Skip to main content
Topic: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth (Read 37281 times) previous topic - next topic
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #60
I keep thinking where do we have an excess of players - and that's the midfield.?

B: Newman  Weitering  Cowan
HB: Kemp  McGovern Cincotta
C: Hollands   Hewett  Acres
HF: Williams   Lemmey   Carroll
F: Owies    Kennedy   Motlop
R: Pittonet  Cripps  Walsh
I: Young Binns Wilson Lord

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #61
My side (not much choice) with all 6 of Curnow McKay Saad Boyd Fogarty Martin confirmed out

When you look at it it's actually not a bad side we can cobble together.
It's well off our best but...
There's plenty of senior experience there, and the young ones have a golden opportunity to show their wares.
Some players just need that opportunity.
The question will be are100% fit players going to match the impact of the 75% fit players who have been taking the field in recent games.

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #62
I keep thinking where do we have an excess of players - and that's the midfield.?

B: Newman  Weitering  Cowan
HB: Kemp  McGovern Cincotta
C: Hollands   Hewett  Acres
HF: Williams   Lemmey   Carroll
F: Owies    Kennedy   Motlop
R: Pittonet  Cripps  Walsh
I: Young Binns Wilson Lord


I think you are one Holland short.......

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #63
Id have Hewett or Cincotta tagging Harley the wonder dog and be prepared to use Cripps more forward this game for two reasons , we will probably need more goals from our mids plus he will be heavily tagged by Yeo who has been in decent form and if he plays forward that will also take Yeo out of the play if he follows him.

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #64
When you look at it it's actually not a bad side we can cobble together.
It's well off our best but...
There's plenty of senior experience there, and the young ones have a golden opportunity to show their wares.
Some players just need that opportunity.
The question will be are100% fit players going to match the impact of the 75% fit players who have been taking the field in recent games.

If we were to be 100% accurate, i'd take 6 of that side out of there.
Cincotta, McGovern, Kennedy, Acres, Walsh and Weitering are definitely not 100%.
I suspect Cripps, Pittonet and Hewett are carrying niggles as well.

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #65
My team, and it is Tuesday so we have plenty of time to lose a few more players, is:
Kemp Weitering Cowan
Newman Young Cincotta
O.Hollands E.Hollands Acres
Motlop McGovern Owies
Lemmey Cripps Durdin
Pittonett Kennedy Hewitt
Carroll Williams Binns Walsh
With Lord Wilson Moir Mirkov as emergencies
I am not sure Fantasia will be right which leaves Akuei and Monahan to fly the flag in the VFL.
I like the idea of Cripps playing permanently forward. I would like him to play like a midfielder and run his opponent into the ground.

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #66
When you look at it it's actually not a bad side we can cobble together.
It's well off our best but...
There's plenty of senior experience there, and the young ones have a golden opportunity to show their wares.
Some players just need that opportunity.
The question will be are100% fit players going to match the impact of the 75% fit players who have been taking the field in recent games.
How about this side
FB Boyd Marchbank M Carroll
HB Saad S Durdin Docherty
C Martin Cerra ??
HF Cunningham McKay Fogarty
FF Fantasia Curnow Silvagni
R De Koning Cottrell ??
Int O'Keefe ?? ?? ??
Nearly a better side than we will put out this week vs WC.
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #67
Injured in the past 2 weeks: 4 fwds, 1 mid, 1 winger, and 2 hbs.

If we lacked connection and communication last week, as Weiters suggests, it's a mountain too high to rectify that with mass changes. Not to mention having players across every line that have never played together.

We've got mine and Buckley's.
WC by 40 (open to being wrong)
Coming together is the beginning.
Keeping together is progress.
Working together is success.
Henry Ford.

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #68
How about this side
FB Boyd Marchbank M Carroll
HB Saad S Durdin Docherty
C Martin Cerra ??
HF Cunningham McKay Fogarty
FF Fantasia Curnow Silvagni
R De Koning Cottrell ??
Int O'Keefe ?? ?? ??
Nearly a better side than we will put out this week vs WC.

Kruddler did one of these in another thread and added the blokes we suspect are playing injured.
It's even more dramatic.

Actually it was this thread....

FB: Docherty - S. Durdin - Boyd
HB:   Saad   - Marchbank - McGovern
C:   Cottrell -    Cerra -   Cuningham
HF: Fogarty - Silvagni - Martin
FF: C. Durdin - Curnow - Williams
R: De Koning - Kennedy - Cincotta
Int: Fantasia - M. Carroll - O'Keefe - Acres

and that was before we knew the McKay injury....and I'd whack Walsh in there as well.

