Melbourne Cup

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Melbourne Cup

November 04, 2025, 08:21:13 am

Pick a horse...any horse

I've spent the last two weeks analysing the field and running the data.
I've ended up with the following

3 Arapaho
6 Presage Nocturne
9 Absurde

Which is actually 369 my old house number.
(it's a lottery)

Re: Melbourne Cup

Reply #1 – November 04, 2025, 10:15:02 am

I stopped an annual bet on the Melbourne cup many years ago now.

Good luck to all punters but I always win on cup day by not betting. I get the public holiday that gamblers pay for.

Re: Melbourne Cup

Reply #2 – November 04, 2025, 11:24:19 am

Never laid a bet on the cup and dont intend to start. Havent watched the race for as long as i can remember, Pagan was probably coach at the time.

I don't bet on basically anything, but horses would be way down the list.
Cards and games of chance are easier to calculate the odds and generally are immune to cheating.
Horses have too many human variables and each of them can influence the outcome to benefit themselves.
Pass

Re: Melbourne Cup

Reply #3 – November 04, 2025, 11:55:50 am

My father-in-law raced horses and was a pretty avid punter.
He'd sit at the breakfast table with the form and pick out a horse he thought would win, and then drive 100k to the track so he could see it and place a bet with the bookies
100k just for one bet.

He never bet on the Melbourne Cup.

Re: Melbourne Cup

Reply #4 – November 04, 2025, 01:56:56 pm

Wouldn't know the front from the back of horse, safe trip to all the Jockeys and their trusty steeds.

Re: Melbourne Cup

Reply #5 – November 04, 2025, 02:40:16 pm

PS I normally go for Jockeys, J Mac or Zahra will win it. Then there's trainers, I can guarantee you Gai wont wont win it, Waller or McEvoy.

Re: Melbourne Cup

Reply #6 – November 04, 2025, 04:54:26 pm

Quote from: Gointocarlton – on November 04, 2025, 02:40:16 pm

PS I normally go for Jockeys, J Mac or Zahra will win it. Then there's trainers, I can guarantee you Gai wont wont win it, Waller or McEvoy.

For someone who doesn't know the back of a horse from the front you seem pretty familiar with those that train them.
I suspect you know a little more than you're letting on.

Re: Melbourne Cup

Reply #7 – November 04, 2025, 05:12:39 pm

Quote from: Lods – on November 04, 2025, 04:54:26 pm

Quote from: Gointocarlton – on November 04, 2025, 02:40:16 pm
PS I normally go for Jockeys, J Mac or Zahra will win it. Then there's trainers, I can guarantee you Gai wont wont win it, Waller or McEvoy.

For someone who doesn't know the back of a horse from the front you seem pretty familiar with those that train them.
I suspect you know a little more than you're letting on.

Seriously Lods, I dont. I remember the jockeys and trainers names and know which are the good ones. As for the horses, it staggers me how punters remember them, know their form etc. I listen to SEN on the weekends and enjoy when they cover the racing. I like David Taggart as a radio personality, very funny man and knows his crap. How on earth they seem to know every horse in the country (and abroad) is beyond comprehension for me. They showed this thing of the coverage how every ten years something special happens, 10 years ago Michelle Payne became the first woman to win a MC, I thought how good would be for Jamie to with the CC and MC double. As for punting, I bet on things extremely rarely.

Re: Melbourne Cup

Reply #8 – November 04, 2025, 07:33:47 pm

I haven’t had a bet since my soon to be son in law’s buck’s night at the Ballarat trots.

I had one bet and nailed a quinella after the leading horse fell over. A very profitable night - in many ways!

It was an interesting race today and a good result, not the least because it was the only Aussie bred horse in the race. I was a little concerned about the blood on Half Yours’ muzzle but it didn’t seem to cause much fuss.

The only thing that could have been better is if the gelding’s name was “Up Yours” 😇