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Topic: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn (Read 12643 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #135 –
Quote from: Professer E – on
What you didn't see him outsprinted on numerous occasions, at least one example coughing up a soft goal?  It was on the highlights package FFS
Are you claiming he gave up the chase?

Only in the mind of fans is it a crime to be slower than an opponent, fans often think a team needs 100% supremacy but that is a fantasy. In our squad it would be quite odd to single someone out for being slower, than an opponent.

Other than TDK and perhaps Saad if the match up is good, do we have another player guaranteed to be faster than their direct opponent?
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #136 –
I heard Sam Mitchell say there is leg speed and there is brain speed. My personal feeling is that with a fully fit list, Jack Silvagni would be hovering around the end of the best 22 (i.e just in or just out), but from what I can tell, his footy IQ (i.e brain speed) is pretty good.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #137 –
I heard Mitchell say on radio “its gonna be hot early”, from that it sounded to me like he expects  they will weather any storm then run away with it.
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership
 

Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #138 –
IMHO winning the ball at the coal face is crucial to this contest.  If we can win first use, the next important thing is what we do with it.  If we go to a contest repeatedly, they will waltz away with it like we are standing still.

If we play this way, once we lose the ascendency it appears to me that we have no confidence to play any other way and win so we repeat the same approach expecting different results based on the outcome of contests.  This is fine, its probably playing percentage football for us, where we are a contested team and we dont mind the contest, but IMHO, you are better off avoiding a contest, and making your opponent chase tail.  That doesnt mean be quicker, that means move the ball quicker to the next target.  They cant catch whats in constant motion.

This means good ball use though, and our side just doesnt have it.  Its a real conundrum.  Im expecting Hawthorn to play dirty.  We go to water under physical pressure.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #139 –
Sorry, I seem to be having trouble getting a really simple fact across.  If somebody runs away from somebody either (1) the person chasing stopped or (2) the other person is faster ?!?
DrE is no more... you ok with that harmonica man?

Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #140 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
I heard Sam Mitchell say there is leg speed and there is brain speed.
It was one of the things I took away from the opening round, the speed of ball movement had almost nothing to do with leg speed. The teams were efficiently offloading the pill like a hot potato, but in a controlled way not the chaotic and not a turnover circus, I've never seen it executed to that level before, offloading before you can be tackled. I saw us do it just once, Cripps at the top of F50.

We with our mostly stronger emphasis heavy working inside Mids we seem to still be in the "draw in the tackler then shovel it out" mode of play. The problem is opposition teams are waiting at the end of the shovel.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #141 –
Defenders need to defend and it's the number of goals and goal assists their opponent gets is my main yardstick on judging their performance not how many cheap possessions they rack up.
Ollie Hollands is still work in progress both as a defender and wingman.He does make errors but he does have a crack and give some effort unlike some of his teammates but I'd be careful in choosing his opponent.
Hawks rotate a lot of their smaller mid size players and Voss and crew need to be  on top of player mismatches.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #142 –
At some stage early on sit the pill on Wiz's head and let TDK or McGovern turn him into a rivet.

Clarkson took great joy telling his team "If it bleeds, we can kill it!"

I'd say "If it's small, crush it!"

Those little blokes tend to slow right down when a KPP knee disconnects a rib or two!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #143 –
Quote from: Professer E – on
Sorry, I seem to be having trouble getting a really simple fact across.  If somebody runs away from somebody either (1) the person chasing stopped or (2) the other person is faster ?!?

Ive yet to see someone capable of running at the same speed frequently from start to finish over 120 mins.

In an isolated event, being out run needs to be viewed in context?

Was this sprint a repeat?  Was this against an opponent who had just come off the bench?  Was this against an opponent that is lightning quick?

