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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #360 –
Quote from: Tragic – on
I hope you make it through OK Prof.
Ditto, that's tough having 30 years of
building a business ripped out from underneath you. Unlike Dangerfield and crew I  think most in the community with jobs would be happy to pay a bit more in taxes to help those like Prof get back on their feet. Banks and other finance institutions have to cut those struggling with businesses some slack too.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #361 –
I'm calling it early - the virus has peaked here in Australia...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

New cases in the country yesterday only 130 - and the graph up to yesterday of new cases show a flattening then decline. Of course, new deaths always lags news cases for a time and may rise in the short term (but we've never had more than 3 deaths in a day anyway) - nature of the beast sadly.

Of course there can always be random acts of madness (outbreaks) like Qld local elections going ahead today (what a disgrace) but if our current trajectory continues.....

The key now is to get a cheap, quick test out there and test the f... out of everyone. Isolate all new cases immediately. It sounds like if you've had it once, you're very unlikely to get it again....so test the antibodies and if you've had it get the f... back to work.

Finally to put this all in perspective, H1N1 in 2009 in the US:

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

Much to play out in the US, but thus far 100k cases (vs 60m over the year) and 1600 deaths (vs 12500 odd). Hmmmm.

and

"Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.**"

Thus far, with the virus globally, deaths? 27000 (noting it may yet rage through poorer countries like in Africa, but then again, their older folk have already died from other stuff or starvation).

With this corona virus, data from South Korea (which has largely beaten it now) shows everything flat lines pretty quickly once you get over the peak!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

Finals, then 4 in a row!
 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #362 –
Quote from: Professer E – on
I spent thirty years building a career and a business and it's over.   Ducked. Fini.  Kaput.    But I accept that it's for the greater good. 

All I've seen in the past month is the reality of Australia in 2020.  It's not "how ya doin mate".  It's "F you Jack,  I'm alright... I'm still workin' and I got heapza bog roll". 

These are the exact selfish cretins - at all socioeconomic levels - that refuse to do what is required for the soft quarantine to work.   And we're all going to pay for it.



Sh1te! Really sorry to read that, Professory. Wish I could help some how. SO many horror stories coming out as to how innocent folks are having their lives seriously damaged by this virus and the necessary heavy handed strategies to contain the b@stard.

I wonder how many class action law suits will be lodged against China and the WHO for not preventing this in the first place (when they had SARS to show them what to do and not do), and then reacting too slowly when top level medical advice was to act quickly in 'closing' borders around the affected area/country.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #363 –
Quote from: flyboy77 – on
I'm calling it early - the virus has peaked here in Australia...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

New cases in the country yesterday only 130 - and the graph up to yesterday of new cases show a flattening then decline. Of course, new deaths always lags news cases for a time and may rise in the short term (but we've never had more than 3 deaths in a day anyway) - nature of the beast sadly.

Of course there can always be random acts of madness (outbreaks) like Qld local elections going ahead today (what a disgrace) but if our current trajectory continues.....

The key now is to get a cheap, quick test out there and test the f... out of everyone. Isolate all new cases immediately. It sounds like if you've had it once, you're very unlikely to get it again....so test the antibodies and if you've had it get the f... back to work.

Finally to put this all in perspective, H1N1 in 2009 in the US:

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

Much to play out in the US, but thus far 100k cases (vs 60m over the year) and 1600 deaths (vs 12500 odd). Hmmmm.

and

"Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.**"

Thus far, with the virus globally, deaths? 27000 (noting it may yet rage through poorer countries like in Africa, but then again, their older folk have already died from other stuff or starvation).

With this corona virus, data from South Korea (which has largely beaten it now) shows everything flat lines pretty quickly once you get over the peak!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/



I thought the same thing, FB, until I saw we had 111 new cases in VIC today... up from the 55 or so average over the past week or so. And NSW figures haven't come in yet for today... gulp!
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #364 –
Where are you sourcing your data Baggers?

This from worldometers (noting from today  yet):

Latest Updates
March 27 (GMT)
130 new cases in Australia [source]
March 26 (GMT)
374 new cases and 2 new deaths in Australia: 2 men in their 70s, one had been a passenger on the Ruby Princess cruise ship [source] [source] [source] [source]
March 25 (GMT)
359 new cases and 3 new deaths in Australia. Deaths:  2 Victorian men in their 70s and a 69-year old man who had contracted the disease on board of the Royal Caribbean cruise ship [source] [source] [source]
March 24 (GMT)
430 new cases and 1 new death in Australia [source]
March 23 (GMT)
278 new cases in Australia [source]
March 22 (GMT)
537 new cases in Australia. NSW will proceed to a more comprehensive shutdown of non-essential services over the next 48 hours [source] [source] [source]
March 21 (GMT)
144 new cases in Australia, bringing Australia's total coronavirus cases to over 1000 after NSW announced 83 new cases [source]
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #365 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Ditto, that's tough having 30 years of
building a business ripped out from underneath you. Unlike Dangerfield and crew I  think most in the community with jobs would be happy to pay a bit more in taxes to help those like Prof get back on their feet. Banks and other finance institutions have to cut those struggling with businesses some slack too.

Couldn't agree more. A small business (less than, say, 100 employees), rescue fund to which we can donate loot? Hopefully lots of everyday folk are brainstorming ways in which we can look after small business... which is often where you find some of the hardest working cats in the nation.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #366 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
I thought the same thing, FB, until I saw we had 111 new cases in VIC today... up from the 55 or so average over the past week or so. And NSW figures haven't come in yet for today... gulp!
Unfortunately I don't think we are even within sight of the peak (predicted to be late May or early June. In NSW, for the first time yesterday they had more than 50% of their new cases that had not been on a cruise ship or returned from overseas, and had no known contact with anybody who had. That means the start of community spread. And once it starts, it will gain momentum quickly. We're ll hoping the self isolation will slow it down, but there are too many morons who refuse to follow instructions in this country, so increased community spread is inevitable in my opinion

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #367 –
Quote from: flyboy77 – on
I'm calling it early - the virus has peaked here in Australia...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

New cases in the country yesterday only 130 - and the graph up to yesterday of new cases show a flattening then decline. Of course, new deaths always lags news cases for a time and may rise in the short term (but we've never had more than 3 deaths in a day anyway) - nature of the beast sadly...

...........https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

I cannot find one single health / infectious disease professional who is saying anything even remotely similar. There is a real danger in just picking some stats and ignoring a whole plethora of circumstances  and contexts that make the situation very complex.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #368 –
of course they're not going to say anything publicly. Duh.

But the data is the data, need a few more days to confirm it but every country that 'peaks' falls off rapidly.....

Picking data?

New cases is the only relevant leading indicator - you got something better? Put it up.

Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #369 –
Quote from: flyboy77 – on
of course they're not going to say anything publicly. Duh.

But the data is the data, need a few more days to confirm it but every country that 'peaks' falls off rapidly.....

Picking data?

New cases is the only relevant leading indicator - you got something better? Put it up.

Dude, seriously.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #370 –
Quote from: flyboy77 – on
I'm calling it early - the virus has peaked here in Australia...

Hmmm, best tell that to all the morons who decided to flood down to the Peninsula Surf beaches today, if you wanted to go there to walk the dog you couldn't even get a car park!

They've basically stopped widespread testing, because the tests do not tell if the person has antibodies, they are doing targeted testing instead, people who are genuinely ill. They have also realised the reporting is fuelling the panic, so they are now restricting the data to stop the media causing a panic. There will be new tests becoming available in the next couple of weeks to clarify the situation. The new tests which cost about $1 and give a result in minutes will see a massive spike in cases or previous cases as they detect both the infected and the antibodies. Not sure how that will be reported, but you expect more people quarantined.

Stage 3 is coming people, it's inevitable!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #371 –
Quote from: Jack Burton – on
Unfortunately I don't think we are even within sight of the peak (predicted to be late May or early June. In NSW, for the first time yesterday they had more than 50% of their new cases that had not been on a cruise ship or returned from overseas, and had no known contact with anybody who had. That means the start of community spread. And once it starts, it will gain momentum quickly. We're ll hoping the self isolation will slow it down, but there are too many morons who refuse to follow instructions in this country, so increased community spread is inevitable in my opinion

Quote me your source Jack...re May/June. That is illogical.

The incubation period (99%) anyway is 14 days or less (median 5 days).

And:

"Even people who develop symptoms are at risk of unwittingly spreading the virus. A study in China suggests that infectiousness starts about 2.5 days before the onset of symptoms, and peaks 15 hours before (medRxiv, doi.org/dqbr).

We know that coughs and sneezes spread the virus, so how is it possible for asymptomatic people to spread the infection?

People with mild or no symptoms can have a very high viral load in their upper respiratory tracts, meaning they can shed the virus through spitting, touching their mouths or noses and then a surface, or possibly talking. Even people who don’t feel ill occasionally cough or sneeze.

Once symptoms develop, a person’s viral load declines steadily, and they become increasingly less infectious. However, people appear to keep shedding the virus for around two weeks after they recover from covid-19, both in their saliva and stools (medRxiv, doi.org/dqbs). This means that even once a person’s symptoms have cleared, it may still be possible to infect other people.

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238473-you-could-be-spreading-the-coronavirus-without-realising-youve-got-it/#ixzz6HwUGhmXL

"the start of community spread"? What the f... do you think has been happening in recent weeks?

Why do you think we've been socially isolating?

The data doesn't lie! (short of a random event)
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #372 –
Quote from: LP – on
Hmmm, best tell that to all the morons who decided to flood down to the Peninsula Surf beaches today, if you wanted to go there to walk the dog you couldn't even get a car park!

They've basically stopped widespread testing, there will be new tests becoming available in the next couple of weeks to clarify the situation. The new tests which cost about $1 and give a result in minutes will see a massive spike in cases or previous cases as they detect both the infected and the antibodies. Not sure how that will be reported.

Stage 3 is coming people, it's inevitable!

And so be it. Fine idiots who don't act appropriately.

A few $500 fines will clear the beaches.
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #373 –
OK, they have just updated yesterday's new cases to 328!

March 27 (GMT)
328 new cases in Australia [source]
March 26 (GMT)
374 new cases and 2 new deaths in Australia: 2 men in their 70s, one had been a passenger on the Ruby Princess cruise ship [source] [source] [source] [source]
March 25 (GMT)
359 new cases and 3 new deaths in Australia. Deaths:  2 Victorian men in their 70s and a 69-year old man who had contracted the disease on board of the Royal Caribbean cruise ship [source] [source] [source]
March 24 (GMT)
430 new cases and 1 new death in Australia [source]
March 23 (GMT)
278 new cases in Australia [source]
March 22 (GMT)
537 new cases in Australia. NSW will proceed to a more comprehensive shutdown of non-essential services over the next 48 hours [source] [source] [source]
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #374 –
Quote from: flyboy77 – on
The incubation period (99%) anyway is 14 days or less (median 5 days).
They don't know the incubation period yet, those reports were speculation that the media have reported as fact, and they don't know how asymptomatic carriers spread the disease, the Colorado COVID Caseys out there leaving Portsea are increasing in number by the ratio of about 5:1 each and every day!  That's basic math and cannot lie!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"