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Poll

If an election were to be held on the 3rd May (likely) which party would recieve your vote.

Labor
[ 12 ] (48%)
LNP
[ 8 ] (32%)
Greens
[ 0 ] (0%)
Teal Independent
[ 1 ] (4%)
One Nation
[ 0 ] (0%)
Trumpet of Patriots
[ 1 ] (4%)
Local Independent
[ 3 ] (12%)
None of the Above
[ 0 ] (0%)

Total Members Voted: 25

Topic: Election 2025 (Poll added) (Read 44898 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: Election 2025 (Poll added)

Reply #195 –
Quote from: dodge – on
Quote from: Lods – on
Had it been first past the post in this election the results would have been pretty much the same as it has actually turned out.
Labor would still have an absolute majority but a couple fewer seats.
Libs would have a few more.
Greens would have one and the independents (Teals Katter etc) around 7 or 8.

Not a lot of difference but a much simpler and more quickly declared poll

Thanks Lods - I should be working, but these trigger me, so I need to have a look... :))

In Vic, if it was first past the post, there would be 5 less ALP seats and 1 less Independent.  These are replaced by first past the post - 5 LNP and 1 Greens.  Give me a couple of days, and I am sure that I will need a distraction/procrastination tool to look at the other states!  There was only one seat in Vic where first past the post got >50% of the vote.

Don't worry too much dodge. I had a spare hour or two earlier on ;D  ;D
First past the post (subject to a recount)

ALP 86
LNP 56
Ind Katter Teal etc 7
Greens 1

On the downside (for some),both Dutton and Bandt would have been re-elected :D  :D

Re: Election 2025 (Poll added)

Reply #196 –
Thanks Lods.  Distraction dealt with.  Now if you could do my sons footy and my tennis, that would be great!

Mine have a couple of oddities, particularly where a lib and nat ran in the same seat.

Interesting that in SA there were cousins that ran against each other.

Re: Election 2025 (Poll added)

Reply #197 –
Good to see the Nationals getting rid of the 'dead' wood :D  :D

Re: Election 2025 (Poll added)

Reply #198 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Good to see the Nationals getting rid of the 'dead' wood :D  :D

One question that sprang to mind when I saw that David Littleproud had pulled the Nationals out of the coalition was whether Susssan Ley would have enough folk to cover all of the shadow ministries 🤔

Littleproud wants to persist with policies that proved to be unpopular with the electors and Ley would have been committing her party to many years in the doldrums if she had backed down.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: Election 2025 (Poll added)

Reply #199 –
It's hard to know how the long term effects of this will play out.
It will present both parties with a number of logistical and funding issues.
There will be problems in those states where the parties run as a combined group. How will that break up.

It may be that the Nats look to recapture some of the vote that went to parties like One Nation and the Trumpets by embracing some policies advocated by those groups.
It also allows the Liberal party to move more towards the middle ground.
The problem is with one going right and the other left....
How far will the gap widen between both.
It goes without saying that if after the next election Libs and Nats together hold a majority there will be a return to a coalition.
But it might be a messy one.
 

Re: Election 2025 (Poll added)

Reply #200 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Had it been first past the post in this election the results would have been pretty much the same as it has actually turned out.
Labor would still have an absolute majority but a couple fewer seats.
Libs would have a few more.
Greens would have one and the independents (Teals Katter etc) around 7 or 8.

Not a lot of difference but a much simpler and more quickly declared poll


One thing.the Preferential System does in each seat is provide an actual majority. You can vote for your Party, send a message, and still vote for which major Party you prefer. You feel your vote isn't wasted. First Past the Post would just wreck minor Parties. No good measuring who would have won under that System as a high majority would vote differently. No one likes to see their vote wasted.

Re: Election 2025 (Poll added)

Reply #201 –
Gisele Kapterian, presumptive Member for Bradfield, attended the Liberal Party room and voted for Sussan Ley.  Ley was subsequently elected leader with 29 votes to Angus Taylor's 25.  Teal Independent, Nicolette Boele, has now been declared the provisional winner of  Bradfield with a margin of 40 votes.  There's a recount to go through and a possible court challenge but it's evident that Kapterian shouldn't have voted in the leadership ballot.

On the other side of the coin, Angus Taylor supporter, Terry Young, did not vote because his seat of Longman was in doubt.  It's now clear that Young has retained his seat and that would make the leadership ballot 28-26.  Then there's the three retiring Liberal Senators who voted for Ley but will leave the Senate in July.  How long before Taylor challenges for the leadership?

The other thing about the seat of Bradfield is that it was the Liberal's safest seat.  They held it in 2016 by 71-29% two party preferred.  That is an enormous collapse in voter support in nine years,

It is a very interesting time for psephologists.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: Election 2025 (Poll added)

Reply #202 –
Couldnt get any better for Albo, the Libs and Nats divided and Susan Ley hanging on by a thread from a dud like Angus Taylor waiting for his chance to white ant her then make his move to take over the leadership.
I'll give the Libs/Nats split one term and Taylor to be the Libs leader by the next election and the Libs to get another hammering.

Re: Election 2025 (Poll added)

Reply #203 –
They will get a hammering EB, unless they can claw back the support that the Teal Independents have taken off them.  That’s going to be a challenge, particularly if they can’t mend their ideological divide.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: Election 2025 (Poll added)

Reply #204 –
Well, it seems that coalition break up may have only been a trial separation and there could be a rapprochement on the horizon.

However, it doesn't seem to have helped David Littleproud and the jungle drums are beating out "leadership challenge".
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: Election 2025 (Poll added)

Reply #205 –
Both Lib and National parties are in a bit of a mess.
But there is probably no better time to be in a bit of a mess...because the next Federal election is a long, long way away :D

Re: Election 2025 (Poll added)

Reply #206 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Well, it seems that coalition break up may have only been a trial separation and there could be a rapprochement on the horizon.

However, it doesn't seem to have helped David Littleproud and the jungle drums are beating out "leadership challenge".

Yep. Seems like the Coalition is back on.