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Topic: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn (Read 55885 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #90 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Its almost like the more unfit you are, the harder it is to perform optimally, and the worse decisions you make.

Every single part of the game is based on fitness. Even belief.  You know when you arent 100%. 
We lack pace and kicking skills...the players we have on the list dont have whats required for the modern transition game.
We beat Melbourne who play the same way as us with the same type of players, it was two outdated teams playing a horrible brand to watch. I agree and get we are carrying players who are injured, sore or who want to leave and have zero interest etc but that more amplifies a problem we already have imho.


Its funny though, they've been fine in first quarters/halves.  Either our opposition are asleep or we are under done.  We've kicked almost 50 points by quarter time on multiple occasions.  Either we're spending our petrol tickets too early, or we just lack 4 quarter efforts.  Tired bodies, tired minds, tired efforts, tired execution.

Im not sure if it isnt just a giant feedback loop, and then the confidence has also suffered.  Of late weve been better late with poorer starts.  It cant be a coincidence.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #91 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on

We lack pace and kicking skills...the players we have on the list dont have whats required for the modern transition game.
We beat Melbourne who play the same way as us with the same type of players, it was two outdated teams playing a horrible brand to watch. I agree and get we are carrying players who are injured, sore or who want to leave and have zero interest etc but that more amplifies a problem we already have imho.


Its funny though, they've been fine in first quarters/halves.  Either our opposition are asleep or we are under done.  We've kicked almost 50 points by quarter time on multiple occasions.  Either we're spending our petrol tickets too early, or we just lack 4 quarter efforts.  Tired bodies, tired minds, tired efforts, tired execution.

Im not sure if it isnt just a giant feedback loop, and then the confidence has also suffered.  Of late weve been better late with poorer starts.  It cant be a coincidence.
I don't think it's fitness - our game style is so stodgy, there will always be times when it looks like we are run off our feet.

Our stock standard play seems to be a dump kick to the wing - it's no wonder we struggle to go forward with any precision.  And when we do inevitably miss a kick or a handpass due to poor skill levels, and the other mob get it, it's off to the races.  That's when we look slow and tired.  Good oppositions know they just have to bide their time, turn the screw, and a Carlton turnover is never far away.

Until we catch up to the rest of the competition and find some line-breaking half backs, we will never get any pace into our game, and we will be chasing tails all day.
 
This is now the longest premiership drought in the history of the Carlton Football Club - more evidence of climate change?

Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #92 –
I disagree.  I think the impact of having opponents who can crucify you on the turnover is making us be less bold attacking, and thats due to not being able to run up and down all day.

Its the what came first the chicken or the egg.

You guys keep saying the egg is the problem, no its the chicken is, but ultimately its a situation where you cant really point to any one thing and say its that, because our execution at times is so poor that you cant pin it on any one thing.  We dont just defend, we kick it too high to our forwards giving them no chance.  We arent two way running hard enough because they cant get back quickly when they run forward, so they play cautious and dont run as hard.

It's not a function of being a crab.   We've been pretty good at times and against pretty much every opponent at times.  Thats the issue its very patchy and the takeaway is always to the negative as that's why you dont win, but its ignoring some of the good stuff and thankless running.  We've missed some genuine A grade talent over the course of the year and the rest have been well below their best.  Collingwood didnt make finals last year because they were having a bit of a mare and they only really had Darcy Moore off his best, and Elliot missed 7 games.

Premiers to no finals and look at them go now.  Why are Sydney struggling so much this year?  Is it because they missed gulden for most of the year, parley under done too?  Take two components away from any team and they struggle.  We lost from last year 3 players that were humming along and doing well, partly by choice partly by dumb luck and also lost form from a key contingent.  Mid year next year we will know whats what about us, but IMHO if the game plan isnt working its not by design its by sloppy execution and personnel not really performing to close to their best.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #93 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Mid year next year we will know whats what about us, but IMHO if the game plan isnt working its not by design its by sloppy execution and personnel not really performing to close to their best.

The last time our group looked dangerous in all aspects of the game was the second half of 2023... After the players meeting (Camp Curnow), minus coaches, the players obviously took ownership over their destiny themselves and rapid change was achieved. Same players, same skills, some important blokes missing but a very different result for the remainder of the season. The players bought into 'their' game plan.

Sloppy execution to moi is a symptom. And what our sloppy execution is a symptom of is for all those in the footy department to ascertain. Inadequate development? Players not buying in to game plan? Injuries to key personnel? Perplexing MC selections? Square pegs/round holes? Other factors like embarrassing Prez shenanigans, key personnel not committing (TDK) and/or other disruptions behind closed doors that we're not aware of? Probably a mix of all these things.

From the cheap seats, it seems to this little black duck that our dreadful results of the past year are symptomatic of a poorly run football department, in toto.

Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #94 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Mid year next year we will know whats what about us, but IMHO if the game plan isnt working its not by design its by sloppy execution and personnel not really performing to close to their best.

The last time our group looked dangerous in all aspects of the game was the second half of 2023... After the players meeting (Camp Curnow), minus coaches, the players obviously took ownership over their destiny themselves and rapid change was achieved. Same players, same skills, some important blokes missing but a very different result for the remainder of the season. The players bought into 'their' game plan.

Sloppy execution to moi is a symptom. And what our sloppy execution is a symptom of is for all those in the footy department to ascertain. Inadequate development? Players not buying in to game plan? Injuries to key personnel? Perplexing MC selections? Square pegs/round holes? Other factors like embarrassing Prez shenanigans, key personnel not committing (TDK) and/or other disruptions behind closed doors that we're not aware of? Probably a mix of all these things.

From the cheap seats, it seems to this little black duck that our dreadful results of the past year are symptomatic of a poorly run football department, in toto.


You didnt rate our wins in round 16 and 17 2024?  What about having scored 8.2 by quarter time in round 18 vs GWS?  The problem vs GWS was copping 14 goals in 2 quarters of footy, but we looked good for that patch.

It wasnt that long ago in football terms.  I think a few people are being too down on our season and forget how good we were until the latter part of 2024.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #95 –
Yep.
I think we have multiple views of where we're going wrong, and it may be just that...
Not one area,  but multiple areas all coming together in a 'perfect storm'.
Which makes the 'fixing' much harder.
 

Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #96 –
2023 we recovered because we had senior depth.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #97 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Quote from: Baggers – on


The last time our group looked dangerous in all aspects of the game was the second half of 2023... After the players meeting (Camp Curnow), minus coaches, the players obviously took ownership over their destiny themselves and rapid change was achieved. Same players, same skills, some important blokes missing but a very different result for the remainder of the season. The players bought into 'their' game plan.

Sloppy execution to moi is a symptom. And what our sloppy execution is a symptom of is for all those in the footy department to ascertain. Inadequate development? Players not buying in to game plan? Injuries to key personnel? Perplexing MC selections? Square pegs/round holes? Other factors like embarrassing Prez shenanigans, key personnel not committing (TDK) and/or other disruptions behind closed doors that we're not aware of? Probably a mix of all these things.

From the cheap seats, it seems to this little black duck that our dreadful results of the past year are symptomatic of a poorly run football department, in toto.


You didnt rate our wins in round 16 and 17 2024?  What about having scored 8.2 by quarter time in round 18 vs GWS?  The problem vs GWS was copping 14 goals in 2 quarters of footy, but we looked good for that patch.

It wasnt that long ago in football terms.  I think a few people are being too down on our season and forget how good we were until the latter part of 2024.

That's very true.
It was only a year ago we were flag favourites according to some pundits.
That kind of goes against the idea that we don't play a modern or sustainable style.

In fact the high pressure, contest type of football is one that would probably stand up under finals pressure.
The multiple tackles and pressure on the ball and player will cause what we regard as elite opposition skills to disappear.
For a number of reasons we're just not capable of applying that at present,

Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #98 –
Quote from: Lods – on
That's very true.
It was only a year ago we were flag favourites according to some pundits.
That kind of goes against the idea that we don't play a modern or sustainable style.

In fact the high pressure, contest type of football is one that would probably stand up under finals pressure.
The multiple tackles and pressure on the ball and player will cause what we regard as elite opposition skills to disappear.
For a number of reasons we're just not capable of applying that at present,
If I'm being completely honest? I see SFA difference between the way all teams "play", to my eye the ones that are cleaner with the footy and are a bit quicker across the ground are contenders to win the flag.
Maybe my eye isnt sophisticated enough to decipher nitty gritty tactics employed but CB set up and clearances all look the same, switching from side to side get a different look at entries seem the same, kick outs seem the same, corridor use when its an option seems the same. It all boiles down to how clean and clever you are with the footy by hand and foot, how you take opportunities in front of goal and how well you tackle (how poorly we do this was evident on Thurs night).

Just on tackling, I mentioned how undervalued and underrated it is at our club, I was listening to Corn and Kingy this morning and they were talking about the Crows and their tackling. There was a grab from Nicks' presser and he said how its been "years of work put in". Corn went on to say how he has heard of numbers coming out of their gym work (ie weight they lift) and its off the charts. Its any wonder they tackle so hard, they break tackles well and bully teams around the ground.
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #99 –
I generally agree GTC.

Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #100 –
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on

If I'm being completely honest? I see SFA difference between the way all teams "play", to my eye the ones that are cleaner with the footy and are a bit quicker across the ground are contenders to win the flag.

I think the way teams play is very much determined by how they are "allowed" to play. by the opposition.

If you're hard at it and up in their face those skills and run suddenly don't seem so elite.


Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #101 –
If players think that every time they possess the ball will be a potentially painful experience then confidence will be undermined.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #102 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Yep.
I think we have multiple views of where we're going wrong, and it may be just that...
Not one area,  but multiple areas all coming together in a 'perfect storm'.
Which makes the 'fixing' much harder.
This is why im so against scorching the earth or even cutting loose the senior blokes for draft capital.

We are so close to achieving something and most of our guys need help, not to be replaced.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=5&playerStatus2=A&tid2=5&type=A&pid1=1611&pid2=1611&fid1=P&fopt1=2018&fid2=P&fopt2=2021

This is pendlebury circa 2018 vs pendlebury circa 2021.  What would we have done to him in 2021?  Retired him probably.

Docherty has pulled the pin on his own steam, and seems to be at peace with the decision, but I doubt he was the type to go searching elsewhere at this stage of his career.  Given where he has come back from, I wonder how much the decision was his, or taken out of his hands.  Irrespective, I want to be fair to the bloke and have compared him with another Collingwood player at a similar age.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=4&playerStatus2=A&tid2=5&type=A&pid1=3650&pid2=3117&fid1=S&fid2=P&fopt2=2022

Steele is a gun.  Hasnt had anywhere near as many issues as Docherty either, but I wonder would Docherty have gone on or not?  (should he is a different question, but Im placing this here to challenge the ideas that people have).

Granted, in Docherty's case he is going out after having squeezed every ounce out of his body that he can, and his set backs have been considerable, but why are our guys all broken and busted beyond repair, but these guys keep on keeping on for another 3 years?  Why do we have to trade everyone for draft capital?  Why?  It doesnt make sense to me.  Its some pre conceived idea that everyone must be finished by 32, and everyone must be traded because they wont play in our next flag (or something like that).  Blokes like Robert Harvey, Boomer Harvey play for 20 years without really playing finals, let alone experience success.  If they have value to you, they have value to you.  Thats not to say that Docherty shouldnt retire, but given where society is, players should be playing a lot longer than they used to be.  They recover better, they dont get hit as hard, the lists are a bit larger than they used to be, they interchange.  Might take some better management, and better capability to spread the load, but im just sitting here thinking to myself, if we go through drastic change, all we are going to do is shut the window on ourselves and wonder what might have been.

Given how starved of achievement we have been, and the "trade to go young" approach we have used historically I dont see the merit in it.  Fool me once, shame on you.   Fool me twice, shame on me.

Look at Gunston at Hawthorn.  Breust.  These guys are in their mid 30's too.  Still going.  Sure, they have worked their list over and have a bit more youth coming through, but their average age is a lot older, they just seem to be in better condition, and also have more leg speed, where we are coughing and spluttering.  We might not ever get the guys we have fit, but build the bottom layer, and keep the top layer in as good condition as possible.  Its a feature in every team.  Taylor Walker at Adelaide.  Danger at Geelong.  34 going on 35 year olds.  Dont just trade them cause they are 28 and we are impatient.  There is more to be had out of players these days if we are serious about high performance.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #103 –
Our list is generally consists of contested hard working types that possess below average foot speed, below average skills in particular by foot and mentally weak as well it has to be said. 

Its a list that can beat the odd good team but wont ever have the necessary qualities to go deep into a season beating the better teams in big pressure moments. Yes we scrapped in winning 2 finals in 2023 but look at the opposition on those days the luck we had in the dying seconds. That year was the worst thing that could have happened to this group. We would have been hammered by pies if we beat loins in the PF. Haven't got close since. 

Add in a coaching group that is not up to latest trends and tactics and that's why we sit 5 games and percentage out of the 8 with still 4 matches to go.

We need an influx of players who are quick and can hit targets consistently. The top 4 teams have plenty of them i don't think we have 1 and losing Jack who is not our worst by foot and TDK who is quick is going to compound the issue. 

Staggering to think there are those who still believe minor changes will get us storming back up into contention. Wright would have seen enough and i expect major changes in the trade period. 

Re: AFL Rd 20 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #104 –
I generally agree Thry. I'm against weakening the list based on a problematic premise, i.e player x won't be part of our next flag. The future is impossible to know. Our next flag might be in 2026, it may not be for another 50 years. We need the best players playing for as long as possible, to give us the best chance of winning as many games as possible. Not much to it more than that IMO.