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Syria

The murderous regime of Bashar al-Assad has come to an end and the tyrant has flown to exile in Russia.  The question is whether what follows Assad will be better or worse.

Of course, the Americans and Israelis took the opportunity to bomb the crepe out of ISIS and munitions plants.

It is a huge setback for Putin with Russia losing its foothold and influence in the Middle East.

It is also another blow to the reputation of the Russian military.  In the absence of instructions from Moscow, the various units chose to do nothing and all bases are now cut off.  Showing initiative isn’t a thing in the Russian armed forces.

Expatriate Syrians here are overjoyed but I suspect that there will be a lot of hardship and unrest to come.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: Syria

Reply #1 –
It'll probably now be the case that several groups involved in the overthrow will have a battle amongst themselves for supremacy.
The chances of a tolerant, democratic government would have to be very little low.

Sometimes it just might be better the Devil than than the devils you don't really have a handle on.
One of the groups involved is apparently Kurdish...and what that means for relations with Turkiye will be interesting.

Re: Syria

Reply #2 –
I'm not u happy seeing the back of the Assad regime, but my thoughts lead to what comes next? Successor regimes to those regimes toppled by violence often end up being very similar to the regimes they've just toppled.

I was happy to see the back of the Sadaam Hussain, but what has followed in Iraq is unstable and fractious. I'm not sure life there is any better now than it was then.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: Syria

Reply #3 –
I am very fearful for the future of the Syrian people who now have to face life under HTS, an Al Qaida derived jihadist group.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: Syria

Reply #4 –
Most countries that had an Arab Spring are still suffering from an extended Arab Winter ...
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: Syria

Reply #5 –
 If any country ever needed a UN mandate/protectorate to get back on its feet, Syria would be it.
DrE is no more... you ok with that harmonica man?

Re: Syria

Reply #6 –
Id be careful about celebrating too much here.

How we view the regime is secondary to it being toppled IMHO.  Its great for the Syrian people, but a power vaccuum on the back of what has been happening geo politically just leads to an additional theatre of war, and more people getting involved. 

I expect this region to blow up significantly now.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Syria

Reply #7 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
I expect this region to blow up significantly now.
The crooks are already there just waiting for the opportunity, it might take some time but things won't get better if the criminals aren't suppressed. Look at Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan, Egypt, those regions are being over-run with opportunistic gangsters, some of them funded by foreign actors.

International forces are now hobbled by do-gooders, completely toothless, in the past the international forces could go in as a peacekeeping / police action to keep the criminals at bay, but the global left has made that job impossible.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Syria

Reply #8 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Id be careful about celebrating too much here.

How we view the regime is secondary to it being toppled IMHO.  Its great for the Syrian people, but a power vaccuum on the back of what has been happening geo politically just leads to an additional theatre of war, and more people getting involved. 

I expect this region to blow up significantly now.

Syria has been a theatre of war involving the USA, Russia, Türkiye, Iran, Israel and various opposition groups, some of whom are declared terrorist organisations, since the Arab Spring began over a decade ago.  There has been a power vacuum there since Assad had to focus his military and resources, and those of his allies, on his opposition.

The positive from Assad's demise is that some of the antagonists will no longer have a role.  The negative, apart from Assad flying off with $2B, is the likelihood of a chaotic Arab Winter in Syria for many years to come.

The West - Britain and France in particular - did a great job of carving up the Middle East into nations with no coherent, shared culture or purpose and that have been held together by dictators and ruling elites.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: Syria

Reply #9 –
Quote from: DJC – on
The West - Britain and France in particular - did a great job of carving up the Middle East into nations with no coherent, shared culture or purpose and that have been held together by dictators and ruling elites.
I doubt the West made much difference.

In my experience the cultural tension in that region is endemic, it has been for much of recorded history and long before Britain or France ever got involved. However, I would agree we can probably blame Britain and France for leveraging those differences for gain.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Syria

Reply #10 –
Quote from: LP – on
Quote from: Thryleon – on
I expect this region to blow up significantly now.
The crooks are already there just waiting for the opportunity, it might take some time but things won't get better if the criminals aren't suppressed. Look at Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan, Egypt, those regions are being over-run with opportunistic gangsters, some of them funded by foreign actors.

International forces are now hobbled by do-gooders, completely toothless, in the past the international forces could go in as a peacekeeping / police action to keep the criminals at bay, but the global left has made that job impossible.

But I thought that you were of the loony left LP 🤣

With very few exceptions, peacekeeping operations, whether under UN auspices or not, have relied on the goodwill and tolerance of the protagonists rather than the might of the peacekeepers. And that’s regardless of the colour of governments.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: Syria

Reply #11 –
Quote from: LP – on
Quote from: DJC – on
The West - Britain and France in particular - did a great job of carving up the Middle East into nations with no coherent, shared culture or purpose and that have been held together by dictators and ruling elites.
I doubt the West made much difference.

In my experience the cultural tension in that region is endemic, it has been for much of recorded history and long before Britain or France ever got involved. However, I would agree we can probably blame Britain and France for leveraging those differences for gain.

Who drew the national boundaries and anointed the ruling families after WW1, established Israel after WW2, and invaded Egypt after Nasser nationalised the Suez Canal?

You need to watch Lawrence of Arabia again 🙂
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: Syria

Reply #12 –
Regardless of the commercial divisions, the tribal factions in that region have existed long before the British or French passed through the region.

I'm not denying that colonialists had an influence, but implying they are the authors is a step too far, murder and corruption existed long before Britain or France.

Maybe go a bit further back than the Hollywood history of the Middle East, perhaps ask Lord Byron?

PS: I studied the regions history off the back of Pam's tattoo, or was it off Pam's back tattoo! ;)
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Syria

Reply #13 –
Wait, I'm confused.  The generational Arab spring brought in the nepotism that results in the ruling class and the subsequent Arab spring had nothing to do with the west and the west deposed it even though they were responsible for dividing up Arabia and deposing the Arab council?

In fairness none of us really know a lot about its history because of ottoman rule, but when push comes to shove, the west involved itself for its own interests and still does so today.  This isn't a good will mission to free the people.  No one goes to war simply as a good Samaritan and it's more cold war crap and not much else.

This time of year all you get is sold a bunch of crap. Islamic state, Libya, Afghanistan.  The motivation behind all of it is a bit of a mystery but it smells to me like ensuring your opposition in the region doesn't gather enough power to challenge you and not much else and the major cost is born by the citizens that live there or at least used to.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Syria

Reply #14 –
Quote from: LP – on
Regardless of the commercial divisions, the tribal factions in that region have existed long before the British or French passed through the region.

I'm not denying that colonialists had an influence, but implying they are the authors is a step too far, murder and corruption existed long before Britain or France.

Maybe go a bit further back than the Hollywood history of the Middle East, perhaps ask Lord Byron?

PS: I studied the regions history off the back of Pam's tattoo, or was it off Pam's back tattoo! ;)

The tribalism and religious, ethnic and cultural diversity of the Middle East are key factors that were ignored by the French and British when they divided up the Ottoman Caliphate.

Similarly, the creation of Israel ignored centuries of coexistence of Arabs, Christians and Jews in Palestine.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!