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Topic: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs (Read 15837 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #30
We are 2 games in.  We don't look fit.

No point comparing to other teams.  We finished the year with broken down players, we had more break down over the summer, and we have a few returning who've not played footy in a while.

It's no surprise we don't look great, but lets see how we are travelling in about 6 weeks.

Cerras in good nick.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #31
We are 2 games in.  We don't look fit.
So by this time after a few losses Russell is normally getting stones thrown at him, does anybody even know the guys name that took his place, the new guy appears so private I'm wondering if that job even still exists?

I reiterate though, the bulk of the AFL have changed tactics, they have made huge tactical changes and we've gone incremental, we've missed the trending shift in the game that was obvious from opening round. If we can't find our game style and make it work we are in for a world of pain, because the opposition aren't changing to suit us.

I think we look stuffed because we have guys who aren't capable to catching opponents still running themselves into the ground refusing to give up. Our lot is giving 100% but the tank is empty, the MC has to find a way to change the narrative. It is pointless fans throwing allegations at players who just don't have the skill set(pace and acceleration) to compete on those foreign terms.

We are lucky we have Cripps, because in his size category his acceleration is elite, TDK is similar, but opposition are finding ways to negate those two, or we do it to ourselves when we ruck Cripps, and those around them aren't capable of bridging the gap. We won plenty of inside footy in the first two games, only to give it back after a chain of two or three disposals, which then leaves our slower Mids stuck out of the position on the transition.

The only way I can see forward is a drastic efficiency improvement, we've got to use the ball better than the opposition, if we are less efficient we are cooked because we won't generate the same high opportunity count.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #32
We are 2 games in.  We don't look fit.
So by this time after a few losses Russell is normally getting stones thrown at him, does anybody even know the guys name that took his place, the new guy appears so private I'm wondering if that job even still exists?

I reiterate though, the bulk of the AFL have changed tactics, they have made huge tactical changes and we've gone incremental, we've missed the trending shift in the game that was obvious from opening round. If we can't find our game style and make it work we are in for a world of pain, because the opposition aren't changing to suit us.

I think we look stuffed because we have guys who aren't capable to catching opponents still running themselves into the ground refusing to give up. Our lot is giving 100% but the tank is empty, the MC has to find a way to change the narrative. It is pointless fans throwing allegations at players who just don't have the skill set(pace and acceleration) to compete on those foreign terms.

We are lucky we have Cripps, because in his size category his acceleration is elite, TDK is similar, but opposition are finding ways to negate those two, or we do it to ourselves when we ruck Cripps, and those around them aren't capable of bridging the gap. We won plenty of inside footy in the first two games, only to give it back after a chain of two or three disposals, which then leaves our slower Mids stuck out of the position on the transition.

The only way I can see forward is a drastic efficiency improvement, we've got to use the ball better than the opposition, if we are less efficient we are cooked because we won't generate the same high opportunity count.
the thing with fitness is, that any break or change in your approach will yield different results.

We've been behind the fitness 8 ball every pre season since I can remember. 

We had 5 players go the distance last season.  Its no surprise to me with 2 of them gone we aren't better off right now.  No fitness like match fitness. 

We aren't the only ones just going, but anyone who's shocked doesn't understand that a set back in one year will impact you for a while depending on how large.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #33

So by this time after a few losses Russell is normally getting stones thrown at him, does anybody even know the guys name that took his place, the new guy appears so private I'm wondering if that job even still exists?

Rob Innes
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #34

So by this time after a few losses Russell is normally getting stones thrown at him, does anybody even know the guys name that took his place, the new guy appears so private I'm wondering if that job even still exists?

Rob Innes

And he’s not an in your face, self-promoting cove like Russell.  Not that there’s anything wrong with that; Russell has many irons in the fire and it served him well to be in the limelight as much as possible.

Innes is our fitness bloke first and foremost and doesn’t need to engage in self-promotion.

I don’t mind if we don’t hear a peep out of him all season, provided that most of our players are available for selection.

Inness kept a fairly low profile at Sydney too.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #35
I'm not convinced that our first 2 losses have much to do with a failure to embrace the latest fad, whatever that might be. Some better, cleaner disposal, and some luck with injury, I'd guess the team will do well.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #36
Having just watched the Dawks game again - our defensive game was sound, we held them to a potentially losing score. And our pressure certainly 'panicked' them plenty of times. However...

...our offensive game was simply, I'll be kind, perplexing. So many times we were running through the wings or through the middle, aggott in hand, and not give off to a team mate running free nearby in a better position to receive a handball, grab more grass and then better target forwards on a lead or in a one-on-one contest, but rather a long bomb from the wing/middle! Just not smart or productive... inefficient! Inefficiency results in loss of reward for effort - stagnant scoreboard, so then fall back to a greater reliance on defence (safety mode) / loss of offensive confidence...

Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with fitness, endurance or attitude. Just reward for offensive effort. The backline defence and team defence looks good, we're keeping opponents to potentially losing scores.

My greatest concern against the Dishlickers is that we repeat the offensive errors of the first two rounds - not sharing the ball with runners nearby offering a good option to gain more grass AND those panicky long bombs into the forward line. With H and Charles probably up the front the temptation to drop it on their heads will be there. H and Charles, please move about a lot forcing those up the field to consider their kick, not bomb.

IF we deliver into the forward line properly and we get our offensive reward for effort ticking over (scoreboard), and that offensive confidence returns I would not be at all surprised if we knock over the Dishlickers by 44+.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #37
Yep
I still think it all comes down to efficiency.
We wouldn't look tired if the disposal was better.
We look tired because we're constantly chasing our tails.
What is an attack suddenly turns into a turn around, run and chase because of a turnover.
Hit those targets and it will be the opposition doing the chasing.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #38
Yep
I still think it all comes down to efficiency inefficiency.
We wouldn't look tired if the disposal was better.
We look tired because we're constantly chasing our tails.
What is an attack suddenly turns into a turn around, run and chase because of a turnover.
Hit those targets and it will be the opposition doing the chasing.
Agreed, it's 100% the case.

The assertions about looking tired or lacking fitness seem to be based on having cause and effect backwards.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #39
Having just watched the Dawks game again - our defensive game was sound, we held them to a potentially losing score. And our pressure certainly 'panicked' them plenty of times. However...

...our offensive game was simply, I'll be kind, perplexing. So many times we were running through the wings or through the middle, aggott in hand, and not give off to a team mate running free nearby in a better position to receive a handball, grab more grass and then better target forwards on a lead or in a one-on-one contest, but rather a long bomb from the wing/middle! Just not smart or productive... inefficient! Inefficiency results in loss of reward for effort - stagnant scoreboard, so then fall back to a greater reliance on defence (safety mode) / loss of offensive confidence...

Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with fitness, endurance or attitude. Just reward for offensive effort. The backline defence and team defence looks good, we're keeping opponents to potentially losing scores.

My greatest concern against the Dishlickers is that we repeat the offensive errors of the first two rounds - not sharing the ball with runners nearby offering a good option to gain more grass AND those panicky long bombs into the forward line. With H and Charles probably up the front the temptation to drop it on their heads will be there. H and Charles, please move about a lot forcing those up the field to consider their kick, not bomb.

IF we deliver into the forward line properly and we get our offensive reward for effort ticking over (scoreboard), and that offensive confidence returns I would not be at all surprised if we knock over the Dishlickers by 44+.

If the Aints can spot up their leading forwards regularly then I'm sure we can.
It's not rocket science and we all have been banging on about this for years.
When we have done it we look good, really good.
2025... Moir of the same to come

Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #40
...our offensive game was simply, I'll be kind, perplexing.
I've watched quite a few F50 stoppages, and we have the likes of Harry and Charlie roving to deep F50 stoppages or standing in the goal square. I understand Cripps there, for the obvious reason it's a stoppage.

But the others, I can't work out why on earth the two Coleman medallist contested marking 50m kicking machines aren't out patrolling the 50M arc to intercept the quick rushed defensive kick, or at least make it far less likely to allow a clean successful exit. I suppose it's due to our lack of leg speed, so we setup our best runners on the defensive side and hope that Weiters or McGovern can take a mark, but when we do that it's much easier for the opposition to reach the wing by running away from the big bodies inside the arc.

In the F50 stoppages, leave the big bodied roving to TDK and Cripps to dish out to surrounding smalls who can also double up with pressure actors when defenders try to exit. Get Harry and Charlie out on the flank to contest with Weiters free to control the corridor.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #41
Having just watched the Dawks game again - our defensive game was sound, we held them to a potentially losing score. And our pressure certainly 'panicked' them plenty of times. However...

...our offensive game was simply, I'll be kind, perplexing. So many times we were running through the wings or through the middle, aggott in hand, and not give off to a team mate running free nearby in a better position to receive a handball, grab more grass and then better target forwards on a lead or in a one-on-one contest, but rather a long bomb from the wing/middle! Just not smart or productive... inefficient! Inefficiency results in loss of reward for effort - stagnant scoreboard, so then fall back to a greater reliance on defence (safety mode) / loss of offensive confidence...

Personally, I don't think it has anything to do with fitness, endurance or attitude. Just reward for offensive effort. The backline defence and team defence looks good, we're keeping opponents to potentially losing scores.

My greatest concern against the Dishlickers is that we repeat the offensive errors of the first two rounds - not sharing the ball with runners nearby offering a good option to gain more grass AND those panicky long bombs into the forward line. With H and Charles probably up the front the temptation to drop it on their heads will be there. H and Charles, please move about a lot forcing those up the field to consider their kick, not bomb.

IF we deliver into the forward line properly and we get our offensive reward for effort ticking over (scoreboard), and that offensive confidence returns I would not be at all surprised if we knock over the Dishlickers by 44+.

offensive confidence - i reckon this is a big part of it.  lose some confidence, stop being as aggressive with ball movement, everything gets harder

Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #42
https://www.msn.com/en-au/sport/afl/the-stats-that-matter-for-your-afl-team-in-round-3/ar-AA1BE36Y?ocid=msedgntp&pc=ASTS&cvid=47f76397b3884ebd8eebabf47d6ecb68&ei=21
Quote
Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Scores per inside 50 entry
It's now well analysed that the Blues have been wasting their inside 50 entries by bombing them high and long instead of lowering the eyes for an uncontested option.

The stats reflect this analysis, with Carlton's current rate of scoring per inside 50 entry the second-worst in the AFL, scoring from just 37 per cent of entries.

Last year, the Blues were a top-four side in the metric, with a scoring rate of 47.3 per cent. So, the aspect is fixable, but it requires immediate attention if Carlton are to beat the Bulldogs on Friday night.

The Bulldogs are one of the better sides at converting from inside 50 entries. This season their average is a rate of 48 per cent, while last year it ranked fifth at 46.2 per cent.

Should the Dogs continue this trend against a struggling Carlton unit, the Blues may be handed a third straight loss to begin 2025.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #43
Not sure what is going on with Harry.
That seemed a bit of a strange one with the illness last week and now he's still not certain to be available.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #44
That seemed a bit of a strange one with the illness last week and now he's still not certain to be available.
The twins are both struggling, it could be a Gawn moment for them, we might never know.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"