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Topic: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications (Read 4232 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #75 –
Haynes out is a big loss.  Been very good for us.  Feeling less confident without him back there as he is one of those quiet achievers who finds himself in the right place at the right time.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #76 –
Quote from: crashlander – on
[4] Who do we play on Stewart? I would love to have someone to play through, to keep him defending.

I would try Derksen on Stewart.  He's agile and good enough in the air to keep Stewart too busy to zone off.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #77 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Haynes out is a big loss.  Been very good for us.  Feeling less confident without him back there as he is one of those quiet achievers who finds himself in the right place at the right time.

100% 3 Leos, plus no stranger to finals pressure AND performing at a high level in finals. Fortunately, Deano and Weiters have shown they can handle finals pressure too, can they step up another notch?
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #78 –
Quote from: DJC – on

I would try Derksen on Stewart.  He's agile and good enough in the air to keep Stewart too busy to zone off.
Yes, that's a strategy worth trying, sometimes in finals it's the unexpected that gets a result, like The Hyphen to CHB.

I suspect they've brought the extra running numbers in because they want us to be run off our feet like the 1st-1/2 of the season, hopefully we can bring our A-Game momentum control and maximise F50 entries while not turning it over too much. They have a few players who are 50/50 injury wise, when we get the pill at the appropriate moment we need to go berserk and have them running off their feet to chase us.

Between Weiters, Dersksen and Young having Cameron get the pill well outside range will be a win if we can create that scenario.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #79 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Quote from: crashlander – on
[4] Who do we play on Stewart? I would love to have someone to play through, to keep him defending.

I would try Derksen on Stewart.  He's agile and good enough in the air to keep Stewart too busy to zone off.

In our last game against the Pussycats -- not that it's all that relevant -- Stewart went to Flynn Y who got off the leash and kicked a few!
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #80 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Just on Byrner's "bad game" - it's hard to have an impact when you're sitting on the pine (do they still have pine benches?).

He did OK while he was on the ground, particularly with the pressure he applied.

We'll miss Haynes' reliability and cool head but Derker is a more than adequate replacement.

De Koning out for the Cats is unexpected but Blicavs probably provides more versatility.  Sending Lewis Young forward might stretch Geelong's backs who will match up quite well with our smaller forward line.  Hayward would have been handy but it is what it is.

Yep, a deeper dive into The Byrner's game against the Go Dees, as a number of commentators noted, was that he seemed overawed -- understandable -- in the first half making uncustomary mistakes, but found much better form in the second half.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #81 –
Haynes is a massive out.  Derkson to make Stewart accountable seems logical move. Cats have gone for more pace as well.
DrE is no more... you ok with that harmonica man?

Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #82 –
have we consider the weather rather bring in another quick more aerobic type of player

Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #83 –
I find solace in the fact Derksen's marking has been substantially more reliable in D50 than F50.

Last week we had the fumbles, but we genuinely outplayed the Dees, the fumbles kept the Dees in it due to their efficiency scoring from entries / turnovers.

Our fumbling was mostly coming from our Forwards and Mids, our D50 was pretty reliable when given opportunity to get to the pill. If we fail to slow the opposition our D50 can do very little about it.

Surely we do not see Gov, Evans, Byrne, Kemp and Harry drop so many marks two weeks in a row, surely Smith, Walsh, Hewett and Cripps are cleaner this week!

I hope that result was the cure we need across the park to be more assured in the contest from any position on the ground!

After 1/2-time we were better everywhere.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #84 –
We lost a lot of Flexibility with Haynes.  He was tall enough to pinch hit if we ended up having to shuffle the magnets and release a tall to another role.  He was genuinely able to play on a wing as well with good aerobic capacity. 

From the remainders, if we had to choose a bit of a tweener type, it would have been Ison.

Emergencies list Boyd, Ison and Reiddy.   Boyd wouldnt be a bad selection.  Has played finals, is a running type, and has decent capability with ball in hand.  Umpires seem to hate him though and he infringes a lot for borderline stuff.  He has also been out of favour a bit. 

