AFL Rd 10 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

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Re: AFL Rd 10 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #135 – May 19, 2025, 08:55:49 pm

Quote from: PaulP – on May 19, 2025, 08:06:54 pm

Good to see Cooper Lord earn a Rising Star nomination.

Good to see a Blue being recognized, for a change. C'mon Cooper!

Re: AFL Rd 10 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #136 – May 19, 2025, 09:53:58 pm

If someone can explain this notion of our game style being "too taxing" it appreciate it.
From a km covered point of view, we covered 3km more than the Swans. I look at the Telstra tracker figures quite regularly. and all teams cover similar amounts of territory.
As for contests, Newtons Third law states that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction so in a contest, there are two teams competing, not one team beating themselves up.
I see no difference to the way we play from a physicality point of view than any other team in the comp. Every coach talks about winning the contested footy. Just because an "expert" says its a thing, doesnt mean it is without an explanation.

Re: AFL Rd 10 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #137 – May 19, 2025, 10:27:41 pm

This is how I see it.
When we are at our best we run hard to pressure the opposition and keep the ball from progressing towards their goal. It shows in the the tackles where we get two maybe three players involved.
We're 'up on' the opposition and cause repeated contests and errors. It's a hard physical contest type game.
Yes, there is pain on both sides in those forms of contests.
While we exert that pressure we can trouble any side.

But it's not sustainable...at least at the moment.
Maybe never with this group.
And when the game does open up 'we've fired our shot'.
We don't have another weapon.
And having pulled out their own guns the other sides finish over the top of us.

It's not so much a fitness issue, but a lack of a second form of attack.
(or as some call it Plan B)

Re: AFL Rd 10 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #138 – May 19, 2025, 10:39:30 pm

Quote from: Lods – on May 19, 2025, 10:27:41 pm

This is how I see it.
When we are at our best we run hard to pressure the opposition and keep the ball from progressing towards their goal. It shows in the the tackles where we get two maybe three players involved.
We're 'up on' the opposition and cause repeated contests and errors. It's a hard physical contest type game.
Yes, there is pain on both sides in those forms of contests.
While we exert that pressure we can trouble any side.

But it's not sustainable...at least at the moment.
Maybe never with this group.
And when the game does open up 'we've fired our shot'.
We don't have another weapon.
And having pulled out their own guns the other sides finish over the top of us.

It's not so much a fitness issue, but a lack of a second form of attack.
(or as some call it Plan B)

The top teams like Coll, Bris, Syd (when they have their full contingent) base their games on pressure to create the TO then go. We have only executed that a couple of times this year (and we won).

Re: AFL Rd 10 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #139 – May 19, 2025, 10:58:59 pm

We lead the League in Tackles and Contested ball gets...that to me equals a very taxing game.
Dont have a rebounder in the top 20 either so its not only a taxing game in general play but also taxing and slow moving the ball forward on the rebound without that Bailey Dale, J. Daicos, Whitfield type and we appear to have too many taller types down back imo.
Saad is in the top 20 for bounces but needs to get more of the ball or get it given to him more..

Re: AFL Rd 10 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #140 – Today at 07:22:22 am

Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on May 19, 2025, 10:58:59 pm

We lead the League in Tackles and Contested ball gets...that to me equals a very taxing game.
Dont have a rebounder in the top 20 either so its not only a taxing game in general play but also taxing and slow moving the ball forward on the rebound without that Bailey Dale, J. Daicos, Whitfield type and we appear to have too many taller types down back imo.
Saad is in the top 20 for bounces but needs to get more of the ball or get it given to him more..

Agree on Saad not getting further up ground to distribute the footy, I think that's symptomatic of not having Cowan and/or a Boyd in the side who stay deep releasing him.

Re: AFL Rd 10 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #141 – Today at 10:07:46 am

Agree we need more run off half back (having newman back would help here immensely).

Regarding the averages, I think this is perilous to compare with only 10 games played. We have barely played every team once (let alone the statistical bias that comes with playing twice) and I would prefer that these averages are used with 2024 or 2023 data to compare it, to measure how it compares across the league. Even so, whats the spread vs the rest? Leading the league in Tackles and Contested ball gets tells various stories, not just about game style. I imagine that a team like Collingwood doesnt tackle that much, nor Geelong as they were in possession of the football. Likewise against Adelaide I think our numbers in this regard might have been all over the shop, because every possession we got would have been under pressure, and hence contested, and we were chasing tail a lot, rather than having the ball.

We saw how uncontested the game vs west coast was. We had more uncontested ball in that game and hardly any contest which skews the average, and I seem to recall our tackle numbers being pathetic to go with it, because we had the ball for much of the game. Against Geelong we also were able to use uncontested ball to get on top of them.

To me the game styles are used to swing momentum. A slog is used when your team isn't able to get clean ball to clog up the opponent from running into the open spaces. Usually this will be paired with a spare behind the ball giving you more uncontested posession if you can use your brain, and also means, that when you pass forward, you will invariably kick to a contest without as much run if you aren't generating any and you kick longer. Is this taxing? Hard to say. I think in isolation, these metrics dont tell much of a story and deriving meaning from stats is fraught with peril and it might be that using these metrics can create a feedback loop.

IF we arent a factor of 10% greater than anyone else over the course of a season, its an insignificant number which doesnt tell a story which is probably worth more to compare.

Re: AFL Rd 10 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #142 – Today at 10:38:43 am

So I did some checking. Using totals and averages:

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2025s.html

Contested posessions
The top 5 are:

Carlton 1409
Adelaide 1353
Western Bulldogs 1351
Geelong 1343
melbourne 1330

The bottom 3 are:

Richmond 1218
West Coast 1182
Essendon 1136 * only played 9 games vs 10.

This shows a larger discrepency across the league. GC and Bombers only ones a game behind. Across the top 5 after 10 games, the variance in average is a mere 7 contested posessions per game from 1st to 5th.

Tackles (this is going to be hard due to certain issues such as how is a tackle measured? Attempt or successful? still this will be fairly consistent, so comparitively it tells a story):

Top 5:

Carlton 675 - 67 average per game
Geelong 655 - 65 average per game
Hawthorn 630
St. Kilda 616
Collingwood 613 - average 61 per game
---
Adelaide 590 - 59 per game
----
Bottom 3:

Bulldogs 537 - average 53.7 per game
GC 517 - average 57.44
Essendon 514 - 57.11

GC and Essendon playing 9 games, means that their averages are different.

Again doesnt tell a story of harder game plan. Lets see where we sit fo against:

We are being tackled more than any team (this is likely more of an issue than the amount we do). The top 5 are:

Carlton - 660
North Melbourne - 650
Richmond - 643
Geelong - 642
Hawthorn - 638

The bottom 3:

Melbourne - 515
GWS - 512
Essendon - 483 * 9 games instead of 10.

Contested possessions against:

West Coast - 1364
Port Adelaide - 1355
Sydney - 1335
Western Bulldogs - 1325

We sit 7th on this ladder - Carlton - 1310

Bottom 3 are:

Melbourne - 1279
GC - 1161 * 9 games
Essendon - 1119 * 9 games

We are middle of the road for uncontested ball against:

Richmond are first 2497
Collingwood 8th 2138
Carlton 9th 2097
Hawks are second last are last with 1969
GC last 1969

When it all boils down to it, the discrepencies across the league aren't significant, which is the key takeaway, and I don't think the stats tell a story about what we are seeing on game day significantly describing anything about our game plan or play.