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #69
My team, and it is Tuesday so we have plenty of time to lose a few more players, is:
Kemp Weitering Cowan
Newman Young Cincotta
O.Hollands E.Hollands Acres
Motlop McGovern Owies
Lemmey Cripps Durdin
Pittonett Kennedy Hewitt
Carroll Williams Binns Walsh
With Lord Wilson Moir Mirkov as emergencies
I am not sure Fantasia will be right which leaves Akuei and Monahan to fly the flag in the VFL.
I like the idea of Cripps playing permanently forward. I would like him to play like a midfielder and run his opponent into the ground.
Reckon Lord will play after that outstanding effort last week.

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #70
Here's your updated one Lods....

FB: Docherty - S. Durdin - Boyd
HB:   Saad   - Marchbank - McGovern
C:   Cottrell -    Cerra -   Cuningham
HF: Fogarty - Curnow - Martin
FF: C. Durdin - McKay - Williams
R: De Koning - Kennedy - Walsh
Int: Silvagni - Cincotta - Acres - Fantasia

If we manage to add in....
Cripps and Weitering thats just about our best 22 gone, or playing on one leg.


In fact, here was my best 22 from part 1 of 2024 pre-season
FB - Newman - Weitering - Docherty
HB - McGovern - Kemp - Saad
C  -    Acres  -  Cripps  -  Walsh
HF - Silvagni - Curnow - Martin
FF - Fantasia - McKay - Motlop
R - DeKoning - Hewitt - Cerra
Int - Cottrell - Cincotta - Cuningham - Williams

Only 7 of my best 22 are considered fit at the moment.   :o  ::)
....and that doesn't include Boyd who made his way into it.

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #71
Its making a mockery out of connection and cohesion. Player availability has been worse in the AFL since Round Zero.

Missed the opening game without Weitering, Silvagni, Walsh, E Hoillands, Martin, Cunningham, Marchbank etc etc  and then Doc got injured and never recovered since Round 1.

Its an opportunity missed as more than good enough to have won it this year but we are cursed...and needs to be uncursed so best available can build connection and cohesion.

Young players coming in will have good senior heads around them.

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #72
Salary caps are not that tight and don't work that way.

Any club worth their salt will aim for match payments for 23 players over 24 rounds (or whatever we actually play) and put that aside for every season. Whats left is what you play players from as in their base and above base payments.

You go a step further and allocate a certain part to any of the following you implement as a club (each club does it differently)
- Top (3, 5 or) 10 B+F finishers bonus
- Matches played threshold bonuses (kids get 10 - 15 - 20 bonuses IIRC, same for others potentially if you wish)
- individual KPI targets (eg # goals or goal assists etc)
- AFL award bonuses (AA, brownlow, coleman, 22U22 teams etc)

You set aside whatever 'bonuses' you want to pay. You add that to what you set aside with your match payments.
Then you pay players from whats left.

If you make finals, the AFL allows gives you the extra $'s required to pay players for their time.
If you win the GF there is an extra million to allocate IIRC as well.

In short, there is no financial incentive to NOT play the kids.

You need to fact check.

I've read the eba.  Players on base contracts usually qualify for match payments.

This is included in the cap, and depending on factors can see match payments worth as much as 5000 a match which can vary based on where a player was taken in the draft.

Now we play Ollie hollands a first rounder and lachie cowan a second rounder.

Between them in 2024 they have played 34 matches.  Hypotheticals state if they are on base contracts we pay 5000 per match, we have blown out our payments by a conservative 150k.  Not much as you stated, but depending on whom else is on base contracts you might have jack Carroll, jaxon binns, and jesse motlop earning match payments over and above their base contract.  Jordan boyd might be another and this can escalate quickly and cost a total of over 200k over a season.  Not earth shattering in a 14 million dollar cap, but it could cause some headaches in a situation where you are paying above the cap after banking in previous years if you've cooked your salary structure and were banking on making finals to get your extra million.



"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #73
You need to fact check.

I've read the eba.  Players on base contracts usually qualify for match payments.

This is included in the cap, and depending on factors can see match payments worth as much as 5000 a match which can vary based on where a player was taken in the draft.