The interchange lists Wilson, Hewett, Young, Evans and Cotters suggesting if the change were to occur and its a tall out, it would be Lewis Young.

Personally Young for Boyd is neither here nor there.  We definately don't want Reiddy in.  Ison is the one who probably would execute better in the conditions, and more capable of being a game winner.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #85 –
The chance of significant rain before 10pm is only slight, the chance of a tiny amount before 10pm is high. It'll be just enough to make it greasy but it should not be enough to affect field kicking or disposal. It's going to be windy, the G dries and soaks up moisture like a sponge.

Given we are perceived to be slower than Geelong a little rain slowing their disposal might actually assist us in applying pressure. The trick will be to remain clean with the footy.

The bigger problem for us is the wind, if it gets gusty the possession game is naturally harder to maintain.

Expect Dangerflog to be in Hyper Uber Accident Mode, just greasy enough for him to claim "I Slipped"!

How many Stops Up style marking attempts will be allowed against us this weekend, we suffered a barrage of them in recent weeks without a single free kick that I can recall? Can you imagine the furore if someone like Harry did that to Stewart?
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #86 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
We lost a lot of Flexibility with Haynes.  He was tall enough to pinch hit if we ended up having to shuffle the magnets and release a tall to another role.  He was genuinely able to play on a wing as well with good aerobic capacity. 

From the remainders, if we had to choose a bit of a tweener type, it would have been Ison.

Emergencies list Boyd, Ison and Reiddy.   Boyd wouldnt be a bad selection.  Has played finals, is a running type, and has decent capability with ball in hand.  Umpires seem to hate him though and he infringes a lot for borderline stuff.  He has also been out of favour a bit. 

The interchange lists Wilson, Hewett, Young, Evans and Cotters suggesting if the change were to occur and its a tall out, it would be Lewis Young.

Personally Young for Boyd is neither here nor there.  We definately don't want Reiddy in.  Ison is the one who probably would execute better in the conditions, and more capable of being a game winner.

One of our strengths is our versatility: Derksen, McGovern, Kemp and Young can all play forward or back.  Dean, McGovern, Kemp and Cowan can all play on tall or small opponents - Cowan played on Cameron last time we met.  Hollands, Cottrell, Cerra and Wilson can play forward, back or wing and Lord and Hewett can play inside mid or run with roles.  Bringing in one of the emergencies would reduce our versatility if anything and I can't see that happening, unless it's a forced change.  If so, I would opt for a like for like change rather than altering the balance we have now.

The forecast is for showers increasing from 4pm but with only 1-5mm expected from then until tomorrow morning.  There's no sign of rain at our place (west of Melbourne) and the BOM radar shows light rain to the west of Ballarat.  Unless we get a freak rain cell, I can't see the weather playing much part in the result.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #87 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Quote from: crashlander – on
[4] Who do we play on Stewart? I would love to have someone to play through, to keep him defending.

I would try Derksen on Stewart.  He's agile and good enough in the air to keep Stewart too busy to zone off.
Stewart will wipe the floor with Derksen.
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership
2026-Slow start, we can kick after all, why not?

Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #88 –
In his presser after we beat Geelong in Rd 12, Scott was asked about our recent good record against the Cats.  He denied being aware that we had won three of the four previous games and dismissed the question as irrelevant.  In his pre-game presser, Scott spent quite a bit of time discussing our recent good form against them.  He quite rightly made the point that our win in 2023 was irrelevant but conceded that Rd 12 was relevant, although both teams were playing better now.

All in all, it was a fairly open and wide ranging presser and very different to when he's sooking after a loss  :)
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball
 

Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #89 –
Getting excited! First Blues final I'll have been to.  Train is pretty full and there aren't many cats on it!

Do what we've been doing and I reckon we'll be OK. Go Blues!