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Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #195
Whilst I acknowledge this thread is about the list improving or worsening, I am a little surprised about the lack of discussion throughout the forum of things beyond the list. Leaving aside the obvious ultimate goal of a premiership, what we all want to see is more wins and more convincing form. Improvement can come from a number of sources, which are not always on field and when they are, they're not easy to gauge or measure. It may be that Davies and Wright will provide leadership and direction that has been previously lacking, which will flow through the organization. It may be that the presence of Boak, Simpson, and new assistant coaches will give Voss the support and feedback he needs to go to the next level. There may have been disharmony and distraction throughout the playing group wrt Charlie, De Koning and Jack Silvagni - perhaps that is now in the past, and a more unified, less distracted group may play better football. We have finally have better luck with injuries etc.

Treating the players as atomistic, self contained entities, like parts of a machine, certainly has its place, but can only take you so far IMO. 

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #196
When we made the prelim in 2023 I thought it was the beginning of about 5 years of finals and being a contender. I didn't think we would be rebuilding 2 years later.
2 years is a long time in footy.  2 years earlier the Dees were premiers and we didnt look like making finals.

Instead we beat them against the odds (which tells a story of itself) to make a prelim from outside the top 4.

Whilst we all expected to go on with it, 12 months later when the wheels had fallen off, it became apparent that the game had gone away from us.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

 

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #197
When we made the prelim in 2023 I thought it was the beginning of about 5 years of finals and being a contender. I didn't think we would be rebuilding 2 years later.

...and i'm not sure you will find many who thought anything other than the same.

But here we are.

....and people are trying to say it 'needed' to happen.
Obviously, i disagree.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #198


i can’t believe how much your position has changed especially in the last 6 months

You were always one of the very much glass half full over the last decade and now what seems in a very short time have flipped.

do you agree?

Yes and no.

I've been pretty consistent on my messaging over the years.  Draft kpps before you need them.
I've given the recruiters the benefit of the don't (against my better judgement) for a lot of that time.
Every year i hear, we didn't have the picks, we didn't have talent available etc.
Well this year beyond a shadow of a doubt we did.... and we still didn't do anything about it.... including attempting to cover the loss of Charlie.

As frustrating as that is, people are now congratulating them and saying our list had improved on top of that?  I feel like I'm living in the twilight zone or something and everyone else is brainwashed by the club (most, not everyone)

I feel like Al Gore trying to earn everyone about climate change but nobody is listening and they won't listen until everyone else stays talking about it too. In the meantime I'm just a negative crackpot.

So yes, I've been much more vocal about it because of run out of patience with our team and have no faith in what they are doing. No, i hasn't changed my thinking process though.

I hear you but I dont think you are being 100% honest because as recent as early in the year when many including myself wrote another season off when dropping the first batch of games you were always the one who seemed to find a way to stay positive and usually came up with a scenario were not all was lost. You were equally positive during the game threads and rarely conceded until there was no other option.

And you were not a massive fan of TDK so this big turn in your view seems mainly on the back of losing 2 players Charlie and Jack and not replacing a like for a like with them?

I don't blame you for saying enough is enough as you know I lost faith many years ago and had major doubts the current list holes were much bigger then many on here want to believe.

 

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #199
You don't build a list by selling off talent, particularly when that talent is invested in the club and provides a role model and leadership on and off the field.  Those qualities are why I believe that we'll miss Doc more than the other three.

That said, footy clubs and their players are resilient and are used to change.  Our players have mentioned the challenge and excitement of new teammates and new coaches.  They don't sook about a teammate going to another club or a favourite coach moving on.  They just get on with the job.

List managers aren't focused on our best 23 for next season.  They've got lots of balls in the air and are planning several seasons ahead both in terms of potential new players and those who may want to move on or have passed their use by date.  Think back to SOS's "sustainable list".

I'm interested to know what Thry means by "old Carlton".  To me, "old Carlton" went when SOS and his crew moved into a list management hub, adopted the Boston Red Sox's list management database and began using an analytics program for player evaluation.  Austin has moved further forward with a dedicated list management strategy guru and data analysts to crunch the numbers.  No wonder some supporters struggle to keep up.

