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Topic: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon (Read 17894 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #120 –
THE IMPROVEMENT has been as significant as it has been rapid for Tom De Koning.

The young Carlton ruck enjoyed arguably the best game of his career on Sunday evening, helping to drag the Blues over the line against Essendon and demonstrating his exciting athletic profile once again.

De Koning's 17 contested possessions were a career-best amount, while his 24 disposals were just one shy of the career-high 25 he notched three weeks ago in a win over Gold Coast as his ball-winning abilities continue to improve.

Meanwhile, his 27.2 AFL Player Ratings points – Champion Data's most definitive statistic to measure influence on a contest – were not only a career-high, but were also the most anyone amassed across the entire round of football.

But the 24-year-old is unique, in the sense that he embodies a new wave of AFL ruckmen that are impacting and influencing games in a variety of ways not necessarily typical of the elite big men of years gone by.

For example, De Koning was last weekend's most influential player despite the fact he had only 19 hitouts and four hitouts-to-advantage. For context, his opponent last Sunday night, Todd Goldstein, had 35 hitouts and six to advantage.
So, what makes De Koning so good?

On Sunday night, Champion Data notes the 204cm ruck won first possession 15 times after stoppages. It was the most of anyone across the weekend, three clear of Brisbane's Lachie Neale and five ahead of his captain Patrick Cripps.

Seven of those 15 first possessions were from centre-bounce, tied with Sydney midfielder James Rowbottom as the most across the weekend. His 11 clearances were joint-most across the entire round of football, while his six centre-bounce clearances stood alone as the most.

Essentially, while De Koning isn't a dominant tap ruck in the traditional sense, he is now among the League's best modern ruck-midfielders and provides the Blues with yet another onballer that follows up and covers the ground.
Indeed, his numbers across much of the last month highlight this. Since the side's round 11 win over the Suns, which coincided with a finger injury that ruled out his fellow ruck Marc Pittonet, he has been the League's most dominant big man.
Champion Data notes De Koning has averaged 21.1 AFL Player Ratings points, 22.3 disposals, 14.7 contested possessions, 9.7 clearances, 4.7 centre-bounce clearances and 6.7 score involvements in that stretch. It ranks him No.1 among the season averages of all rucks throughout that run.
That's not to diminish Pittonet's influence in the period between returning from an injury-interrupted pre-season and going out of the side due to his finger issue. Strangely enough, between rounds five and 10 – when Pittonet played alongside De Koning – he was Carlton's second-highest rated player behind Cripps.
De Koning simply offers Carlton something different and, as history would suggest, something more effective and sustainable in terms of helping the team's turnover game through his versatility.

Teams still amass the bulk of their score from turnover. For context, the League's best side, Sydney, has scored 59.9 percent of its total output from turnover this year, compared to 36.6 percent from stoppage and 3.5 percent from kick-ins.

Carlton is a much better turnover team when De Koning is playing as a sole ruck. According to Champion Data, the team's scores from turnover differential is -5.3 when Pittonet is paired with De Koning, but +25.4 when De Koning plays alone.
It will make for a fascinating dynamic when Carlton returns from its bye with a Friday night clash against Geelong in round 15, which will coincide with Pittonet's likely comeback from his ongoing finger injury.

The numbers would suggest De Koning should remain as the club's sole ruck. If it ultimately remains that way, Blues coach Michael Voss might very well have the AFL's next best big man at his disposal.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #121 –
@MBB....
So only Patrick Cripps has been more influential than either of TDK and Pittonet over the past 2 months..........when they are played as the #1 ruck.

So why play 2 rucks?

Seems pretty clear.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #122 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Not if I’m Orazio Fantasia or Corey Durdin … and you refuse to change your boots.

The point remains that AFL statistics don’t measure independent events but attempt to quantify each of a series of interrelated events.

As mentioned previously, the list of AFL stats we are used to are just the tip of the iceberg.
Champion data have 100's of different stats that we don't ever hear about.

Have a look at David King doing some of his analysis on fox footy and listen to the stats he uses and tell me where you've seen them in print or online before.....you haven't.

@Lods...
If i had access to the amount of stats that are available (just not to the public) perhaps i could give you some winners.
But alas, i'm attempting to read the tea leaves and the force.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #123 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
As mentioned previously, the list of AFL stats we are used to are just the tip of the iceberg.
Champion data have 100's of different stats that we don't ever hear about.

Have a look at David King doing some of his analysis on fox footy and listen to the stats he uses and tell me where you've seen them in print or online before.....you haven't.

@Lods...
If i had access to the amount of stats that are available (just not to the public) perhaps i could give you some winners.
But alas, i'm attempting to read the tea leaves and the force.

It really doesn’t matter what stats David King or any of the “footy analysts” uses; the garbage in, garbage out principle still holds. 

I still have statistics text books from uni and bad memories of using punch cards for computer analyses of data for my thesis.  As basic as it was, that is statistical analysis and that’s not what gets churned out by the football statistics industry.

Let’s say Baggers wins a ruck contest and directs the ball to me.  I kick the ball 30m downfield where it’s marked by an opposition player.  Baggers gets a hitout to advantage and I get a clearance and a clanger.

Joe Daniher took 12 marks tonight. An outstanding performance … unless you know that a significant part of that total came in the last few minutes of the game when Brisbane was running the clock down.

Then there’s Alex Cincotta. He averages just over 9 disposals in his last 5 games but has been one of our most influential and effective players.

Perhaps Champion Data does have some meaningful stats that they are keeping to themselves.  I suspect that it’s more a case of manipulating dodgy data to promote controversy and interest.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #124 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Perhaps Champion Data does have some meaningful stats that they are keeping to themselves.  I suspect that it’s more a case of manipulating dodgy data to promote controversy and interest.

