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Topic: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon (Read 17933 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #75 –
Quote from: townsendcalling – on
Interestingly, we bemoaned the fact that for weeks we were missing Fogarty's tackle pressure in the forward 50 yet on Sunday he didn't lay one!!

And that’s where the tackle myth comes in. You don’t have to tackle to put pressure on your opponents.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #76 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Essendon laid more tackles , we had more turnovers and they even had better disposal efficiency overall...however if you cant kick straight when it matters then none of those other stats add up to much effect on the result.
We did shade them in the clearances where TDK did his best work and again we got smashed in the hitouts but those Goldstein taps had little influence at stoppages or on the result.

Tom was interviewed on SEN(?) recently and revealed a lot of information about our ruck tactics.  He gave a lot of credit to Matty Kreuzer for preparing him for his role in the ruck.

To start with, he knows everything there is to know about the opposition ruck; what leg he jumps off, what hand he prefers to hit with and where he likes to direct his hitouts. With Matty’s help, he develops a plan to defeat the opposition ruck, and that may not necessarily involve winning hitouts.

Tom is in charge at ruck contests and positions the midfielders to both take advantage of hitouts he wins and to shark or neutralise hitouts won by the opposition rucks.  Tom’s second and third efforts play a big part in that.

And that’s where the hitout to advantage statistic has little meaning. It’s the ruck-midfield combination that negates opposition hitouts and produces clearances that counts.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!
 

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #77 –
Quote from: DJC – on
And that’s where the hitout to advantage statistic has little meaning. It’s the ruck-midfield combination that negates opposition hitouts and produces clearances that counts.

It doesn't have little meaning, it backs up what you are saying. If all goes to plan, we get the hitout to advantage.
If it all goes to plan for the opposition, they do

It goes hand in hand with clearances.

Where it bares little resemblance is in hitouts themselves. They can go anywhere to anyone, including directly to the opposition. That is meaningless.

Also backs up what I've been saying a out backup rucks. The hitouts they get are irrelevant, it's the end result that matters (ie clearance) and nullifying the opposition's ability to get a clearance.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #78 –
Quote from: DJC – on
And that’s where the tackle myth comes in. You don’t have to tackle to put pressure on your opponents.

My view is entirely different when the opposition has field position like Essendon did. Tackling is the Alpha and Omega always has been - rucks need midfield numbers in conjuction with hit outs . We were very lucky Essendon did not kick straight and Cin got himself on the scoreboard twice there are many ways one can look at it. I'd put it down the boys were motivated but tired but need to do better.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #79 –
We'll have games where it works and games where it doesn't. 

Regarding hitouts to advantage I think this statistic is a measure of the ability of a ruck to connect with his mids.  It could be argued the stronger the midfield the harder it is to gauge how capable a ruckman a team has particularly if the tactics aren't there to win clearance dominance.

The other component of that is that our mids are that strong that you might get skewed stats because they are capable of beating a lot of opposition midfields and winning the ball irrespective of who's rucking.  Would be fascinating to see mirkov ruck at afl level and see how he goes.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #80 –
Hitouts have always been and are largely worthless, directing where the football goes oddly has very little to do with actually winning the hitout and it's about positioning, But too many fans hear rhetoric like that and infer "rucks are worthless"!

In ruck work the 2nd efforts are worth 10x whatever hitouts they may get, that is why having a ruck who only wins taps and does little else is mostly worthless. Winning taps might make life a little easier for some of the Mids but it will torch the team, the difference in importance is why Kreuzer went No.1 and Warnock was a spud. Pitto is 5x the player this season because of how he follows up his initial effort.

As I've mentioned many times, you can control the stoppages by the way you jump, angle of approach, etc., etc.., Where an opponent will direct the footy is massively influenced by your own ruck even if your own ruck isn't winning taps. Which side of the body you target, whether you turn left or right, whether you use your left or right arm, will all alter the opponents positioning and tactics.

Any stat measuring an individual that depends on the actions of a 3rd party is next to useless, as a measure of rucks alone the Hitout to Adv stat is much the same, it's like blaming or crediting a Mids for a small forward who either drops or marks on the chest.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #81 –
Just out of curiousity...

We lost the hit-outs 48-23.
What were the 'hitouts to advantage' stats

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #82 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Just out of curiousity...

