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Topic: AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon (Read 18226 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #47 –
Quote from: pertz – on
Is Langford playing?

He’s a test. 
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #48 –
So if Pitto passes his test is he in with TDK?

I'm torn, but I think a rested Goldstein with 2MP might be a step too far. 2MP is not a great ruck, but his size makes him a handful in our D50 which will drag a solo TDK to the wrong end of the ground for our liking. But I get the concerns about the CheatsFC run and carry and the berserker game style.

Also, when you have an opposition coach known as "The Tunnelling King", you know your talls aren't going to have their usual advantage.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #49 –
Quote from: LP – on
So if Pitto passes his test is he in with TDK?

I'm torn, but I think a rested Goldstein with 2MP might be a step too far. 2MP is not a great ruck, but his size makes him a handful in our D50 which will drag a solo TDK to the wrong end of the ground for our liking. But I get the concerns about the CheatsFC run and carry and the berserker game style.

Also, when you have an opposition coach known as "The Tunnelling King", you know your talls aren't going to have their usual advantage.
I'd probably just play the one ruck and be backing Harry to break even with Wright.
If Draper was playing along with Goldstein. then I would have gone with Pittonet and TDK.
FWIW I'd be backing TDK to jump all over Goldstein in the middle and give us first use.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #50 –
Quote from: LP – on
So if Pitto passes his test is he in with TDK?

I'm torn, but I think a rested Goldstein with 2MP might be a step too far. 2MP is not a great ruck, but his size makes him a handful in our D50 which will drag a solo TDK to the wrong end of the ground for our liking. But I get the concerns about the CheatsFC run and carry and the berserker game style.

Also, when you have an opposition coach known as "The Tunnelling King", you know your talls aren't going to have their usual advantage.

At this point, the footy experts tell us that our 1 wood is strength and power around stoppage and contest. We are not a great transition / turnover team, and we don't really play surge footy. We have a choice between adding to our strength around contest, or diluting that somewhat and trying to match other teams in speed and mobility. There's a reasonable case to be made for both, and both involve rolling the dice, but I'd suggest playing to our strengths and maximizing our strong hand in one space, is to be preferred. I'd play both Pittonet and De Koning, assuming  both are legitimately fit. 
 

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #51 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
I'd probably just play the one ruck and be backing Harry to break even with Wright.
That's the wrong end of the ground, from what I've seen 2MP is doing very little centre square work with most of his rucking in F50 stoppages, do we really want BigH rucking and around stoppages in our D50?

I see D50 ruck is a specialist job, it's more about tactics as a group and set plays than the midfield which is dynamic by comparison. Make an error rucking in D50 and it's often a shot at goal for the opposition.

It may even be the case that this weekend is a case for Pitto solo, and it really depends on what we want as emphasis, attack(TDK), defence(Pitto) or midfield dominance(Both) as @PaulP points out.

Under the new ruck rules, and now also with the revised holding the ball emphasis, midfield dominance might be harder than ever against someone like Goldstein. So I'm torn.

Keep in mind, Pitto is yet to play under the new holding the ball interpretation, some (not many) of those 2nd efforts clearances he was giving before his injury will now be converted to infringements.

I feel for the MC this week, it's not an obvious case like some other rounds.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #52 –

Before our last game this was our scoring off turn over differential this year.


With Pittonet: -32
Without Pittonet: +131

2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #53 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Before our last game this was our scoring off turn over differential this year.


With Pittonet: -32
Without Pittonet: +131
It's not a good stat to measure a team dynamic, as some other stat that was negative was positive with Pitto because our style of play or tactics change.

For example, do we lose or win more midfield with Pitto, if so then what happens to scoring trends, there may just be less from turnover because there is more from clearance. This is where numbers can become very rubbery in the absence of game situation.

Another example, it is probably a stat that also depends on opposition tactics and structure, contested ball versus bruise free, etc., etc..
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #54 –
Redman out with a hammy....
This is now the longest premiership drought in the history of the Carlton Football Club - more evidence of climate change?

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #55 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
At this point, the footy experts tell us that our 1 wood is strength and power around stoppage and contest. We are not a great transition / turnover team, and we don't really play surge footy. We have a choice between adding to our strength around contest, or diluting that somewhat and trying to match other teams in speed and mobility.

Here is the thing though, what actually adds to our strength the best?
Having a fresh(er) ruck with a better chance of hitting our mids at a stoppage
or
Having another fresh(er) mid around the stoppage due to the ability to include one more mid/runner in the side due to 1 ruck.