They're a business, much like any other...
They'll put out some statistics to the general public that give half a picture.
That's a bit of a carrot
They'll sell more advanced (flashy) ones to subscribers.
The more in depth ones they'll give to the clubs and commentators...at a price.

At each level they'll probably carry a bit more weight than the previous level, but still the unpredicatbility and changing nature of the game mean they're only ever a snapshot of a point in time and record of the past.

They have little bearing on team and individuals in the games ahead, as both develop or change things up.
As a predictive tool for individuals they have limited value.
They may be useful as a review tool to initiate changes in tactics or roles but those are probably the stats we don't see.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #125 –
Quote from: Lods – on
They're a business, much like any other...
They'll put out some statistics to the general public that give half a picture.
That's a bit of a carrot
They'll sell more advanced (flashy) ones to subscribers.
The more in depth ones they'll give to the clubs and commentators...at a price.

At each level they'll probably carry a bit more weight than the previous level, but still the unpredicatbility and changing nature of the game mean they're only ever a snapshot of a point in time and record of the past.

They have little bearing on team and individuals in the games ahead, as both develop or change things up.
As a predictive tool for individuals they have limited value.
They may be useful as a review tool to initiate changes in tactics or roles but those are probably the stats we don't see.

The green is the key. We simply don't see them.

In every scenario DJC used to 'poke holes' in the argument, there is something to cover those scenarios.

1. Hitouts/clearances that lead to a score.

2. Weighted rankings based on game situation. Eg junk time

3. Output vs opponents output. Both perceived and difference from the average.
That is if 1 bloke averages 25 and only gets 10, he is 40% of his average. If cincotta limits his opponents to 40% of their average every week, you notice. They also keep track of who stands on who at any given contest.

Think about it this way....
The kicks, handball, marks and goals...along with tackles and hitouts etc are grade 1 level stats. Basic understanding. There are year 12 level stats that we sometimes hear about but largely we know nothing about. There are university and PHD level statistics that we don't even know exist.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #126 –
The question that stems from that then Kruds,  is this.... if all that is true.

Should we question a coaching group, armed with University level stats, who goes with two rucks instead of one, based on our primary school level info?

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #127 –
Quote from: Lods – on
The question that stems from that then Kruds,  is this.... if all that is true.

Should we question a coaching group, armed with University level stats, who goes with two rucks instead of one, based on our primary school level info?
Maybe they have all the info but are failing the class. 😉

There was a picture that went viral of a Collingwood coaches box from when Buckley was head coach. It counted something like 25 people in the coaches box. There was an explainer of which each person was and it turned out there were 2 stats/data guys in the coaching box.
Soon after the coaching soft cap was introduced.

Ignore the data at your own risk.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #128 –
It goes to the crux of the argument though...

My issue isn't with the use of statistics.
It never has been.
It's the 'selective' use of statistics that sees data included because it supports an argument, while other data is omitted or ignored because it doesn't.
Given that the really advanced data isn't even available to the average punter, or even it seems to general subscribers to some of these stats sites, you only get a limited picture.

I've spoken a bit about variables affecting stats.
Well there, hidden in those very very advanced statistics are some of the 'variables' being somewhat addressed.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #129 –
Most of the time players influence the game without a stat.  That's extremely difficult to determine.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #130 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Most of the time players influence the game without a stat.  That's extremely difficult to determine.

There is something you can find on the AFL app in regards to players and running.
Lists the top 5 in a few different stats, none of which appear on your traditional stat sheet, but its tracked none-the-less.

Distance covered.
Distance covered at high speed
Speed (max)
Speed (avg)
Total Sprints
Repeat Sprints
Average speed in attack
Average speed in defense


....and there is team work rate (attack and defense) and a variety of other things.

,.....and thats just some of the stuff we know about.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #131 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
There is something you can find on the AFL app in regards to players and running.
Lists the top 5 in a few different stats, none of which appear on your traditional stat sheet, but its tracked none-the-less.

Distance covered.
Distance covered at high speed
Speed (max)
Speed (avg)
Total Sprints
Repeat Sprints
Average speed in attack
Average speed in defense


....and there is team work rate (attack and defense) and a variety of other things.

,.....and thats just some of the stuff we know about.
you don't have to move to influence a game.  It's about filling space, making a contest or providing an exit kick and being ignored.  Some of it is completely incapable of being tracked.  Last night I watched Rowan Marshall lead Harris Andrews out of defense with a strong lead up to the ball carrier on the wing.  He didn't turn back when the first lead wasn't honoured.  He turned left and led hard to the pocket dragging Harris Andrews out of the defensive fifty with him which leaves king without the greatest fullback of the last 3 years on his clacker.  So his two sprints ignored the most important part of it.  That's the point I'm making.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson
 

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #132 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on


Carlton is a much better turnover team when De Koning is playing as a sole ruck. According to Champion Data, the team's scores from turnover differential is -5.3 when Pittonet is paired with De Koning, but +25.4 when De Koning plays alone.


I have been saying that since Pitto played two games and started losing games.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #133 –
Quote from: Lods – on
The question that stems from that then Kruds,  is this.... if all that is true.

Should we question a coaching group, armed with University level stats, who goes with two rucks instead of one, based on our primary school level info?

I think thats unfair - we may not have played at the highest level but sure as hell have watched a thousand games.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #134 –
Quote from: pinot – on
I think thats unfair - we may not have played at the highest level but sure as hell have watched a thousand games.

I'm probably right up there for games watched. ;)
And we still can't get agreement. :D

Just to clarify...the University v Primary level was referring to the access to statistics...not anyone's football nous.

The coaches have access to statistics we don't.  They make judgements and changes (right or wrong) based partly on these.