We lost the hit-outs 48-23.
What were the 'hitouts to advantage' stats
Goldstein basically blocked de Koning at every bounce - he only got penalised for it once, but it must have happened at least 10 times - turned his back on TDK and camped under the ball.  As such, his hitouts were largely rubbish.  Once the ball hit the deck, TDK massacred him.
This is now the longest premiership drought in the history of the Carlton Football Club - more evidence of climate change?

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #83 –
Quote from: tonyo – on
Goldstein basically blocked de Koning at every bounce - he only got penalised for it once, but it must have happened at least 10 times - turned his back on TDK and camped under the ball.  As such, his hitouts were largely rubbish.  Once the ball hit the deck, TDK massacred him.
That tactic is largely valid under the current rules / interpretation, which is why I have previously warned about the consequences of the new interpretation. You can block and as long as you touch the footy you'll be safe.

While it delivered CheatsFC no advantage as they only really have the one viable inside Mid, I'm surprised they failed to give Stringer a Midfield run, it won't be ineffective if a club with some stronger Mids does it to TDK. So it must be a horses for courses approach, and at times we will need Pitto in to wrestle the opposition.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #84 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Just out of curiousity...

We lost the hit-outs 48-23.
What were the 'hitouts to advantage' stats

Player - HTA - RC - HTA/RC% - (HO) - Clearances
De Koning - 4 - 71 - 5.6% - (19) - 11
Goldstein  - 6 - 73 - 8.2% - (35) - 9
2m Peter   - 2 - 27 - 7.4% - (13) - 4
H. McKay  - 1 - 15 - 6.7% - (3) - 0
Cripps      - 1 - 8 - 12.5%  - (1) - 7

De Koning was the least effective ruck from everyone who attended a ruck contest in terms of HTA, but his clearances were through the roof.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #85 –
one more thing going by talk back on  sen ess supporters are very confident they can beat us  ,redman /draper next time. Hodge is another 1 who thinks that to ,My belief is that alot of water to go under bridge

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #86 –
I just replayed the first quarter and took note of the ruck contests.

Goldstein: 17 ruck contests, 2 hitouts, 0 HTA, 3 clearances
De Koning: 10 ruck contests, 3 hitouts, 0 HTA, 1 clean possession, 1 free kick, 2 clearances
Wright: 4 ruck contests, 1 hitout, 1 HTA*
McKay: 6 ruck contests, 3 hitouts, 0 HTA
Cripps: 3 ruck contests, 1 hitout, 1 HTA
Kennedy: 2 ruck contests, 0 hitouts

*This was probably a fortuitous HTA in that Wright attempted to take clean possession and the ball ricocheted to his teammate.

Cripps just shaded Wright as the most effective ruckman on the ground in the first quarter if you're judging by HTA. 

In the absence of HTAs, Goldstein was more effective in the ruck than De Koning in that he had three clearances to De Koning's two.  However, Goldstein's clearances were from second efforts after the ball had gone to ground.  De Koning's clearances were from a clean possession and a free kick in the ruck contest.

It's interesting that there were only 10 hitouts from 21 ruck contests
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #87 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Just out of curiousity...

We lost the hit-outs 48-23.
What were the 'hitouts to advantage' stats
Goldstein won 6 to 4.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #88 –
Quote from: tonyo – on
Goldstein basically blocked de Koning at every bounce - he only got penalised for it once, but it must have happened at least 10 times - turned his back on TDK and camped under the ball.  As such, his hitouts were largely rubbish.  Once the ball hit the deck, TDK massacred him.
Something you also see in the 2's. Unfortunately Mirkov doesn't have the same footy IQ and doesn't get the ball like de Koning does, but he gets shepherded out all the time.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #89 –
Quote from: pew2 – on
one more thing going by talk back on  sen ess supporters are very confident they can beat us  ,redman /draper next time. Hodge is another 1 who thinks that to ,My belief is that alot of water to go under bridge
We'll have Pittonet, Cerra & co back. Pitto is a better ruckman than Draper and hasn't played much against the Drug Cheats. Cerra is the missing piece of our present midfield puzzle, although I hope to see us get more pace in there before too much longer. Redman won't matter when the our clearances go down Charlie's throat.
Live Long and Prosper!