Now we play Ollie hollands a first rounder and lachie cowan a second rounder.

Between them in 2024 they have played 34 matches.  Hypotheticals state if they are on base contracts we pay 5000 per match, we have blown out our payments by a conservative 150k.  Not much as you stated, but depending on whom else is on base contracts you might have jack Carroll, jaxon binns, and jesse motlop earning match payments over and above their base contract.  Jordan boyd might be another and this can escalate quickly and cost a total of over 200k over a season.  Not earth shattering in a 14 million dollar cap, but it could cause some headaches in a situation where you are paying above the cap after banking in previous years if you've cooked your salary structure and were banking on making finals to get your extra million.

I've read the CBAs.

You are not understanding what i wrote.

ASSUME you are paying match payments for all 23 players that are playing.
ASSUME you are paying match payments for all 23 players, for every round.
Call it 5k each.

5k x 23 (players) x 22 (matches) = 2.53mil.

Your TPP for 2024 is $15,788,222
So, deduct 1 from the other and you have 13.26mil remaining.

Use that 13.26mil as your starting point to make player payments.

Now, in case you missed this part earlier as well, use that 13.26mil as a starting point and deduct any expected bonuses to be made.
Lets say 1.26mil of bonuses. (excessive, but it doesn't matter for this example.

You are left with 12mil.

Use that to work out your base contracts for all players.
Works out to average of 273k per player (44 players)

Now for kids, they have an agreed base to start with, so use that.
They also get match payments as part of their contract....so thats where they will earn more (BUT we already factored that in before)
For seniors, obviously they want more. So give them more.

At the end of the day, everyones base payments are covered.
Everyones bonuses are covered.
All the kids on match payments are covered.
What you have 'left over' is the 'match payments' that were not divied out to the senior players as they don't receive them. So whatever is left over in this, you spread amongst the senior players.

So if you started with 2.53mil of match payments allowed and your 15 kids on match payments clocked up 1mil, the remaining 1.53 mil you give back to the senior players on a sliding scale. Cripps gets a higher % than Fantasia.
OR
If you are lucky enough, you keep that and bank it for next year and spend it on recruiting players or signing bonuses etc.
or
You use that money to front load players to bank money the following year. eg, pay cripps 100k of 2025 money, in 2024. etc.


What you are saying is you max out the cap and have no room for unexpected match payments to kids. Which is not the way you do things.
Work backwards from worst case so that can't happen.

Re: AFL Rd 23 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs West Coast in Perth

Reply #74
I've read the CBAs.

You are not understanding what i wrote.

ASSUME you are paying match payments for all 23 players that are playing.
ASSUME you are paying match payments for all 23 players, for every round.
Call it 5k each.

5k x 23 (players) x 22 (matches) = 2.53mil.

Your TPP for 2024 is $15,788,222
So, deduct 1 from the other and you have 13.26mil remaining.

Use that 13.26mil as your starting point to make player payments.

Now, in case you missed this part earlier as well, use that 13.26mil as a starting point and deduct any expected bonuses to be made.
Lets say 1.26mil of bonuses. (excessive, but it doesn't matter for this example.

You are left with 12mil.

Use that to work out your base contracts for all players.
Works out to average of 273k per player (44 players)

Now for kids, they have an agreed base to start with, so use that.
They also get match payments as part of their contract....so thats where they will earn more (BUT we already factored that in before)
For seniors, obviously they want more. So give them more.

At the end of the day, everyones base payments are covered.
Everyones bonuses are covered.
All the kids on match payments are covered.
What you have 'left over' is the 'match payments' that were not divied out to the senior players as they don't receive them. So whatever is left over in this, you spread amongst the senior players.

So if you started with 2.53mil of match payments allowed and your 15 kids on match payments clocked up 1mil, the remaining 1.53 mil you give back to the senior players on a sliding scale. Cripps gets a higher % than Fantasia.
OR
If you are lucky enough, you keep that and bank it for next year and spend it on recruiting players or signing bonuses etc.
or
You use that money to front load players to bank money the following year. eg, pay cripps 100k of 2025 money, in 2024. etc.


What you are saying is you max out the cap and have no room for unexpected match payments to kids. Which is not the way you do things.
Work backwards from worst case so that can't happen.

I read what you wrote.

You're assuming what the club should be doing but it doesn't mean that's what's happening, particularly if we're trying to balance the books.

Not all players will be on bonuses so your example doesn't quite fit.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson