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Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #255 –
Inside 50 stats....

Q1.
8-16 Lions

Q2
16-12 blues

1st half
24-28 Lions

Q3
19-11 blues

Q4
13-15 lions

2nd half
32-26 blues

Total
56-56

'Shots at goal accuracy' (should be i50 conversion)
20 / 56 = 35.7% blues
33 / 56 = 58.9% lions


All stats from afl app

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #256 –
Inside 50s mean nothing if the ball comes back out faster than it went in.......

Our biggest weakness is getting caught on the slingshot, and it happens more times than I care to remember.

The level of F50 pressure is pathetic - only Fogarty and sometimes Owies actually give anything in this area.  The rest trot around and admire the opposition defenders' rebounding skills.  The defensive unit must be pulling their hair out when they see that.
This is now the longest premiership drought in the history of the Carlton Football Club - more evidence of climate change?

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #257 –
Quote from: tonyo – on
Inside 50s mean nothing if the ball comes back out faster than it went in.......

Our biggest weakness is getting caught on the slingshot, and it happens more times than I care to remember.

The level of F50 pressure is pathetic - only Fogarty and sometimes Owies actually give anything in this area.  The rest trot around and admire the opposition defenders' rebounding skills.  The defensive unit must be pulling their hair out when they see that.

That’s all well and good but if you’re a forward and the ball is delivered NOT to your advantage but to your DISADVANTAGE then you are out of position and cannot impact the contest…
That’s why intercept marks hurt so much
Let’s go BIG !

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #258 –
Quote from: tonyo – on
Inside 50s mean nothing if the ball comes back out faster than it went in.......

Yep
To reference my old mate Alex in a "Clockwork Orange"...

It's the old "in-out" we have no time for. :)  :D

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #259 –
Quote from: northernblue – on
That’s all well and good but if you’re a forward and the ball is delivered NOT to your advantage but to your DISADVANTAGE then you are out of position and cannot impact the contest…
That’s why intercept marks hurt so much
I would agree with that, but watch how hard most of our forwards chase - most barely get out of a trot.  No wonder the opposition can set up such great D50 rebounds - they have plenty of time and space to work out their next move.
This is now the longest premiership drought in the history of the Carlton Football Club - more evidence of climate change?

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #260 –
Club was in a hard place.  With so many out with injury in the last few weeks, and beating 16th, losing to 12th, to win they needed to take a chance on a few that were coming back and not 100% right to go.  A stable balanced team with the best players available is the best scenario, which we didn't have the luxury of.  Getting the balance right with what we had was tricky.

Thankfully BL took their foot off the pedal, so there was some respectability in the score.  Disappointing that we were so bad in the first half, but good that we didn't lie down for the whole game.

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #261 –
Quote from: tonyo – on
All I know is, there may be plenty of excuses, but we have to find an answer for those excuses......

Get tough and do it!   FFS, if McGovern kicked the goal after the siren and we'd held on against the Saints, we would have been playing Port Adelaide in the Qualifying final.

We need to find the ruthless edge again - for me, we play too nice......

Amen to that !!
"The Other Teams Can Rot In Hell"

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #262 –
Quote from: LP – on
I50 is a deceptive stat, it can mean barely a step inside the arc on the boundary line or in the corridor at the top of the goalsquare.

A lot of the Champion Data stats are flimsy at best, fluffy at worst.

When you read the definition of a particular stat, they are contrived at best and have to many variables to be a relaistic tool of value.
"The Other Teams Can Rot In Hell"

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #263 –
Finally got through the replay. Took me three attempts. It was pretty ugly viewing. Just a few observations.
1. Cincotta should have played. We were one defender short and Cowan struggled. I think Cowan would have been better if he was the seventh defender. Another pre-season will see him improve.
2. Absolutely no run and carry in the first quarter and twenty minutes. When Carlton is struggling we go into our shells and we don't take on the game. Handball receives should be a kpi next season.
3. Not sure why everyone has been down on O.Hollands. He was serviceable in the first half and he shut down Zorko in the second. wasn't great but he was okay.
4. TDK should have started.
5. Initially I thought Cerra should not have played as I think he disrupted the midfield. However he did get better as the game went on. He needs to define role for himself.
6. William should not have played and Carrol should have been the sub.
7. Pittonet took a couple of marks and it makes him a better player. Needs to develop his marking.
8. If Carlton players are upset by the sledging and the trash talking of opposition players then don't be five goals down. If you are five goals up you won't hear a word from these clowns.
9. Hopefully with a new fitness guru we might be able to get a bit of continuity with the team.
10. Binns, Lord, Wilson, Lemmey and Moir all need to be given plenty of opportunities next year.
11. Docherty is a marvel.

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #264 –
Quote from: Blue Moon – on
Finally got through the replay. Took me three attempts. It was pretty ugly viewing. Just a few observations.
1. Cincotta should have played. We were one defender short and Cowan struggled. I think Cowan would have been better if he was the seventh defender. Another pre-season will see him improve.
2. Absolutely no run and carry in the first quarter and twenty minutes. When Carlton is struggling we go into our shells and we don't take on the game. Handball receives should be a kpi next season.
3. Not sure why everyone has been down on O.Hollands. He was serviceable in the first half and he shut down Zorko in the second. wasn't great but he was okay.
4. TDK should have started.
5. Initially I thought Cerra should not have played as I think he disrupted the midfield. However he did get better as the game went on. He needs to define role for himself.
6. William should not have played and Carrol should have been the sub.
7. Pittonet took a couple of marks and it makes him a better player. Needs to develop his marking.
8. If Carlton players are upset by the sledging and the trash talking of opposition players then don't be five goals down. If you are five goals up you won't hear a word from these clowns.
9. Hopefully with a new fitness guru we might be able to get a bit of continuity with the team.
10. Binns, Lord, Wilson, Lemmey and Moir all need to be given plenty of opportunities next year.
11. Docherty is a marvel.

How do you arrive at one defender short?  Our defensive rotation was Weitering, Young, McGovern, Cowan, Newman, Docherty and Saad and I'm sure Williams also spent time in defence.  I do think that Cincotta should have played, but in place of Kennedy who had no energy and hardly got out of a jog ... but that's with the benefit of hindsight.

That goes for De Koning too.  The club was concerned that he couldn't run out the game and that proved to be too conservative.  He would have had a crack from the opening bounce and that could have made a difference.

Docherty is a marvel but he was as rusty as all get out and probably shouldn't have played.  Again, Cincotta would have been a better bet.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #265 –
Quote from: DJC – on
That goes for De Koning too.  The club was concerned that he couldn't run out the game and that proved to be too conservative. 
Not really, we don't know if they were right or wrong because, TDK only came on after 40 minutes and still only played 50% of game time in total. So after the first 40 minutes on the bench, he spent about another 20 minutes on the bench during the rest of the game.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"
 

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #266 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Inside 50's ended up even 56-56
Don't go back and torture yourself again :D  but

An interesting one or two from that 60-0 time would be ...
How many times in that period the ball entering our 50 was marked by a Brisbane player.
How many times first contact from our inside 50 was a Brisbane player who then saw it out of the 50

Here are my notes from the I50 I counted (by I50 I mean every time the ball cross the 50m line in our fwd half)
Q1   I50   Pitto spilled mark
Q1   I50   Kemp kick in to Big O who Int marks
Q1   I50   Cripps kick in to Big O who Int marks
Q1   I50   Acres kicks a grubber, TO straigh back out. First I50 in 8 min
Q1   I50   Kennedy kick in, H drops the mark,  Williams gathers from Cripps, snaps across the face OOB
Q1   I50   Cripps kicks in,  gathered and cleared by Bris def
Q1   I50   Hewett kicks in, Motlop fumbles, Wiliams to H who is  tackled drops ball, Bris clear
Q1   I50   Acres kicks in, Andrews intercepts and 50m pen
   Qtr time   0.0.0
Q2   I50   Gov kicks in, Hewett gathers snaps short intercepted
Q2   I50   Acres to H, drops the mark, Kemp gathers
Q2   I50   Hewett I50 Walsh, H and Kennedy get in each others way, Kennedy marks gives to H who snaps ootf misses by 20m
Q2   I50   Hew I50 kemp gathers snaps acrros the face  ootf
Q2   I50   Cowan kicks in, 35 for Bris interecpts ( H out pointed)
Q2   I50   Acres from a passageof play  I50, kicks over the head of Williams and goes OOB.Throw in, Pitto fumbes Bris take it away
Q2   I50   Lij I50 from a stoppage,  H flies drops the mark, Zorko gathers and clears to Bris player
Q2   I50   Acres from a free for a trip I50, punched down to ground, Bris gathers and clears
Q2   I50   From a Cent Clear, Doc gathers, kicks I50 looking for Durdin, Z\orko intercepts
Q2   I50   Cerra i50 from the stoppage, Fantasia runs on, Zorko clears out
Q2   I50   Cripps free kick on the wing, kicks I50, comes straight out again
Q2   I50   Williams kicks i50 to 2 Bris defenders, ball spills, Durdin gathers, gives to Cripps for a goal
    3m51s to go in the 2nd qtr   1.0.6
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #267 –
Quote from: tonyo – on
Inside 50s mean nothing if the ball comes back out faster than it went in.......

Our biggest weakness is getting caught on the slingshot, and it happens more times than I care to remember.

The level of F50 pressure is pathetic - only Fogarty and sometimes Owies actually give anything in this area.  The rest trot around and admire the opposition defenders' rebounding skills.  The defensive unit must be pulling their hair out when they see that.

I was just provided stats, not giving an opinion.

FWIW, i think it highlights a couple things i've mentioned previously.

No point playing 4 small forwards if they cannot take advantage of the ball coming inside 50.
If the ball coming inside 50 is the problem, then either the small forwards are not leading correctly or the mids delivering it are the problem.
Either way, the result seems to be, forget about the forwards and get in better mids, that is, bring more mids into your team.
So ditch a couple small forwards, bring in players who will deliver it better or players that will give you more time to deliver.

Any way you slice it, too many small forwards and more (and better) mids is the answer and exactly what i wanted from our 23.

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #268 –
Quote from: DJC – on
How do you arrive at one defender short?  Our defensive rotation was Weitering, Young, McGovern, Cowan, Newman, Docherty and Saad and I'm sure Williams also spent time in defence.  I do think that Cincotta should have played, but in place of Kennedy who had no energy and hardly got out of a jog ... but that's with the benefit of hindsight.

That goes for De Koning too.  The club was concerned that he couldn't run out the game and that proved to be too conservative.  He would have had a crack from the opening bounce and that could have made a difference.

Docherty is a marvel but he was as rusty as all get out and probably shouldn't have played.  Again, Cincotta would have been a better bet.
Docherty is a midfielder and Williams plays as a forward. They actually used O.Hollands down back

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #269 –
Quote from: Blue Moon – on
Docherty is a midfielder and Williams plays as a forward. They actually used O.Hollands down back

We used a forward down back most of the game.
Elijah Hollands had a go there as well.