at play.  However, it wasn’t effective against Collingwood.

I don’t understand the reasoning behind some of our team selections but I do understand that the reasoning behind those decisions is based on more and much better information than I have, as well as far superior footy understanding and knowledge.  Games of footy aren’t lost by the MC.  They’re lost because the players aren’t good enough or they’re not at their best, or the gameplan is flawed or not executed well enough.



I'm not sure brisbane muffed their selections.

There's lots of points being made by lots of people, but brisbane lost the grand final because they too had a few players that failed to put in a good shift.  Hipwood was rubbish, and Berry played a very poor ultimately match costing grand final, and simply those two having a bad game vs a good one may have been a bigger factor in winning amd losing than any other factor.

Collingwood didn't have a dud player on the day.  That's why they won.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #238 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
I'm not claiming to be an oracle.

You kind of are... :D

Quote from: kruddler – on
If you predict what going to happen based on the team that's picked....and then it happens...is that dumb luck? Coincidence? Perhaps it's people knowing a thing or 2 about football.

Which kind of suggests that folks who disagree don't know as much about football.

Yet some of those very posters were 'predicting' that we'd struggle to make it through because of the physical toll of the fightback... and injuries.
So in the end they were just as correct.
They obvioulsy know a little bit about football and its demands.

It's not always about being right, or having the last word.
We have to accept that sometimes our analysis won't always be shared by others, because they're seeing different things.
We can look at a player or team, make an observation, and then find stats to justify that observation.
But often we'll look at those stats with a bias, and ignore other aspects or statistics that give a slightly different perspective.

The thing about football is that it's not always the statistical/analytical side that wins through.
Football is just as much about the unpredictable.... the player rising to the occasion, the result against the odds...injuries.
That's the beauty of the game.



Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications

Reply #239 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
It's not really possible IMO to continuously come up with new party tricks and tactical moves that keep the opposition guessing. At some point you simply have to be a better team. I've heard many losing coaches say they knew exactly how the opposition would play, but they just weren't able to counter it.
Yes, in the end it's a contest, I believe Voss told the team as much as part of his you have to win finals more than once talk. A team versus a team, and if you have enough people win and fewer losers on the day you probably win.

There are moments when "New Tactics" work, we see it in a honeymoon period for stand-in or new coaches, and we see it in debut seasons for good players. But it's that 2nd or 3rd season that is the tell, and the 2nd season blues is common among players who are no longer a mystery to opponents. Which by the way is why Walsh remains such an exceptional player, because as you mentioned, they know his tricks but just can't do anything about them!

Part of the MC / Coaching role, is to precisely pick the right moments when you use variations in tactics, and to not overdo them to avoid becoming predictable. Which is also why Malthouse, Pagan and others pass their use-by-date, not because they are incapable, but often because they refuse to change and as such become too predictable. They are very very well study as opponents!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"