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Topic: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat (Read 9091 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #180 –
It's easy to underestimate the importance of our NGA in building our list. Yes, we have two highly-rated draft picks in Harry Dean and Jack Ison who are yet to play a game , but they're not unknown quantities.

Dean, in particular, has been at Princes Park for years, spent much of his rehab from a broken shoulder there, has had Nic Newman working with him on his video reviews and has been following the club dietician's eating plan for a couple of years,  He knows most of the players well and has taken part in training drills and match sims for years.  Ison hasn't had quite the same exposure, and he doesn't have a club legend father.  He is still known around the club, knows the players and the training drills and has been mentored by Sam Walsh. The fact that neither Dean nor Ison are newbies walking into Princes Park for the first time gives them an advantage over Talor Byrne, and many other youngsters who were taken in this draft.  The club also knew exactly what it was getting when if committed to both lads, and that's another advantage.

They still have to put in the work and hope for good fortune but they're ahead of the field.

Cody Walker is following a similar path to Dean and should have a seamless transition to senior footy - provided the AFL doesn't screw us with its changes to father-son rules.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #181 –
Quote from: shawny – on
Quote from: kruddler – on

No its going back to the original point.
Our list got weaker.

The opposition to this justify this by saying we got younger as we were too old.
I'm pointing out relative to the opposition, we got older.
The players we recruited, half of them were older than our average age.
That flies in the face of the arguement that we are rebuilding/rejuvinating and getting younger.
THIS was the justification for destroying our prelim list and the reason we are nosediving.

I'm calling BS on the rejuvination of the list as a viable strategy given we've barely moved the age needle, and done so less than most who are not doing the same thing.

All this falls back to the same question which i can't get a straight answer on.

WHY does everyone have so much faith in the current list management team?
The reasons i've had so far are contradictory at worst, and weak at best.

i can’t believe how much your position has changed especially in the last 6 months

You were always one of the very much glass half full over the last decade and now what seems in a very short time have flipped.

do you agree?

Yes and no.

I've been pretty consistent on my messaging over the years.  Draft kpps before you need them.
I've given the recruiters the benefit of the don't (against my better judgement) for a lot of that time.
Every year i hear, we didn't have the picks, we didn't have talent available etc.
Well this year beyond a shadow of a doubt we did.... and we still didn't do anything about it.... including attempting to cover the loss of Charlie.

As frustrating as that is, people are now congratulating them and saying our list had improved on top of that?  I feel like I'm living in the twilight zone or something and everyone else is brainwashed by the club (most, not everyone)

I feel like Al Gore trying to earn everyone about climate change but nobody is listening and they won't listen until everyone else stays talking about it too. In the meantime I'm just a negative crackpot.

So yes, I've been much more vocal about it because of run out of patience with our team and have no faith in what they are doing. No, i hasn't changed my thinking process though.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #182 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
People have faith in the current list management team, because of the car crash that has surrounded our footy club in this department outside of Silvagni.  Austin is not a departure from his approach.  He is more of the same, just with a different name.  You dont like him because you dont agree with his strategy (or the clubs direction) but thats more of a philosophical question that can only be discussed in theory.  The second we do something different, you lose the ability to prove or disprove something.   Hence why you come across like screaming into the void, and most people on here going, well, you cannot actually assert that and be proven correct.  All you can do is point to a failing and say I told you so.  Even that failing though is potentially based on a pre conceived idea. Austin didnt strengthen our list for 2026.  He didnt do it for 2025 either.  That much is true, but the list composition that got us to a prelim in 2023 was as much by his machinations as it was by SOS.  Do we get there without his moves to secure, Cerra, Hewett and Saad?  Probably not but that flaky underbelly that we have all hated at our club has persisted during both recruiters regimes.  SOS did a good job with us.  It could have been better, and he will rightly admit that, but he played the hand he was dealt.  Austin effectively did similar.  We are glossing over something else here too.  To me, the thing that stopped us more than anything else was dumb luck.   A run of season ending injuries ive not seen in a footy club before since 2015. 

