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Topic: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon (Read 17910 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #90 –
Quote from: crashlander – on
Something you also see in the 2's. Unfortunately Mirkov doesn't have the same footy IQ and doesn't get the ball like de Koning does, but he gets shepherded out all the time.
Mirkov allows smaller lighter players to push him away from the ball,  he needs to stand his ground better and get on the angry pills and throw his weight around. Height is a great asset some really tall players just rely on too much and never expand their game.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #91 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Mirkov allows smaller lighter players to push him away from the ball,  he needs to stand his ground better and get on the angry pills and throw his weight around. Height is a great asset some really tall players just rely on too much and never expand their game.

I  noticed on the weekend, at centre bounces, his focus was on the opposition ruckman and not the ball.
Maybe he was looking to be more physical.
Not sure it worked too well though.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #92 –
Quote from: DJC – on
I just replayed the first quarter and took note of the ruck contests.

Goldstein: 17 ruck contests, 2 hitouts, 0 HTA, 3 clearances
De Koning: 10 ruck contests, 3 hitouts, 0 HTA, 1 clean possession, 1 free kick, 2 clearances
Wright: 4 ruck contests, 1 hitout, 1 HTA*
McKay: 6 ruck contests, 3 hitouts, 0 HTA
Cripps: 3 ruck contests, 1 hitout, 1 HTA
Kennedy: 2 ruck contests, 0 hitouts

*This was probably a fortuitous HTA in that Wright attempted to take clean possession and the ball ricocheted to his teammate.

Cripps just shaded Wright as the most effective ruckman on the ground in the first quarter if you're judging by HTA. 

In the absence of HTAs, Goldstein was more effective in the ruck than De Koning in that he had three clearances to De Koning's two.  However, Goldstein's clearances were from second efforts after the ball had gone to ground.  De Koning's clearances were from a clean possession and a free kick in the ruck contest.

It's interesting that there were only 10 hitouts from 21 ruck contests

Im sure that this stats are all biased based on the midfield roving and their relative opposition.  When we played Sydney, we could have had Max Gawn rucking and the result would have been the same.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #93 –
Quote from: pew2 – on
one more thing going by talk back on  sen ess supporters are very confident they can beat us  ,redman /draper next time. Hodge is another 1 who thinks that to ,My belief is that alot of water to go under bridge

3 of the qtrs. they were smacked. Soon as they challenged Carlton blew them away at the start of the last qtr getting 7 goals in front. Foot went off the throat and Essendon kicked a few junk goals. If Carlton kept the foot on the throat they'd have won by anything. Once your 7 goals behind mid last qtr then you have been well and truly belted.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #94 –
Quote from: Lods – on
I  noticed on the weekend, at centre bounces, his focus was on the opposition ruckman and not the ball.
Maybe he was looking to be more physical.
Not sure it worked too well though.

Fair point,   I thought he was looking for the contact as Johnson the opposing ruckman I think it was is a strong looking player and more of the push and shove style, the other ruck Jorgansen was more of a jumper and Mirkov I thought handled him better.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #95 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Im sure that this stats are all biased based on the midfield roving and their relative opposition.  When we played Sydney, we could have had Max Gawn rucking and the result would have been the same.

If you listen to Tom's interview, he goes into a fair bit of detail about the "zones" where he and other rucks endeavour to direct their hitouts.  The midfielders work these zones to gather hitouts from either ruck or to tackle the opposition midfielders if they take possession.  The ruckmen and other midfielders are engaged with setting blocks, tackling, accepting handpasses, chasing loose balls or attempting smothers.  The ability of the ruckman to direct the ball to where his midfielder can take possession is one part of a complex process.  When you have two ruckmen focusing  on trying to prevent each other hitting the ball to their preferred zones, you get lots of no result contests and several possessions, or half possessions, before the clearance or another stoppage, as happened on Sunday.

We probably would have fared worse with Gawn because he and our midfielders haven't worked and practised together.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!
 

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #96 –
Quote from: laj – on
3 of the qtrs. they were smacked. Soon as they challenged Carlton blew them away at the start of the last qtr getting 7 goals in front. Foot went off the throat and Essendon kicked a few junk goals. If Carlton kept the foot on the throat they'd have won by anything. Once your 7 goals behind mid last qtr then you have been well and truly belted.

And Essendon supporters are particularly delusional when it comes to the ability of their team.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #97 –
Quote from: DJC – on
And Essendon supporters are particularly delusional when it comes to the ability of their team.
Absolutely!
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #98 –
Quote from: DJC – on
I just replayed the first quarter and took note of the ruck contests.

Goldstein: 17 ruck contests, 2 hitouts, 0 HTA, 3 clearances
De Koning: 10 ruck contests, 3 hitouts, 0 HTA, 1 clean possession, 1 free kick, 2 clearances
Wright: 4 ruck contests, 1 hitout, 1 HTA*
McKay: 6 ruck contests, 3 hitouts, 0 HTA
Cripps: 3 ruck contests, 1 hitout, 1 HTA
Kennedy: 2 ruck contests, 0 hitouts

*This was probably a fortuitous HTA in that Wright attempted to take clean possession and the ball ricocheted to his teammate.

