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Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #5085 –
We probably need to wait for the "shenanigans" to be worked through before we can breathe easy.
;)
And you can bet there will be "shenanigans" ::)  ::)

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #5086 –
The initial expectation is that the US will head towards recession, if that happens the RBA might have already shot itself in the foot and over-corrected, it's why some thought no change was the best option.

But the good news for investors would be markets, in particular it might signal the bottom of the market for housing is right now, although I've heard some describe the coming months in housing as a dead cat bounce.

A problem Australia has is that homeowners aren't dynamic enough, they tend to not shop around for the cheapest rates, which allows the big the banks to ride out the storm and still post big profits. Maybe that changes in the AI era.

I expect super to take a hit, a lot of Aussie super is heavily invested in the USA, and it's likely a US recession will impact growth. But this is where self-managed super can have a big influence, because if they think the market is close to bottoming out they could flood back into the domestic property market. At the moment there is a swing towards commercial over residential, but a US recession would probably be bad for that segment. Chasing growth can be a double edged sword.

What odds Aussie Politicians swing back to loving China?
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #5087 –
The amount of money wasted in these elections should be declared an international crime against humanity. Not just elections, but even billionaires in California have spent ridiculous amounts pushing back against the proposition that they should be a one off wealth tax. Naturally the billionaire push back is fully supported by Democrat and friend-of-the-people Newsom.

Giving the money to people who really need it is obviously far too woke and laughably absurd for these types.

With any luck, Leon With Dyslexia can fast track his colony on Mars, and take these disgraceful scumbags with him.

The planet is already f#$cked, but at least we can enjoy our final moments in peace.

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #5088 –
The Walls St reaction says it all, you read whatever meaning you like into it, but it's not just one factor that has contributed to this and the blame sits on all sides. They made hay while the rule book was in the bin, and now there is going to be a price for some to pay.

It is a tell about the predictions on the future direction of US policy and fiscal restraint, Walls St trades on tomorrow not yesterday. Yesterday cannot be changed and means little to nothing for traders.

There is one thing you can predict with ultimate accuracy, greed.

And the opportunistic headlines are already appearing about China alliances, not even 24hrs has passed!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #5089 –
The US system of government may be antiquated, anachronistic, and far from a model of representative democracy but it is a lot more entertaining, and a lot more scary, than our relatively boring commonwealth system.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #5090 –
Materially has anything changed?

Congress has more power and scope to block Trump, but not necessarily if he is operating within the boundaries he is allowed to, and ultimately the USA is a united entity, not anit trumpist.  They wont simply flip flop because the midterms have swung, it will take a new sitting president for that to be the case, and even then, they make too many flacid moves, and the public will turn on the democrats calling them week.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #5091 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Materially has anything changed?

Congress has more power and scope to block Trump, but not necessarily if he is operating within the boundaries he is allowed to, and ultimately the USA is a united entity, not anit trumpist.  They wont simply flip flop because the midterms have swung, it will take a new sitting president for that to be the case, and even then, they make too many flacid moves, and the public will turn on the democrats calling them week.
They gained a level of power over investigation and protections.

But it's true they won't act in the way the media report, they aren't going to shot themself in the foot, the reports of political revenge are vastly overstated.

What will likely happen is those decisions that lead to RedTrump's protection and exemption from accountability will go away, and his efforts or ability to persecute opponents will be greatly diminished, and those efforts it won't be funded by congress like they have in the past. he has to pay his own way now, and his family will be held accountable. But it won't be clean, it will be messy, because this isn't a shock, the RedTrump team would have been planning for this from the very start.

Why is he glum, because he has been kicked from the trough!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #5092 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Materially has anything changed?

Congress has more power and scope to block Trump, but not necessarily if he is operating within the boundaries he is allowed to, and ultimately the USA is a united entity, not anit trumpist.  They wont simply flip flop because the midterms have swung, it will take a new sitting president for that to be the case, and even then, they make too many flacid moves, and the public will turn on the democrats calling them week.

As I wrote earlier
Quote from: DJC – on
The ... Democrats will control the House and the Senate.  That means they can end the war with Iran, repeal Taco's tariffs, investigate the financial dealings of Taco and his family, restrict Taco's use of the National Guard, increase aid to Ukraine, and commence the impeachment process.

Taco can vetoe any laws passed by Congress and he can still issue executive orders.  However, Congress can overturn a vetoe with a two-thirds majority vote in both Houses.  Congress can legislate to block an executive order and, as Congress controls expenditure, it can refuse to allocate funds necessary for an executive order to be carried out.  The last point is relevant for the Iran war; Congress can freeze funding for the war.

The most worrying things for Taco will be Congress investigating his affairs, forcing the release of the Epstein files, and the commencement of impeachment proceedings.  The Democrats have also indicated that they intend to have Whiskey Pete removed from office.  However, it seems that Taco may save them the effort.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #5093 –
After several years of unhinged unregulated profiteering and insider trading the Walls St billionaires are throwing a tantrum, that is what we are seeing at the moment.

It will be interesting to see the short and long term effects of this, the media will blame the politicians but of course the media is owned by the billionaires. How brave or belligerent will the billionaires become, it's going to be interesting.

Compared to any country's economy, even billionaires and trillionaires are just a drop in the bucket, but ego prevents them seeing that!

The echo chamber is cracked, the rats are fleeing before the ship sinks entirely.

What Joe Average thinks of when hearing discussions on deregulation, is not the same thing that is thought of by the likes of Gina Rinehart. The freedom the billionaire cries for is not freedom for Joe Average at all, it's closer to fiscal slavery.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #5094 –
Quote from: LP – on
After several years of unhinged unregulated profiteering and insider trading the Walls St billionaires are throwing a tantrum, that is what we are seeing at the moment.

It will be interesting to see the short and long term effects of this, the media will blame the politicians but of course the media is owned by the billionaires. How brave or belligerent will the billionaires become, it's going to be interesting.

Compared to any country's economy, even billionaires and trillionaires are just a drop in the bucket, but ego prevents them seeing that!

The echo chamber is cracked, the rats are fleeing before the ship sinks entirely.

What Joe Average thinks of when hearing discussions on deregulation, is not the same thing that is thought of by the likes of Gina Rinehart. The freedom the billionaire cries for is not freedom for Joe Average at all, it's closer to fiscal slavery.
Historically, post mid terms, a split house leads to a green day on the stocks (this happened yesterday).  Today was a predictable sell off, and consequently we are seeing similar on the ASX.

Its all gamesmanship. 

The big money sells the majority to other big money.  Often at a loss, to offset a win, and its all there as a giant tax dodge, to ensure you continue making money.

I wouldnt read too much into it, only ones that get burned are retail investors.  Once you know the game, you sleep easier at night, and it also helps you spot buying opportunities for stocks artificially depressed.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #5095 –
You will also see it move in 4 week cycles.  In a bullish market trend, 3 weeks of green, followed by a week of red.  In a bearish market, 3 weeks of red, with a week of green.  In a mix condition market (what we see now) 3 green days a week, 2 red days a week, with the odd weeks of green, and the odd weeks of red. 

Its all based on sentiment, not actuals.  Look at companies who have the key performance indicators being good, and a public negative sentiment, and you will find your buying opportunities.  There are some that are genuinely too big to fail too, but those prices remain bouyant.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #5096 –
Apart from the resounding repudiation of Taco and MAGA, the US mid-terms and gubernatorial elections have seen a remarkable number of firsts:

Keisha Lance Bottoms is the first ever black woman elected governor (Georgia).
Gina Hojosa is the first Latina elected governor of Texas.
Chris Pappas is the first openly gay man elected to the Senate.
Xavier Bacerra is the first Latino elected governor of California.
Byron Donalds is the first black governor of Florida.
David Crowley is the first black governor of Wisconsin.
Abdul El-Sayed is the first Muslim elected to the Senate.
Deb Haaland is the first ever Native American woman elected governor (New Mexico).
Peggy Flanagan is first ever Native American elected to the Senate.
Amy Acton is the first woman elected governor of Ohio (yes, Ohio is a State despite Donny jnr's claims).
Amy Klobuchar is the first woman elected governor of Minnesota.
Marsha Blackburn is the first woman elected governor of Tennessee.
Juliana Stratton's election makes Illinois the first State to be represented by two women of colour in the Senate.
Aaron Ford is the first black governor of Nevada.
Annie Andrews is the first woman elected to the Senate from South Carolina.
Claire Valdez is first Native American woman elected to Congress from New York.
Adam Hanaway is the first Muslim elected to Congress from New Jersey.
James Talarico is the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas since 1988.
More than 100 women were elected to serve in the 120th Congress.
Hakeem Jeffries is likely to become the first black Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Given the overt misogyny, racism, bigotry and Islamophobia of Taco's administration and his MAGA cult, these are unexpected but very welcome firsts.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball
 

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #5097 –
RedTrump, working harder for DEI and Ethnic Minorities than any US President has ever done before! ;D
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #5098 –
"Believe me, im revolutionary, and made it all possible.  Look how great I am, I am the greatest sitting president of the USA, ever. "

LOL :D:D:D

"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson