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Topic: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond (Read 15468 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #105 –
Lord CBA's
Voss R0 to R5:  13%
Voss's Last 3:  61%
Under Fraser:  0%

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #106 –
Back to the game, 1 change for this week:
In: Dean
Out: Young (inj)
The Ox is slow but I'm running out of patience.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #107 –
Quote from: Sexybronco – on
Back to the game, 1 change for this week:
In: Dean
Out: Young (inj)

Post it in the pre game thread SB ;)  :D

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #108 –
Quote from: Shakin77 – on
Quote from: kruddler – on
Cmon Shakin, if it was as simple as 1 thing, then Voss and the club is an idiot.

But those who are anti-voss are making it out as if there was only 1 change that 'solved' everything, Fraser. Surely you can see that is not true.

Fixture, IMO, is the most important factor.
Cripps' form is not a coincidence. Our best 2 games under voss was the 2 games Cripps got votes....and he has votes in every game since.

So ignoring those 2 things, which Fraser boosters continue to do, is my gripe.
Similarly, people gave Fraser credit for bringing George back, playing Wilson, playing Harry in the ruck.....all occured before he took over.

Credit where credit is due, sure.
I've got no issue with Fraser. I've got issues with people proclaiming he can walk on water and has the midas touch.

In terms of your CBA's, can you include the figures for Lord?

IMO thats been a huge difference.
I copped some flack for questioning his long term future and him being too similar to our better mids.
Initially i think he was playing a wing role that Cerra took over. He was playing midfield when we gave him a chance to lock it down with George out of the side. Eventually, Lord was forced out of the side through injury and hasn't (as yet) returned to the seniors, despite going ok in the 2's.

There is a lot of cause and effect, and correlation, and people not understanding the difference.

Just looking at Jagga for an example, he started in the midfield. Then plenty were suggested he looked tired and sore and might need a run in the 2's. Was moved out of the guts at the same time. Got himself back up to speed and was moved back in as a result.
Is that Fraser being a genuis? Is it Voss looking after his young player so he doesn't break him??




You've got me wrong.

I actually thought we were doing a lot right under Michael Voss, and that our results were often a poor reflection of where we were as a football club.

The frustration was that under Voss we could play brilliant football for a half, then follow it up with football that looked like Under 12s at Diamond Creek.

Unfortunately, I think Voss will be remembered as the coach who couldn't stop momentum swings. This wasn't just a three-game issue or even a one-season issue. You said it yourself when you told your son to pick any score worm from the last 24 months—you'll almost always find a Voss-coached Carlton side conceding multiple unanswered goals.

Our worst performances this season highlighted that perfectly:

Second half vs Sydney
Second half vs Richmond (Round 1)
Second half vs Melbourne
Last quarter vs North Melbourne
Second half vs St Kilda
Round 13 vs Essendon
Round 17 vs Richmond

We all knew this was the issue that had to be fixed. We had an entire pre-season to address it, only to dish up the same thing again and again. Fast starts, no finish.

So now we're meant to believe we suddenly flicked a switch over the last three games and solved it?

I agree Voss leaving acted as a circuit breaker, but history tells us these sugar hits can be short-lived.

I liked Voss as a communicator and a leader. Where I was less convinced was his tactical coaching. Too often he struggled to stop opposition momentum or adjust during games, and I thought he was regularly beaten in the coaches' box. I was hoping the club would bring in someone like Adam Simpson to complement him with that tactical layer, but it never really happened.

Now, the wins over Geelong, the Western Bulldogs, plus away victories against Port Adelaide and GWS are all quality wins. They were games we weren't expected to win. The match committee deserves plenty of credit, particularly for responding when both Geelong and GWS got on top after we'd built healthy leads. Those are exactly the sort of games we would have lost previously.

Was the old game plan simply too taxing? Why couldn't we consistently run games out under Voss?

Under Josh Fraser we're clearly playing differently. We're less contest-focused, we retain possession more, and we're generating more metres gained by both hand and foot. Whether people think the changes are significant or subtle doesn't really matter—the numbers are what they are. They're not made up to annoy LP.

The game style has changed.

Harry McKay is probably the best example. If you're Michael Voss, you'd be wondering where this version of Harry has come from. After nine rounds, his season looked like it was heading towards "trade him for a late second-round pick." Since then, he's completely turned it around. Is it confidence? A different role? Better ball movement? Probably a combination of all three. He's just one example of several small changes that seem to have injected more energy into the side and allowed us to apply pressure for longer.

Now, could it simply be that:

George Hewett was dropped and got the kick up the backside he needed?
Patrick Cripps is finally fully fit?
The fixture has been favourable, with Richmond, Essendon and West Coast all struggling?
Cerra moving to the wing, along with the Ainsworth and Smith changes, were already Voss ideas?

Absolutely. All of those factors have played a part.

I'm somewhere in the middle.

But to suggest there have been no changes in the way we're playing, or that the game style is exactly the same, is ridiculous in my opinion. Whether those changes are subtle or significant is open for debate, but pretending they don't exist ignores what we're seeing on the field and what the statistics are telling us.

Couple things....

1. re Harry....biggest change was getting moved into 2nd ruck roll. The same thing that rejuvinated him previously. Same thing plenty on here were suggesting happen.
Harry seems to get in his own head when left to shiver up forward. Keeping him in the contest up the ground as a ruck does him the world of good. Yes, that (re)started under Voss

2. Are we meant to believe 3 weeks flicked a switch?
Yes. It was said by every man and his dog, including Voss, Fraser, Wright and Davies....and the players.
This is not my words, this has come from the club. You don't want to believe, nothing i can do to change your mind.

Nobody is doubted there was problems.
Nobody is doubted there were fadeouts.
The devil is in the detail as to when things changed.
Plenty of people were absolutely wrapped with our performance against the lions and saying that should be the new standard......it has been.
Vossy's timing couldn't have been worse, announcing his departure to the club before the game that turned our season around.

Again, i want to stress that i've got no issue with Fraser as coach.

My eagerness to back up Voss and explain our season turnaround is to highlight that it is 100% possible that our turnaround is not because of Fraser. Appointing Fraser (like Teague before him) simply because results improved in the meantime could actually hurt the club long term.

I've had long discussions with Lods about 'the sky is falling' comments in regards to this years expectations. That always came with the  - I expect results to improve by staying the course, its just a matter of when. I think it'll be a year, perhaps 2, but it may turn sooner
Does that mean we've turned the corner already? No, but there are a few things that have fast tracked that and exceeded everyones expectations. Namely Jagga and Dean. Hands up anyone who thought they would be 2 of the top 3 in the rising star betting at this stage? They have exceeded all expectations and definitely fast tracking this turnaround.

Ultimately my argument is this.
Don't get sucked into W/L results and appoint Fraser without going through a proper process and analysing the situation and the resons for the turnaround. Doing so is wrong.
That doesn't mean Fraser isn't the best......just don't use the W/L column as justification.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #109 –
I predicted us to be bottom 4 and was happy that we were competitive even when we were 1-8.

Obviously happy with the "turn around" but not getting carried away until we either win this week or next.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #110 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
I predicted us to be bottom 4 and was happy that we were competitive even when we were 1-8.

Obviously happy with the "turn around" but not getting carried away until we either win this week or next.

This week, sure.
Next week, no.
We almost beat them with 17 blokes....i expect to win that this time with 18.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #111 –
With regards to the pre-season expectations (and discussions)
If we match our last season tally of 9 wins or go better.
I wont be doing the I told you so's
Let's call it a draw.

It's a pretty convoluted sort of season.
We've played some excellent football when we've lost...and played some ordinary football when we've won.

I actually think the rest of the year is going to be pretty tough.
I expect no more than we'll end up about the same as last year in terms of wins (maybe one or two more) or ladder position (maybe one or two rungs lower).

The rest of the season will give us a true idea of where we sit going into 2027.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #112 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
2. Are we meant to believe 3 weeks flicked a switch?
Yes. It was said by every man and his dog, including Voss, Fraser, Wright and Davies....and the players.
This is not my words, this has come from the club. You don't want to believe, nothing i can do to change your mind.

You have mentioned this a few times. 

But I wouldnt hold any weight to these comments.  I mean what do you expect these guys to say?    They like Voss.  The players liked Voss.   He is a likeable person.   The bloke has just been given the arse.  Why would anyone speak poorly of him?   For what purpose?   He did some good things and lets celebrate them but lets not speak ill of the departed.   It would be a poor look

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #113 –
Quote from: Shakin77 – on
Quote from: kruddler – on
2. Are we meant to believe 3 weeks flicked a switch?
Yes. It was said by every man and his dog, including Voss, Fraser, Wright and Davies....and the players.
This is not my words, this has come from the club. You don't want to believe, nothing i can do to change your mind.

You have mentioned this a few times. 

But I wouldnt hold any weight to these comments.  I mean what do you expect these guys to say?    They like Voss.  The players liked Voss.   He is a likeable person.   The bloke has just been given the arse.  Why would anyone speak poorly of him?   For what purpose?   He did some good things and lets celebrate them but lets not speak ill of the departed.   It would be a poor look

Ok so lets ride your train of thought and assume everyone complety made it up, ill even borrow LPs tin foil hat for the journey, how do you explain all the statiatical evidence that was floated at the time showing a shift in oir game plan? Did we conspire with the media as well and champion data as well?


Failing all that, just have a look at the brisbane game and how we played.

I even made a comment the week after saying that i saw no difference from the brisbane game to the dogs game apart from the opposition and others agreed.

But if you wanna put it all down to fraser and the circuit breaker, be my guest, i wont be agreeing with you. Ill back the clubs comments, the statistical evidence and my own eyes instead.
 

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #114 –
Often the movement of one player depends on the form of another, just one player rising or falling can have a cascading effect.

Fans tend to look at the end result and identify it as the cause, but often the cause is something that happened much earlier in the background. An example hypothesis, maybe it was shifts in the form of McGovern, Kemp, Dean and Newman, and maybe Kemp and McGovern improving in F50, is caused by the contribution and eventual integration of Hayward, Florent, Evans and Ainsworth. That ultimately enable McKay to spend more time in the ruck, a cascade of small steps leads to a better overall outcome. I'd assert my hypothesis is much closer to reality than the "Fraser did it!" crew!

It's not lost on me that earlier in the season a lot of fans on here declared Hayward, Ainsworth and Florent a bust, many of the same critics are now Fraser boosters. Fans that cited poor disposal, bad decision making, errors, etc., etc., etc. as the reason for a bust. But it was obvious to anyone watching they were all winning plenty of footy, doing so surrounded by what at AFL standard was effectively a crew of strangers, a new team! Halfway through the season, it's all changed, and apparently "Fraser did it!"

It's not the single big miracle move that fans cling to, they see that after the fact, it's a bunch of small incremental changes over weeks that leads to the ultimate outcome.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"