THAT is the crux of the 1-ruck vs 2-ruck debate from the beginning (which people continually overlook).

My argument is that the little extra benefit provided by tapwork is undone by the fatiguing mids by comparison to the alternative.
Fresher (more) mids = greater pressure = greater turnovers etc etc etc.

IMO the team benefits more by an extra small.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #56 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
At this point, the footy experts tell us that our 1 wood is strength and power around stoppage and contest. We are not a great transition / turnover team, and we don't really play surge footy. We have a choice between adding to our strength around contest, or diluting that somewhat and trying to match other teams in speed and mobility. There's a reasonable case to be made for both, and both involve rolling the dice, but I'd suggest playing to our strengths and maximizing our strong hand in one space, is to be preferred. I'd play both Pittonet and De Koning, assuming  both are legitimately fit. 

Disagree. We scored 7 of our 8 goals in the last qtr against Port from Transition. A record apparently. That's what we need to go deep in September. One ruckman is a big part of this.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #57 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Here is the thing though, what actually adds to our strength the best?
Having a fresh(er) ruck with a better chance of hitting our mids at a stoppage
or
Having another fresh(er) mid around the stoppage due to the ability to include one more mid/runner in the side due to 1 ruck.

THAT is the crux of the 1-ruck vs 2-ruck debate from the beginning (which people continually overlook).

My argument is that the little extra benefit provided by tapwork is undone by the fatiguing mids by comparison to the alternative.
Fresher (more) mids = greater pressure = greater turnovers etc etc etc.

IMO the team benefits more by an extra small.



The questions then become (as they always have)...

Who is that extra mid?
What impact will he have on the game?
Does the extra rotation they provide really outweigh any ruck advantage that might be had?
...and how do you measure that.
It's not all gain either way...there is some loss.

For what it's worth I'd leave the side unchanged and just go with the one ruck this weekend.



Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #58 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Here is the thing though, what actually adds to our strength the best?
Having a fresh(er) ruck with a better chance of hitting our mids at a stoppage
or
Having another fresh(er) mid around the stoppage due to the ability to include one more mid/runner in the side due to 1 ruck.

THAT is the crux of the 1-ruck vs 2-ruck debate from the beginning (which people continually overlook).

My argument is that the little extra benefit provided by tapwork is undone by the fatiguing mids by comparison to the alternative.
Fresher (more) mids = greater pressure = greater turnovers etc etc etc.

IMO the team benefits more by an extra small.


Quote from: pertz – on
Disagree. We scored 7 of our 8 goals in the last qtr against Port from Transition. A record apparently. That's what we need to go deep in September. One ruckman is a big part of this.


I don't disagree that the 1 ruck argument has merit. I'm just not sure the case is black and white, and I don't think the club does either. Either way you roll the dice, and either way you lose something.

Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon

Reply #59 –
Quote from: PaulP – on


I don't disagree that the 1 ruck argument has merit. I'm just not sure the case is black and white, and I don't think the club does either. Either way you roll the dice, and either way you lose something.

Supporters seem to be more concerned with how we can counter or neutralise the opposition's strengths.  While that may be part of our opposition analyst's task, I'm sure that a lot of their time is spent mapping out how we can make the most of our strengths and exploit the opposition's weaknesses.

I'm assuming that Goldstein will come in for Bryan, although the latter probably did enough to keep his spot and Essendon going with two rucks is not out of the question.  De Koning will have the edge over Goldy in all facets of the game except hitouts.  Tom will get his share but we will have to rely on our midfield to nullify Goldy's hitouts.  Wright is a more accomplished ruckman than Harry but, with our midfield's help, Harry should be able to prevent Wright doing any damage while in the ruck.

If Essendon goes with Goldstein and Bryan, Harry will struggle and Tom will have a greater workload.  Essendon will lose a forward/midfielder and that shouldn't have much impact on their structures given that their preference is to play Goldy and Draper.

If we play Pittonet and De Koning, we lose some of Tom's impact around the ground but stretch Essendon's defence and hammer Goldstein and Wright (or Bryan) in the ruck.  We would also lose some of Harry's impact around the ground but I would still expect him to work up the ground and with the benefit of two marking targets in our forward 50.  We might lose a bit of run around the ground but I think that two large bodies working over our opposition and demanding an opponent limits their run.

Which way should we go?  Buggered if I know!  :-\
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!