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Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #1 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/08/29/each-afl-clubs-highest-individual-goal-percentages-of-2023/

It's good for Curnow, and good for the fans, but personally, I don't like seeing one bloke kick 30% of our goals. And it's 3x as much as the next guy. The Brisbane and Collingwood profiles are more sustainable IMO.

This is when some of my % stats would be handy. He kicks 28% of the goals in games he plays in......which was all of them this year.
Same can't be said of any of the others....as they all missed large chunks of time through injury.

As an example...
Curnow played in 23 games.
Harry - played in 19 - but kicked 12.2% of the goals he played in
Owies - 16 - 14.8%
Motlop - 18 - 11.4%
Silvagni - 16 - 7.2%

So for every goal Charlie kicks, we get around 1 each out of Harry, Owies and Motlop....keeping in mind each of them got subbed out during games as well through injury.

That list is a list of how fit your goal kickers have been for the year.

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #2 –
Also we have the back to back coleman medalist.

Harry won it a few years back with Charlie in the side.

Had Charlie kicked better without converting everything he probably still should have about 40 odd.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson
 

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #3 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/08/29/each-afl-clubs-highest-individual-goal-percentages-of-2023/

It's good for Curnow, and good for the fans, but personally, I don't like seeing one bloke kick 30% of our goals. And it's 3x as much as the next guy. The Brisbane and Collingwood profiles are more sustainable IMO.
Hmmm, @PaulP isn't that stat just a historical statement about what it takes to lead the goal kicking, on average has it been any different for any other Coleman medallist?

Historically, teams at the top of the ladder kick between 200 and 300 goals a season. Coleman medallists typically kick about 70 goals a season or more, it's nearly always between 25% and 33% of a teams goal score!

Some Coleman winners come out of lowly teams, forming an even greater percentage.

I concur with @kruddler, the most important stat for us is not Charlie's 33% it's the 6 or 7 other "regular" goal scorers.

What's become even more important for us than the goal scoring, is the way Harry, Charlie and others work up the ground to get the chain of disposals moving, it's really the key difference between us 3 months ago and now and we've missed a bit of that having Harry and Owies out at times over recent weeks.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #4 –
Quote from: LP – on
Hmmm, @PaulP isn't that stat just a historical statement about what it takes to lead the goal kicking, on average has it been any different for any other Coleman medallist?

Historically, teams at the top of the ladder kick between 200 and 300 goals a season. Coleman medallists typically kick about 70 goals a season or more, it's nearly always between 25% and 33% of a teams goal score!

Some Coleman winners come out of lowly teams, forming an even greater percentage.

I concur with @kruddler, the most important stat for us is not Charlie's 33% it's the 6 or 7 other "regular" goal scorers.

What's become even more important for us than the goal scoring, is the way Harry, Charlie and others work up the ground to get the chain of disposals moving, it's really the key difference between us 3 months ago and now and we've missed a bit of that having Harry and Owies out at times over recent weeks.

Spot on, Spotted One.

Charles is a 'generation' player. He's unpredictable and uniquely talented. Can't be pidgeonholed. And when something special is called for in dire situations, he finds something. Look at the strife we were in against GCS, Charles showed leadership and really stepped up with some clever and sublime efforts to get us back into the contest... lifting his team mates in the process.

If we're to go deep into the finals, we'll need H to fire as well.

Our small forwards are going great and they work so well with Charles and each other (Owies, Motlop, Fog & Martin - each brings something different as well).

Seems to me that our forwards (and wingers/mids) don't give a flog who kicks the goals, just as long as we all help each other and play to our strengths.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #5 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
Spot on, Spotted One.

Charles is a 'generation' player. He's unpredictable and uniquely talented. Can't be pidgeonholed. And when something special is called for in dire situations, he finds something. Look at the strife we were in against GCS, Charles showed leadership and really stepped up with some clever and sublime efforts to get us back into the contest... lifting his team mates in the process.

If we're to go deep into the finals, we'll need H to fire as well.

Our small forwards are going great and they work so well with Charles and each other (Owies, Motlop, Fog & Martin - each brings something different as well).

Seems to me that our forwards (and wingers/mids) don't give a flog who kicks the goals, just as long as we all help each other and play to our strengths.

Further to what you've stated here.

Agree, we will most likely require Harry to fire to do some damage.

Harry is the best key forward option we've had since Fevola...and by some margin. Strong mark. Good on the lead. Tall and relatively agile. Game changer.

....and Harry is just the robin to Charlies Batman.

Put the 2 together and its ridiculous how good they are and how much we take them for granted.

If those 2 fire, we can beat anyone......and i doubt anyone can stop them.

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #6 –
Charlie has been good at spotting up the long F50 target over the last month or so, with Owies and Motlop getting deep inside F50 on the turnover.

But I do not expect that trick will work more than once in a final, teams will be too switched on and ready for it to happen.

So the key next week will be that even though I expect Charlie or Harry to still get the possessions up the field, they should now be looking for players in space around or juts inside the F50 arc, because I bet the defenders push back hard leaving an opportunity for HFF to double back onto the footy. The players who are going to be most likely in that zone to do the damage will be the likes of Martin, Cottrell, Cerra and Acres.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #7 –
As others have suggested, the percentages used in that analysis reflect games played as much as a focus on particular forwards at the expense of others.

Charlie kicked 78 goals from 23 games whereas our other major goalkickers were:
Harry - 27 goals from 19 games;
Owies - 25 from 16;
Motlop - 22 from 18;
Silvagni - 14 from 16;
Martin - 13 from 11; and
Small Durds - 11 from 11.

I'm not going to do a Lods style comparison of our scoring but it's interesting to see how our ability to score has improved:
2023 - 275 goals, 206 behinds :-*
2022 - 268 goals, 208 behinds
2021 - 250 goals, 201 behinds
2020* - 146 goals, 114 behinds
2019 - 231 goals, 183 behinds.

Of course, AFL rule changes and coaching tactics generally have an impact as does our players and gamestyle.

Bearing in mind differences in the number of games played (and changing roles), the most significant changes in our goalkickers from last season are:
Cripps 20 > 6
McKay 45 > 27
Motlop 12 < 22
Fisher 18 > 4
Owies 14 < 25

Everyone else was more or less the same, but 27 players out of 37 scored at least one goal this season compared to 22 out of 34 last season.
 
 :-* Incorrect number of behinds in original post and it seems that the figures I used don't include rushed behinds
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #8 –
2023 - 275 goals, 272 behinds
2022 - 268 goals, 208 behinds
2021 - 250 goals, 201 behinds

You know, this is as simple as it gets when it comes to scoring and ratios. 

We've had way more scoring shots than last year, converted less of them consistently.

That being said, weve had 2 heavy wins vs the Eagles, which contributed to 19 of Charlie's goals in 2 matches.

Harry's conversion ratio is way down on his average.  His scoring totals normally convert 60% of his shots into goals at worst, and this season he is at about 50% and thats not including out of bounds on the full.

Instantly that explains a lot of our reliance on charlie away.

Ultimately, whatever will work works, and the rest is just details.


"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #9 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
2023 - 275 goals, 272 behinds
2022 - 268 goals, 208 behinds
2021 - 250 goals, 201 behinds

You know, this is as simple as it gets when it comes to scoring and ratios. 

We've had way more scoring shots than last year, converted less of them consistently.

That being said, weve had 2 heavy wins vs the Eagles, which contributed to 19 of Charlie's goals in 2 matches.

Harry's conversion ratio is way down on his average.  His scoring totals normally convert 60% of his shots into goals at worst, and this season he is at about 50% and thats not including out of bounds on the full.

Instantly that explains a lot of our reliance on charlie away.

Ultimately, whatever will work works, and the rest is just details.

2023 - 23 games
2022 - 22 games
2021 - 22 games (with a sacked coach)

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #10 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
2023 - 23 games
2022 - 22 games
2021 - 22 games (with a sacked coach)

An extra game doesn't explain 71 more scoring shots.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #11 –
Quote from: DJC – on
An extra game doesn't explain 71 more scoring shots.

Never said it did.

But to be pedantic, its not scoring shots. Its behinds.
That includes rushed behinds, but wouldn't include shots that missed everything.

Ultimately, its team gets better = more scoring shots.

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #12 –
It also doesn't explain the difference in ratio where we are almost goals behind parity.

In previous years we scored more efficiently.


The point I'm making is that there is a lot of scope for improvement.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #13 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/08/29/each-afl-clubs-highest-individual-goal-percentages-of-2023/

It's good for Curnow, and good for the fans, but personally, I don't like seeing one bloke kick 30% of our goals. And it's 3x as much as the next guy. The Brisbane and Collingwood profiles are more sustainable IMO.
One can bogged down with silly stats. We've been pumping sides so been doing something right.

I'm guessing the like of Jason Dunstall kicked a fair percentage of Hawthorn's goals in the golden era. If you get the ball into the F50 efficiently then you can get your key forward one out. If not, we have plenty of others kicking goals in the last 10 weeks. Mids and smaller forwards have had a picnic during that period. If Charlie didn't kick them, someone else was. If any side has the best key forward in the competition, then they'll kick that percentage of goals or more. Also remember, we have had basically 2 seasons, the first 13 weeks and the last 10 weeks where we dominated the competition. So you need 2 sets of stats for starters.

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #14 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
It also doesn't explain the difference in ratio where we are almost goals behind parity.

In previous years we scored more efficiently.


The point I'm making is that there is a lot of scope for improvement.

I've got something that explains the difference. Human error.

https://afltables.com/afl/teams/carlton/season.html
2023 - 275.272.1922
2022 - 268.249.1857
2021 - 250.246.1746