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Topic: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda (Read 75845 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #75 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
the statistic that shows we haven't won this match is flawed.

I.e.  in 2013 we needed that win to finish 9th against Port Adelaide and take that finals spot. 

In most years after 2013 the queue was in the rack.  Last year that cost us nothing against gws and we fielded a second string line up.  In my recent memory 2022 was the first year we needed to win in round 23 to make finals, and we fell short but missed on percentage against a team that won a flag a year later.

Every other year is effectively irrelevant since 2013.

100%.

For teams outside the 8, its rather simple and this will trend that way.
Until you remove the benefit for losing and at the same time, penalise those for winning, and this is the result you will likely see repeated
ie, tanking.

Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #76 –
the aints have a horrible knack of beating us when it matters, in recent time (ie 20-odd years)

i have visions of a quick kick out of a pack, from some bloke i have never heard of, at the 25min mark of the last quarter (all while crippa is being held by both arms and both legs, by steele), sending us on our way out of the finals

Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #77 –
Quote from: Milhanna13 – on
the aints have a horrible knack of beating us when it matters, in recent time (ie 20-odd years)

i have visions of a quick kick out of a pack, from some bloke i have never heard of, at the 25min mark of the last quarter (all while crippa is being held by both arms and both legs, by steele), sending us on our way out of the finals
Know what you mean Mil but I reckon this time its different and we will prevail and with Charlie and Harry hopefully back give them a good kicking back down the ladder where they belong. My daughters inlaws are all mad keen Saints fans, hate Carlton and are planning a big day at the game and its going to be a nightmare putting up with them if we lose  and miss finals. Have this feeling Freo are going to win too so there wont be any 2nd chances...

Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #78 –
We've got half a list and it's a crapshoot, nobody can tell what is going to happen.

Head nerd Hoyne makes the prediction of doom so he can go the "I told you so", if we win he'll claim "Carlton did what he suggested we needed to", I'm sure it gives him the warm Nostradamus feeling, but the report is little more than "They need to score more points than the opposition to win!" This is old school Caro and Flubbo tactics.

What would be impressive is if one of the nerds come out before the game and predicted something very specific, like which players will star or flop on the day, and how a club will finish up ahead or behind on various team stats! But I'm cynical, in that they'd probably tell us Walsh will cover more ground than his opponents, or Cripps will get most contested possessions.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #79 –
Is there a link to this Hoyne stuff?
 

Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #80 –
The Saints would be completely justified in thinking they can win. Won 4 of the last 5. They play Marvel very well. Our lineup of course is heavily depleted. Very much a 50/50 game IMO.

Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #81 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
The Saints would be completely justified in thinking they can win. Won 4 of the last 5. They play Marvel very well. Our lineup of course is heavily depleted. Very much a 50/50 game IMO.

Honestly, i think it should be a 70-30 game, their way.

No idea how we managed to win last week, no idea how we can get lightning to strike twice.

Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #82 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Is there a link to this Hoyne stuff?

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/08/22/the-numbers-that-back-up-champion-data-analysts-bold-2024-premiership-tip/

5 minutes in the they speak about power forwards in finals and he brings up his opinion on Harry.

If you jump to the 13 minute mark he talks about StKilda and how they're going to be a problem for us.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #83 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/08/22/the-numbers-that-back-up-champion-data-analysts-bold-2024-premiership-tip/

5 minutes in the they speak about power forwards in finals and he brings up his opinion on Harry.

If you jump to the 13 minute mark he talks about StKilda and how they're going to be a problem for us.
Hoyne knows his stuff, one of the few I like listening to.
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #84 –
I'm listening to that SEN podcast now - interesting to hear Hoyne say McKay to CHB.

Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #85 –
Quote from: LP – on
What would be impressive is if one of the nerds come out before the game and predicted something very specific, like which players will star or flop on the day, and how a club will finish up ahead or behind on various team stats!

I can think of two blokes who could probably do that...but both of them are long dead. :D

Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #86 –
Saad Fantasia and Curnow named in a squad
No outs yet
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #87 –
Main training session is tomorrow with fitness tests so final team will be in 5pm tomorrow.

Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #88 –
Quote from: pinot – on
Main training session is tomorrow with fitness tests so final team will be in 5pm tomorrow.
Im sure they'll give Curnow and Saad until the final hour.
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: AFL Rd 24 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #89 –
Curnow and Saad named in the side, so will play if fit.

Fantasia named on the extended bench, so even if fit is not guaranteed a game.
Williams is named on the ground., durdin named on the bench. McGovern named on the ground. Questions over all 3.

Moir, Fantasia, Durdin (and Kennedy), all small forwards, all on the bench. Owies, Motlop, Williams (and E. Hollands) all named on the ground in the forward line.
Not sure what the record is for small forwards, but we might break it this week.