We only have one survivor from the "old Carlton" days now, not that there weren't a handful that had decent careers.
old Carlton wouldnt have drafted youth at all.  Wouldn't have prioritised jagga, Dean and walker, would have traded out these picks for players, and attempted to climb the ladder that way.
We've attempted both.  The players weve gotten could be great, or could be average.  Theres always a possibility that we infect them with the Carlton malaise.


Not sure which 'Old Carlton' you're referring to?

The one in the 70s - 90s was ruthless, sacked coaches the second we werent winning flags, were hated by everyone but also feared by the whole comp.  That period netted a lazy 7 flags and yes they did some shady stuff and were solely focused on one goal and had no patience in the process - the end result was we won flags. In the modern era how clean are the cats with all deals they do behind the scenes with players contracts yet everyone praises them as a team that never rebuilds and is a ongoing powerhouse yet many want to dismiss our past ?

Not me.

Post 90s, the next 2 and half decades the 'new Carlton' are much nicer, we have no d1ckhead polices and a playing list filled with as EB1 says Von Trapps types, yet in this period added zero flags.

Give me the 'Old Carlton' anyday.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #200


Yes and no.

I've been pretty consistent on my messaging over the years.  Draft kpps before you need them.
I've given the recruiters the benefit of the don't (against my better judgement) for a lot of that time.
Every year i hear, we didn't have the picks, we didn't have talent available etc.
Well this year beyond a shadow of a doubt we did.... and we still didn't do anything about it.... including attempting to cover the loss of Charlie.

As frustrating as that is, people are now congratulating them and saying our list had improved on top of that?  I feel like I'm living in the twilight zone or something and everyone else is brainwashed by the club (most, not everyone)

I feel like Al Gore trying to earn everyone about climate change but nobody is listening and they won't listen until everyone else stays talking about it too. In the meantime I'm just a negative crackpot.

So yes, I've been much more vocal about it because of run out of patience with our team and have no faith in what they are doing. No, i hasn't changed my thinking process though.

I hear you but I dont think you are being 100% honest because as recent as early in the year when many including myself wrote another season off when dropping the first batch of games you were always the one who seemed to find a way to stay positive and usually came up with a scenario were not all was lost. You were equally positive during the game threads and rarely conceded until there was no other option.

And you were not a massive fan of TDK so this big turn in your view seems mainly on the back of losing 2 players Charlie and Jack and not replacing a like for a like with them?

I don't blame you for saying enough is enough as you know I lost faith many years ago and had major doubts the current list holes were much bigger then many on here want to believe.

Its good that you point out that i was usually very positive, i am or at least was.
I find it amusing when people disagree with my opinions on the matter and say im just being negative, most are more negative than me.

re tdk...
A lot of people misunderstand me when it comes to him. Let me clarify.
1. I don't think he is worth the crazy money we offered him and certainly not what the saints offer him.
2. I think his ruckwork (hitouts) is average at best, pittonet destroys him in that area.
3. I think his around the ground work is good but far from elite. I did some comparisons to Pittonet in all the key areas tackles, clearances,  marks, disposals etc and they were very similar.
4. His consistency and his ability to stay out in the park is a weakness, see point 1.

That being said...
- His athletic ability is elite.
- His potential is elite.
- If it's 'his day' people can't stop him.
- I picked him as my starting ruck in all of the best 22s we did last year from preseason to the end.

So he is very much a loss. A lot of that loss is a loss on what he could be. Some of that is comparing to what we have instead, in not talking about Pittonet, but 2nd ruck... Reidy or HOK, who should also be a potential kpf we rely on.

So compare tdk to what we have in his place.
Compare a dual Coleman medallist to what we have in his place.
Compare inspirational AA and former (co) captain to what we have in his place
Compare Jack(of all trades) to what we have in his place.

In each area, we are now lacking by comparison. That's 4 best 22 players we have downgraded in the offseason.

Sure some players we got in MAY be an upgrade on other positions, but these positions are less important by comparison.
So yes our hff and fp may be better in 2026 (tbc) but nobody is saying our ff will be better.  Will the ins cover for the outs? I say no. Time will tell.

