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Topic: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G (Read 10373 times) previous topic - next topic
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AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

I was sure that we already had a thread for this game but I can't find it.

One change for us; Nick Haynes comes in for Wade Derksen who has been demoted to emergency.

Wade is stiff to miss out but Melbourne relies on its small and medium forwards - as well as Gawn drifting forward.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

Reply #1 –
Quote from: DJC – on
I was sure that we already had a thread for this game but I can't find it.

One change for us; Nick Haynes comes in for Wade Derksen who has been demoted to emergency.

Wade is stiff to miss out but Melbourne relies on its small and medium forwards - as well as Gawn drifting forward.

Yep, understandable. Keeping Lewis Y in the side is also a good move.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

Reply #2 –
No Jake Lever and no Christian Salem, and Jack Viney playing his first game of the year.

Re: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

Reply #3 –
No Hayward?
Derksen was a bit rough,  did everything asked of him so far.
2025... Moir of the same to come

Re: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

Reply #4 –
Quote from: BluePhantom – on
No Hayward?
Derksen was a bit rough,  did everything asked of him so far.
Yep, team first selection means good players will be stiff to miss. Retaining Lewis Young is a great example off picking the best team for the opposition.
The Ox is slow but I'm running out of patience.

Re: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

Reply #5 –
Our line-up:

B:   2 Lachlan Cowan   23 Jacob Weitering   4 Oliver Hollands
HB:   15 Billy Wilson   35 Harry Dean   26 Nick Haynes
C:   13 Blake Acres   9 Patrick Cripps   5 Adam Cerra
HF:   12 Ben Ainsworth   11 Mitch McGovern   44 Francis Evans
F:   36 Cooper Lord   10 Harry McKay   39 Talor Byrne
R:   27 Marc Pittonet   18 Sam Walsh   7 Jagga Smith
Int:   14 Oliver Florent   29 George Hewett   33 Lewis Young   17 Brodie Kemp   46 Matthew Cottrell
Em:   47 Wade Derksen   30 Jack Ison   25 Liam Reidy

[1] Derksen a bit stiff, but, if we win, he'll probably get another chance. He's done everything he could.

[2] Interesting to see Reidy as an Emergency. Especially as Melbourne have named Heath as an emergency. What are they trying to tell us?

[3] Have we matched up? Melbourne are structurally different to us. Hopefully, our forwards can do the job.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

Reply #6 –
Quote from: BluePhantom – on
Derksen was a bit rough,  did everything asked of him so far.
Derksen had a couple of ordinary halfs in the last two games, that's cost him.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

Reply #7 –
Melbourne has gone with a very short team.  Their average height is around 186cm to our 188cm (and Gawn’s 209cm is a significant outlier).

Melbourne has six players who are 190cm or taller and we have ten.  Melbourne has one player over 200cm and we have three.

Now, the old saying is that it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.  Countering that is the maxim, a good big man will always beat a good small man and, all things being equal, that’s true.  Dean vs Pickett should mean that Dean wins around seven out of ten contests, but Kosi’s three wins could result in three goals.

Then there’s the old adage about tall players not getting any shorter as the game goes on.  While that’s true too, good ball delivery can negate a height advantage.

All that waffle boils down to us having a significant height advantage, but that advantage will only make a difference if we play to the best of our ability.



"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

Reply #8 –
The only reason to pick Viney would be to line somebody up wrecking ball style.

1st game for 2026 and they have lost KPPs
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

Reply #9 –
Ison, Derkson and Reidy the emergencies.

What happens if we need to replace a small at the last minute???

Re: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

Reply #10 –
^^ Ison is a good mix of tall and small. 
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

Reply #11 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
Quote from: DJC – on
I was sure that we already had a thread for this game but I can't find it.

One change for us; Nick Haynes comes in for Wade Derksen who has been demoted to emergency.

Wade is stiff to miss out but Melbourne relies on its small and medium forwards - as well as Gawn drifting forward.

Yep, understandable. Keeping Lewis Y in the side is also a good move.

Derksen doesn't deserve to be dropped but credit to Lewis Young (and the need for a back-up ruck) for turning his season/career around under Fraser.

Re: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

Reply #12 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
^^ Ison is a good mix of tall and small.

My thoughts too Thry!

We also have enough players who can play tall or small to cover most eventualities.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

Reply #13 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
^^ Ison is a good mix of tall and small. 

Yep despite his height Ison can play the small role if necessary.
He's been going along steadily in the VFL, but often he's doing that special bit of play that indicates he'll be a really good one with an extra season or two.

I wouldn't be too concerned if any of our emergencies got a game
It's a good mix.

Jack can cover midsize and smalls
Derksen forward or back.

Reidy's the interesting one...given the Gawn factor.

Re: AFL First Wildcard Final 2026 Pre Game Predictions Carlton vs Melbourne at the G

Reply #14 –
Can I sell a MCC visitors tix, anyone?