...

Thing is, HOF was good.  ACL.  Jagga appears to have all the right stuff said about him.  ACL.  We have Dean joining the fray, and we also have Walker coming in, but then the AFL have pulled a fast one on us.  Instead of getting the guys without the premium draft picks, ala Daicos and all the Brisbane Father sons like Fletcher and Ashcrofts x2 we have had to pony up to get them.  So that means looking at futures rather than the now.  It had to mean sacrificing selecting a key tall to net in additional draft picks next year.  To me, that was as simple as they wont help us now, and we will need them moving forward to flesh out the following.

....

Rightly or wrongly, our club has made the decision to neglect the short term and gamble on a few players that are not dial movers but solid citizens (to be frank, using history as a guide, our rise was fleeting, and too much went wrong to sustain us up there and most of the truly big clubs never really feared us as Geelong has been the only side with bonafides we have consistently troubled over the last 5 years) in an effort to carry us forward.  Thing is, this might be enough if it all goes well enough, which thus far it hasnt.  I wouldnt be banking on it all going swimmingly either, as that just doesnt happen at Carlton, but you never say never.  Irrespective, I see enough in what we are doing to prevent us bottoming out once Cripps goes, and potentially to get us back up the ladder fairly quickly and hopefully removing that flaky under belly in the process. 

Maybe im too optimistic about it, but I can see what they are trying to do, and that is enough for me.  @kruddler you seem to be most negative about what they are doing and I understand that too, as there is no time like the present and we need to be getting better now, but old Carlton used to walk that road.  Old Carlton would top up with a couple of players and then put us in the mix.  Thing is, old Carlton is dead, and any attempts we make to resuscitate it seem to end up causing premature bottoming out, and doesnt look to be a sustainable way of moving forward.  I have a cousin who is similarly minded.  He is in his late 40's and always likes to bag me out for not understanding the old Carlton way because im only in my early 40's, but I remember what it was like.  Thing is, that was over half my lifetime ago, and I dont see the point in attempting to emulate old Carlton.  The competition has 5 extra teams now, and attempting to be old Carlton has simply delivered our worst performing 20 years in the clubs history, with a few highlights.  So am happy there is a plan, we are executing it, and it seems to have its heart in the right place.  Will the results marry up?  Im not sure, but I for one am happy to have a proffessional approach which will hopefully avoid years of pain.  I can handle a couple of dissapointing years, but not another decade of "rebuilding".

For the record, i'm only 45, so this is not about 'old carlton'.

I like to think i'm very modern in my thinking. I am always looking at ways to improve our team, our club and the entire AFL competition but get shouted down by traditionalists who say thats not how things are done.

I find it amusing that my 'go to the draft for KPPs' is now 'outdated'. The alternative being poach them from somewhere else later.
To me THAT is 'old carlton' and a poor way to ensure success. Carlton doesn't have the same aura (or brown paper bags) to facilitate such moves like they did in the past. Its a strategy that relies on other teams coming to the party.....and i don't want to rely on other teams doing our work. I'd much rather take that out of their hands. Otherwise its another year of 'but there was nothing available, can't blame the recruiters for that'. Well you can, because thats the path they took and they should've planned that better!

Anyway, i've highlighted a few bits from your above post.
Since i'm seemingly in the minority and arguing with many people, it seems not everyone i'm arguing against is on the same page.
The first part is something that you concede and agree with me on. However, others in a similar position to you cannot come to the same conclusion. That worries me as thats pretty clear to me and makes me think i'm arguing with overly emotive people who cannot see reason.
Everyones entitled to their opinion, but i can't see any evidence to back that up, just navy glasses in action IMO.

The second highlighted part is something i disagree with. I pointed out before it happened that we did NOT need to overlook KPP. We chose too. Big difference. I flagged moving up a couple spots on night 2 to make sure we got 'our guy' whover that may be (for me it was Ludowyck - for the club it was Emmett) and ensuring we could still get Ison. I don't know if the club tried, but ultimately they didn't. Whether that a failure, or simply choosing not too....same result.

Third part...our club has chosen to ignore the short term....which is fine....i suggested it was a distinct possibility that we would need to IF TDK left and Charlie left (and Jack while we are at it). Problem is, we are trying to be half-pregnant. Why didn't we try and sell off some more talent now. Cripps might want to go home. Harry might be better off elsewhere etc etc.
The way we are tracking, they will most likely end up counting the days and rueing this time at the end of their careers when they 'could/should' have moved on.

Finally...ultimately i think you are being too optimistic.
I'm sure plenty of people saying i'm being too negative.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #183 –
You don't build a list by selling off talent, particularly when that talent is invested in the club and provides a role model and leadership on and off the field.  Those qualities are why I believe that we'll miss Doc more than the other three.

That said, footy clubs and their players are resilient and are used to change.  Our players have mentioned the challenge and excitement of new teammates and new coaches.  They don't sook about a teammate going to another club or a favourite coach moving on.  They just get on with the job.

List managers aren't focused on our best 23 for next season.  They've got lots of balls in the air and are planning several seasons ahead both in terms of potential new players and those who may want to move on or have passed their use by date.  Think back to SOS's "sustainable list".

I'm interested to know what Thry means by "old Carlton".  To me, "old Carlton" went when SOS and his crew moved into a list management hub, adopted the Boston Red Sox's list management database and began using an analytics program for player evaluation.  Austin has moved further forward with a dedicated list management strategy guru and data analysts to crunch the numbers.  No wonder some supporters struggle to keep up.

We only have one survivor from the "old Carlton" days now, not that there weren't a handful that had decent careers.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #184 –
Quote from: DJC – on
You don't build a list by selling off talent, particularly when that talent is invested in the club and provides a role model and leadership on and off the field. 

Thought you said Charlie was invested in the club. He said he was staying. Coach said he was staying. But.....he's wearing red and white now.

Players being invested (or not) can change with the wind. Value has a pretty steady decline.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #185 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: DJC – on
You don't build a list by selling off talent, particularly when that talent is invested in the club and provides a role model and leadership on and off the field. 

Thought you said Charlie was invested in the club. He said he was staying. Coach said he was staying. But.....he's wearing red and white now.

Players being invested (or not) can change with the wind. Value has a pretty steady decline.

I don’t believe that I said that Charlie was invested in the club.  Charlie is invested in Charlie … and that’s fine. 

Florent and Hayward had just signed four year contracts and were highly valued by the coach. Nek minnit there’s a new coach and they’re gorn.

So yes, things change for some folk.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #186 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: shawny – on


i can’t believe how much your position has changed especially in the last 6 months

You were always one of the very much glass half full over the last decade and now what seems in a very short time have flipped.

do you agree?

Yes and no.

I've been pretty consistent on my messaging over the years.  Draft kpps before you need them.
I've given the recruiters the benefit of the don't (against my better judgement) for a lot of that time.
Every year i hear, we didn't have the picks, we didn't have talent available etc.
Well this year beyond a shadow of a doubt we did.... and we still didn't do anything about it.... including attempting to cover the loss of Charlie.

As frustrating as that is, people are now congratulating them and saying our list had improved on top of that?  I feel like I'm living in the twilight zone or something and everyone else is brainwashed by the club (most, not everyone)

I feel like Al Gore trying to earn everyone about climate change but nobody is listening and they won't listen until everyone else stays talking about it too. In the meantime I'm just a negative crackpot.

So yes, I've been much more vocal about it because of run out of patience with our team and have no faith in what they are doing. No, i hasn't changed my thinking process though.