What i can't understand is the blind faith in current recruiters and list management team.
Each individual pick/player you can make a case for. But as a collective i think they are fixated on the wrong areas and have been for years. The sheer amount of small forwards we have recruited and continue to recruit bother me no end. The constant recruiting to fill a need, confirms their previous efforts have failed as it continues to be a need.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #201


I hear you but I dont think you are being 100% honest because as recent as early in the year when many including myself wrote another season off when dropping the first batch of games you were always the one who seemed to find a way to stay positive and usually came up with a scenario were not all was lost. You were equally positive during the game threads and rarely conceded until there was no other option.

And you were not a massive fan of TDK so this big turn in your view seems mainly on the back of losing 2 players Charlie and Jack and not replacing a like for a like with them?

I don't blame you for saying enough is enough as you know I lost faith many years ago and had major doubts the current list holes were much bigger then many on here want to believe.

Its good that you point out that i was usually very positive, i am or at least was.
I find it amusing when people disagree with my opinions on the matter and say im just being negative, most are more negative than me.

re tdk...
A lot of people misunderstand me when it comes to him. Let me clarify.
1. I don't think he is worth the crazy money we offered him and certainly not what the saints offer him.
2. I think his ruckwork (hitouts) is average at best, pittonet destroys him in that area.
3. I think his around the ground work is good but far from elite. I did some comparisons to Pittonet in all the key areas tackles, clearances,  marks, disposals etc and they were very similar.
4. His consistency and his ability to stay out in the park is a weakness, see point 1.

That being said...
- His athletic ability is elite.
- His potential is elite.
- If it's 'his day' people can't stop him.
- I picked him as my starting ruck in all of the best 22s we did last year from preseason to the end.

So he is very much a loss. A lot of that loss is a loss on what he could be. Some of that is comparing to what we have instead, in not talking about Pittonet, but 2nd ruck... Reidy or HOK, who should also be a potential kpf we rely on.

So compare tdk to what we have in his place.
Compare a dual Coleman medallist to what we have in his place.
Compare inspirational AA and former (co) captain to what we have in his place
Compare Jack(of all trades) to what we have in his place.

In each area, we are now lacking by comparison. That's 4 best 22 players we have downgraded in the offseason.

Sure some players we got in MAY be an upgrade on other positions, but these positions are less important by comparison.
So yes our hff and fp may be better in 2026 (tbc) but nobody is saying our ff will be better.  Will the ins cover for the outs? I say no. Time will tell.

What i can't understand is the blind faith in current recruiters and list management team.
Each individual pick/player you can make a case for. But as a collective i think they are fixated on the wrong areas and have been for years. The sheer amount of small forwards we have recruited and continue to recruit bother me no end. The constant recruiting to fill a need, confirms their previous efforts have failed as it continues to be a need.

Fair enough.

The thing is when i see fans like yourself lose faith at the direction of the club it really hammers home we are miles off which is hard to bloody take.


Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #202
Fair enough.

The thing is when i see fans like yourself lose faith at the direction of the club it really hammers home we are miles off which is hard to bloody take.

Realistically if we have a blessed run with injuries we can still play finals.
With a bit of luck Kemp can kick 60 goals for the year. Harry can recapture his Coleman form and Jagga could win the rising star. 

However, 2 of them are coming back from a year off which they may not recover from our could reinjure themselves and the 3rd continues to suffer from mental demons in one form or another, so we may get nothing from all 3 and finish bottom 4.

That's why we play the season though because anything can happen.

Personally, i play the odds and option 2 is more likely than option 1.... looking at anyone who doesn't barrack for Carlton will confirm that.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #203


I hear you but I dont think you are being 100% honest because as recent as early in the year when many including myself wrote another season off when dropping the first batch of games you were always the one who seemed to find a way to stay positive and usually came up with a scenario were not all was lost. You were equally positive during the game threads and rarely conceded until there was no other option.

And you were not a massive fan of TDK so this big turn in your view seems mainly on the back of losing 2 players Charlie and Jack and not replacing a like for a like with them?