Cripps just shaded Wright as the most effective ruckman on the ground in the first quarter if you're judging by HTA. 

In the absence of HTAs, Goldstein was more effective in the ruck than De Koning in that he had three clearances to De Koning's two.  However, Goldstein's clearances were from second efforts after the ball had gone to ground.  De Koning's clearances were from a clean possession and a free kick in the ruck contest.

It's interesting that there were only 10 hitouts from 21 ruck contests

Don't feed the beast, DJC! :D

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #99 –
You know what I'm getting from all these stats is this...
Hit out stats are totally useless.
HTA stats are also pretty useless given their low frequency.
Even clearance stats aren't that reliable unless the clearance clearly advantages your side.

The thing that really matters is the connection between your ruckman and his midfielders in terms of positioning, both attacking and defensive, and the second efforts of all players in the vicinity.

That's not something you can measure with a statistic.
It's something you observe.

If you're in any doubt about who was the most effective ruckman in our game last weekend just watch the game again.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #100 –
Quote from: Lods – on
You know what I'm getting from all these stats is this...
Hit out stats are totally useless.
HTA stats are also pretty useless given their low frequency.
Even clearance stats aren't that reliable unless the clearance clearly advantages your side.

The thing that really matters is the connection between your ruckman and his midfielders in terms of positioning, both attacking and defensive, and the second efforts of all players in the vicinity.

That's not something you can measure with a statistic.
It's something you observe.

If you're in any doubt about who was the most effective ruckman in our game last weekend just watch the game again.

You could probably say the same about most footy stats viewed in isolation, but hitout stats are particularly fraught because the ruckman is only part of the stoppage process; his success relies in part on the ability of his midfielders and their combined efforts to win the ball and get an effective disposal away.  His success also involves nullifying the opposition ruck’s ability to direct the ball to his preferred zones and, with his midfielders, preventing the opposition from winning possession and getting an effective disposal.  Stats can’t measure all of that.

De Koning was influential around the ground as well as being part of an effective stoppage process.  He was clearly best on ground despite “losing” the hitouts and HTAs, and not laying a tackle.


It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #101 –
Quote from: DJC – on
You could probably say the same about most footy stats viewed in isolation.

Absolutely.
It's not so much the use of stats that's the problem in many cases
It's the selective use of individual stats, and the ignoring of others, that contribute to the overall picture and don't necessarily support an argument or a point being made

A lot was made of the number of inside 50s that Essendon had compared to ours.

To get a proper picture and determine the effectiveness of that statistic we need to also consider other factors-

The shallowness of the inside 50s
The rebound factor
The accuracy (disposal efficiency) inside 50s
The position where the inside 50 ended (on an angle, directly in front, deep into a pocket)
Goalkicking accuracy-goals, points, out of bounds
Structure- players loose, kicks to contests etc etc.

If they're to be used in meaningful way all contributing stats need to be included.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #102 –
There is one stat that tells the story of the game:  Peter Wright - zero marks.

In a previous post, I referred to the 21 to 25 shots at goal statistic.  In fact, that’s not shots at goal because it doesn’t include shots that miss completely, drop short or are marked by either team.  It’s not scoring shots either because it includes rushed behinds (five to Essendon, one to us); that was actually 20 shots each.

Footy statistics are fascinating, both for their usefulness in appreciating the subtleties of the game and for the disconnect between statistics and performance that can often be the case.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #103 –
Quote from: Lods – on
If they're to be used in meaningful way all contributing stats need to be included.
Even then it can be muddy, because like the situation with the rules the AFL enforce there own interpretation on the events that generate a stat.

We've been through this before, and perhaps the best example is what the AFL define as a contested possession versus what the average fans thinks of as a contested possession. For example I'm not surprised if fans think a contested possession requires some physical contest with contact from an opponent, like shoulder to shoulder attacking the footy, but the AFL definition only requires an opponent in the approximate vicinity. A player in the vicinity who wins the footy gets a Contested Possession stat, and the player in the vicinity exerting what we can best describe as "proximity" gets a Pressure Act or 1%er.

It's one of the reasons why you can't even compare stats from one source versus another, because they use different definitions.

A while back there was an isolated example of stupidity of stats, a player at a ruck contest was or wasn't credited for a HtA for having the ball bouncing off his head directly to a team-mate. Technically it's probably correct for either outcome, but it's a measure of luck more than a measure of ruck work. Many times we've seen rucks miss the footy completely for it to then come off a knee or shoulder and go to the advantage of a team-mate, sometimes in a direction that is seemingly random, who decides? A stat yes, a measure of skill, hardly!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #104 –
The most important stat from the Essendon game (and all games for that matter) is the Points For v the Points Against. Carlton 96 to Essendon 70 is what I care most about. Everything else can be read in many ways to suit anyone and many times will just muddy the water.