That probably is a fair illustration of why you're experiencing a bit of angst and frustration.
You're committed to the "we're going to suck in 2026" idea.

You've given them the 'benefit of the doubt'
You feel like you're living in the "twilight zone"
You feel like Al Gore, and no one is listening to your message.
You've run out of patience.
I suspect it's your own mindset that has you baffled, you think you know better.
Better than recruiters with a wealth of knowledge, observation and data as well as face to face discussions with these guys.
There's a reason why we would have taken Emmett at 28 yet passed on Ludowyke when we could have taken him at that pick.

Have you ever considered the possibility.... you may be wrong. ;)
And that the dire straits you think were in aren't really that 'dire' at all.
,
Yes, we had a preliminary side but when it came to the crunch they weren't good enough.
There were deficiencies in the side that were exposed, and in subsequent seasons, with injuries and other issues, the lack of depth really hurt.
Over the last two seasons the drafting has revolved around addressing things like pace, and disposal...as well as adding that depth.
But we haven't been completely negligent in the young tall department with O'Keefe, O'Farrell and Dean being added.
The loss of some key players is an issue, but the form and injury concerns mean that it may not be as significant as it may seem to some.
I've considered the possibility that if things go a bit pear shaped in the injury, team connection and commitment (and luck) department again we could stuggle, but I'm more confident that a good run with those things will see us finish in a better ladder position than this year.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #187 –
@Lods....could be wrong...but what ive been saying for years has proven correct thus far.
Draft kpps before you need them so you don't get caught red handed... like we have been.

Replace a guy who plays every game of the year and fulfills multiple roles for you with someone other than a draftee.

Not all of my jumping up and down is about what happens from here. Its about what has happened to get us to here and I've said it at the time, so it's not with the benefit of hindsight.

I don't expect you to see what i see through my eyes and with my thoughts. What you see on here is only a snippet.

I'm not the only one who thinks we will drop this year. I might be the loudest voice, but in but the only one.
 

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #189 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
@Lods....could be wrong...but what ive been saying for years has proven correct thus far.
Draft kpps before you need them so you don't get caught red handed... like we have been.

Replace a guy who plays every game of the year and fulfills multiple roles for you with someone other than a draftee.

Not all of my jumping up and down is about what happens from here. Its about what has happened to get us to here and I've said it at the time, so it's not with the benefit of hindsight.

I don't expect you to see what i see through my eyes and with my thoughts. What you see on here is only a snippet.

I'm not the only one who thinks we will drop this year. I might be the loudest voice, but in but the only one.

Don't you feel a change in focus the last two years?
I think there is a vast difference to our recruiting, and the players we're bringing in in recent times
Anything prior to 2023 is ancient history...we need to put those days behind us and they shouldn't even be a consideration, because you can't change the past.
Kennedy had a good year at the Bulldogs but would he have played every game with us if Smith and Walsh had played all year, would Hewett have played so well given they would probably have shared duties...and on the other side of the coin would Cooper Lord have been given as much game time had he stayed...even Evans would probably have missed out on his opportunities if Kennedy played forward.
Kennedy's loss was well covered...If we're hanging our hat on his ruck abilities it's a very small hatstand.

Now just on our weaknesses...it certainly wasn't a lack of talls down back.
Our defence held up pretty well.
In fact it was only 2-3 points per game worse than the premiers.
The only two tall forwards who gave us any trouble were King and Georgiades in the first Port game. He was well held in the second.

The problems centred mostly around inefficiency in the forward line. Not only entry into the forward line but the inability to keep it there, and disposal efficiency once inside. It was terrible...and Curnow's inability to offer much of a contest once the ball hit the deck was a contributing factor.
Surely that is better this year...and with some of the youngsters like O'Keefe and Moir with a years more experience, it could enhance that...and that's even before we consider the new boys.

It's not a Utopia, but it's not a Disaster either.
For every negative there is more than likely a positive, and how it all plays out depends on the usual variables like luck, form and injury.