I don't blame you for saying enough is enough as you know I lost faith many years ago and had major doubts the current list holes were much bigger then many on here want to believe.

Its good that you point out that i was usually very positive, i am or at least was.
I find it amusing when people disagree with my opinions on the matter and say im just being negative, most are more negative than me.

re tdk...
A lot of people misunderstand me when it comes to him. Let me clarify.
1. I don't think he is worth the crazy money we offered him and certainly not what the saints offer him.
2. I think his ruckwork (hitouts) is average at best, pittonet destroys him in that area.
3. I think his around the ground work is good but far from elite. I did some comparisons to Pittonet in all the key areas tackles, clearances,  marks, disposals etc and they were very similar.
4. His consistency and his ability to stay out in the park is a weakness, see point 1.

That being said...
- His athletic ability is elite.
- His potential is elite.
- If it's 'his day' people can't stop him.
- I picked him as my starting ruck in all of the best 22s we did last year from preseason to the end.

So he is very much a loss. A lot of that loss is a loss on what he could be. Some of that is comparing to what we have instead, in not talking about Pittonet, but 2nd ruck... Reidy or HOK, who should also be a potential kpf we rely on.

So compare tdk to what we have in his place.
Compare a dual Coleman medallist to what we have in his place.
Compare inspirational AA and former (co) captain to what we have in his place
Compare Jack(of all trades) to what we have in his place.

In each area, we are now lacking by comparison. That's 4 best 22 players we have downgraded in the offseason.

Sure some players we got in MAY be an upgrade on other positions, but these positions are less important by comparison.
So yes our hff and fp may be better in 2026 (tbc) but nobody is saying our ff will be better.  Will the ins cover for the outs? I say no. Time will tell.

What i can't understand is the blind faith in current recruiters and list management team.
Each individual pick/player you can make a case for. But as a collective i think they are fixated on the wrong areas and have been for years. The sheer amount of small forwards we have recruited and continue to recruit bother me no end. The constant recruiting to fill a need, confirms their previous efforts have failed as it continues to be a need.

You're doing the 'one to one' thing again and you're talking the best of their ability
Charlie 'was' a Coleman medallist, he may yet be one again, but 2025 Charlie was nowhere near it.
Doc was cooked.
And 'Jack the Saint' struggles to put more than 2/3s of a season together.
TDK isn't even the best ruckman at St Kilda.
...and both the last two are going to miss big chunks of pre-season.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #204
What i find somewhat amusing is how so many of us fan opinions change dramatically once you form your own view as to how we are tracking as a club. All the 50/50s when your positive about our direction ‘are going to be great additions and upgrades’ and conversely when you’re not seeing it those same 50/50s are viewed as clear downgrades and negatives and the players we lost are based on their very best form as to what we lost.

And both sides can provide reasonable arguments why their view is more balanced then the other.

Its the same with politics.

Personally im ok with the changes as our hands were tied with all of the major ones but imo all things being equal more quality left then came in so im expecting 2026 to be a average year and a mid table finish. I think our next real chance is if the likes of Dean, campo bros, jagga and walker can all do what the ashcroft brothers did and explode on the scene all while the likes of cripps walsh weitering are all still in their peak.

Thats our hope imo to genuinely be a chance to snare a flag but we need 2-3 years before thats any chance of evenualating.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #205
What i find somewhat amusing is how so many of us fan opinions change dramatically once you form your own view as to how we are tracking as a club. All the 50/50s when your positive about our direction ‘are going to be great additions and upgrades’ and conversely when you’re not seeing it those same 50/50s are viewed as clear downgrades and negatives and the players we lost are based on their very best form as to what we lost.

And both sides can provide reasonable arguments why their view is more balanced then the other.

Its the same with politics.

Personally im ok with the changes as our hands were tied with all of the major ones but imo all things being equal more quality left then came in so im expecting 2026 to be a average year and a mid table finish. I think our next real chance is if the likes of Dean, campo bros, jagga and walker can all do what the ashcroft brothers did and explode on the scene all while the likes of cripps walsh weitering are all still in their peak.

Thats our hope imo to genuinely be a chance to snare a flag but we need 2-3 years before thats any chance of evenualating.

I think what you say is pretty right.
We adopt a position then everything, strengths and weaknesses of players, gets magnified through the lens of that particular bias.
I'm no means certain my optimism won't be shattered by a few injuries and a bit of bad luck...but gee we're overdue for a change in that aspect.
And in fact that's the key to my thinking.
If we can remain stable in terms of injury there is no reason why we should slip, even given the players we've lost.
Because their contribution to 2025 wasn't their elite form but a fraction of it due to injuries and perhaps as we may come to understand some significant turmoil in some of their off field lives that impacted on their decisions.

Perhaps a good activity for us all would be to take the opposite view to how we currently feel about 2026 and challenge ourselves to defend it with vigour...it might move the dial just a little bit towards the centre.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #206


Its good that you point out that i was usually very positive, i am or at least was.
I find it amusing when people disagree with my opinions on the matter and say im just being negative, most are more negative than me.

re tdk...
A lot of people misunderstand me when it comes to him. Let me clarify.
1. I don't think he is worth the crazy money we offered him and certainly not what the saints offer him.
2. I think his ruckwork (hitouts) is average at best, pittonet destroys him in that area.
3. I think his around the ground work is good but far from elite. I did some comparisons to Pittonet in all the key areas tackles, clearances,  marks, disposals etc and they were very similar.
4. His consistency and his ability to stay out in the park is a weakness, see point 1.

That being said...
- His athletic ability is elite.
- His potential is elite.
- If it's 'his day' people can't stop him.
- I picked him as my starting ruck in all of the best 22s we did last year from preseason to the end.

So he is very much a loss. A lot of that loss is a loss on what he could be. Some of that is comparing to what we have instead, in not talking about Pittonet, but 2nd ruck... Reidy or HOK, who should also be a potential kpf we rely on.

So compare tdk to what we have in his place.
Compare a dual Coleman medallist to what we have in his place.
Compare inspirational AA and former (co) captain to what we have in his place
Compare Jack(of all trades) to what we have in his place.

In each area, we are now lacking by comparison. That's 4 best 22 players we have downgraded in the offseason.

Sure some players we got in MAY be an upgrade on other positions, but these positions are less important by comparison.
So yes our hff and fp may be better in 2026 (tbc) but nobody is saying our ff will be better.  Will the ins cover for the outs? I say no. Time will tell.

What i can't understand is the blind faith in current recruiters and list management team.
Each individual pick/player you can make a case for. But as a collective i think they are fixated on the wrong areas and have been for years. The sheer amount of small forwards we have recruited and continue to recruit bother me no end. The constant recruiting to fill a need, confirms their previous efforts have failed as it continues to be a need.

You're doing the 'one to one' thing again and you're talking the best of their ability
Charlie 'was' a Coleman medallist, he may yet be one again, but 2025 Charlie was nowhere near it.
Doc was cooked.
And 'Jack the Saint' struggles to put more than 2/3s of a season together.
TDK isn't even the best ruckman at St Kilda.
...and both the last two are going to miss big chunks of pre-season.

I'm not doing the one to one thing again, I'm doing out vs in.  4 positions we got worse, 2 positions we got better. I don't know why you guys fight against that so much. Overall team cohesion will magically get better based off of that to create a net win... that's an argument i disagree with.

Charlie before he did his knee may never have reached the heights he did. Charlie in 2025 was cooked. Didn't have a preseason. Played through injury. We refused to drop him and key him recover. A common theme with us.

I don't care if tdk is 2nd ruck at saints, he was first ruck with us. Arguments like that are said to diminish his importance rather than acknowledge his loss.

Playing devils advocate, if all these players are so bad, why did they get record contract/ trade offers? Perhaps it's more about you, than them?

If all the players we got in are so good, who did clubs push them out the door for a discounted price?

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #207


You're doing the 'one to one' thing again and you're talking the best of their ability
Charlie 'was' a Coleman medallist, he may yet be one again, but 2025 Charlie was nowhere near it.
Doc was cooked.
And 'Jack the Saint' struggles to put more than 2/3s of a season together.
TDK isn't even the best ruckman at St Kilda.
...and both the last two are going to miss big chunks of pre-season.

I'm not doing the one to one thing again, I'm doing out vs in.  4 positions we got worse, 2 positions we got better. I don't know why you guys fight against that so much. Overall team cohesion will magically get better based off of that to create a net win... that's an argument i disagree with.

Charlie before he did his knee may never have reached the heights he did. Charlie in 2025 was cooked. Didn't have a preseason. Played through injury. We refused to drop him and key him recover. A common theme with us.

I don't care if tdk is 2nd ruck at saints, he was first ruck with us. Arguments like that are said to diminish his importance rather than acknowledge his loss.

Playing devils advocate, if all these players are so bad, why did they get record contract/ trade offers? Perhaps it's more about you, than them?

If all the players we got in are so good, who did clubs push them out the door for a discounted price?

What I'm arguing with is that you are looking at the 'best' of these players and arguing what we've lost means we will slip further down the ladder.
But if Tom, Charlie and Jack, had played at that level (their best) for a whole season I'm pretty sure we would have finished better than eleventh.
Even 50-60 goals from Charlie would have made a difference.

TDK is a loss, but it's a loss of a certain type of ruckman and we still have Pittonet who shaded him in ruck work, and O'Keefe (who is a probably a better ruck forward) who will more than likely improve....and Reidy who was behind a couple of pretty good rucks at Freo but played some very good football at the WAFL level, to consider...so net loss for TDK not so much.

So we have to look at their 2025 output when deciding whether or not their loss is as significant as you claim.
We only have to replace their 2025 efforts to maintain our position or do better.

Now that's even before we consider the season losses of Newman, Kemp and Jagga.
Add the loss of O'Farrell when he was just starting to show the goods.
Then consider Harry and his issues...the distraction that was Elijah.

You can't see how we're going to be as good as 11th
I can't see how we're going to be worse.
So best we agree to disgree.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #208
If you go back a little further to 2024 when we had our run and looked the best we have since 2000 it was on the back of Cripps, TDK and Curnow.
The latter two got injured and we fell off a cliff.




2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #209


I'm not doing the one to one thing again, I'm doing out vs in.  4 positions we got worse, 2 positions we got better. I don't know why you guys fight against that so much. Overall team cohesion will magically get better based off of that to create a net win... that's an argument i disagree with.

Charlie before he did his knee may never have reached the heights he did. Charlie in 2025 was cooked. Didn't have a preseason. Played through injury. We refused to drop him and key him recover. A common theme with us.

I don't care if tdk is 2nd ruck at saints, he was first ruck with us. Arguments like that are said to diminish his importance rather than acknowledge his loss.

Playing devils advocate, if all these players are so bad, why did they get record contract/ trade offers? Perhaps it's more about you, than them?

If all the players we got in are so good, who did clubs push them out the door for a discounted price?

What I'm arguing with is that you are looking at the 'best' of these players and arguing what we've lost means we will slip further down the ladder.
But if Tom, Charlie and Jack, had played at that level (their best) for a whole season I'm pretty sure we would have finished better than eleventh.
Even 50-60 goals from Charlie would have made a difference.

TDK is a loss, but it's a loss of a certain type of ruckman and we still have Pittonet who shaded him in ruck work, and O'Keefe (who is a probably a better ruck forward) who will more than likely improve....and Reidy who was behind a couple of pretty good rucks at Freo but played some very good football at the WAFL level, to consider...so net loss for TDK not so much.

So we have to look at their 2025 output when deciding whether or not their loss is as significant as you claim.
We only have to replace their 2025 efforts to maintain our position or do better.

Now that's even before we consider the season losses of Newman, Kemp and Jagga.
Add the loss of O'Farrell when he was just starting to show the goods.
Then consider Harry and his issues...the distraction that was Elijah.

You can't see how we're going to be as good as 11th
I can't see how we're going to be worse.
So best we agree to disgree.
TDKs main value was that of an extra midfielder, those other players don't come close to what he offered around the ground and its essentially why he got offered the big money.