So ignoring the isolated incident, the total distance covered by players ranked as follows:

Top 5:

T.Taranto 16.4 ks
M. Cottrell 15.7 ks
S.Walsh 15.7
O.Hollands. 15.7
L. Camporeale 15.4

Max Speed:

R.mansell - 33.1
s.campbell -32.0
l.fogartly - 32.0
T.Brown - 32.0
N.Vlastuin - 32.0

Average speed
T.sonsie 9.6
C.lord 8.5
F. Evans 9.4
S. Walsh 9.3
o.hollands 9.2

Sprinting
R.mansell 24 sprints
s.campbell 20 sprints
l.fogarty 19 sprints
t. brown 19 sprints
s.green 18 sprints


Repeat sprints -
S.Campbell -4
l.fogarty - 3
m. cotterell 3
b.acres 3
n.broad 3

Work rate/average speed in Attack
J.trezise 9.6
s.walsh 9.4
t.taranto 9.4
t.sonsie 9.4
H.armstrong 9.3

Defense

F.evans 9.7
t.sonsie 9.6
c. lord 9.5 (did we sub him cos he blew up or was he making senior players look bad?)
A. cerra 9.3 (important, as that means he is doing the dirty work back).
s. campbell (clearly the bloke who ran hardest during the match).

Work rate in attack was in richmonds favour 8.5km vs 8.2km
Work rate in defense was in carltons favour 8.4km vs 8.1km.

Seeing an isolated incident doesnt really tell the story, but it does mean that his opponent out ran him.  Perhaps it was S.Campbell?  If it was, no shame in that, the bloke was a machine statistically and clearly the hardest working player on the night.

It also shows that Hollands was running at a very high average speed, for more ks than the average player.  This will see him outrun on occasion, because you just cant go like that all night.

There are two schools.  The school of speed, and the school of endurance. The ones that run a lot usually are one paced.  That pace is not usually express, its just a sustainable way to cover a lot of ground.  Speed players usually do it in bursts.  They will sprint 10 times at high pace.  They start doing it more frequently?  The speed drops off.  You just cannot recover that quickly to repeat sprint at fast pace that often.

Thats all I can add to the conversation, but if we had more Ollie Hollands, and based on the above Francis Evans, we would be quicker and fitter.  Weve just dropped Frank the tank which suggests hes a worker at least.  He was pretty ordinary though.  Work rate clearly isnt the issue there, which means its nous, and thats something that might see him come good later in his career (if he extends it beyojnd this year).
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #144 –
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
I heard Mitchell say on radio “its gonna be hot early”, from that it sounded to me like he expects  they will weather any storm then run away with it.

If it's not hot early, we're not serious.
It's maintaining it that will be our issue.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #145 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Quote from: Professer E – on
Sorry, I seem to be having trouble getting a really simple fact across.  If somebody runs away from somebody either (1) the person chasing stopped or (2) the other person is faster ?!?

Ive yet to see someone capable of running at the same speed frequently from start to finish over 120 mins.

In an isolated event, being out run needs to be viewed in context?

Was this sprint a repeat?  Was this against an opponent who had just come off the bench?  Was this against an opponent that is lightning quick?

So ignoring the isolated incident, the total distance covered by players ranked as follows:

Top 5:

T.Taranto 16.4 ks
M. Cottrell 15.7 ks
S.Walsh 15.7
O.Hollands. 15.7
L. Camporeale 15.4

Max Speed:

R.mansell - 33.1
s.campbell -32.0
l.fogartly - 32.0
T.Brown - 32.0
N.Vlastuin - 32.0

Average speed
T.sonsie 9.6
C.lord 8.5
F. Evans 9.4
S. Walsh 9.3
o.hollands 9.2

Sprinting
R.mansell 24 sprints
s.campbell 20 sprints
l.fogarty 19 sprints
t. brown 19 sprints
s.green 18 sprints


Repeat sprints -
S.Campbell -4
l.fogarty - 3
m. cotterell 3
b.acres 3
n.broad 3

Work rate/average speed in Attack
J.trezise 9.6
s.walsh 9.4
t.taranto 9.4
t.sonsie 9.4
H.armstrong 9.3

Defense

F.evans 9.7
t.sonsie 9.6
c. lord 9.5 (did we sub him cos he blew up or was he making senior players look bad?)
A. cerra 9.3 (important, as that means he is doing the dirty work back).
s. campbell (clearly the bloke who ran hardest during the match).

Work rate in attack was in richmonds favour 8.5km vs 8.2km
Work rate in defense was in carltons favour 8.4km vs 8.1km.

Seeing an isolated incident doesnt really tell the story, but it does mean that his opponent out ran him.  Perhaps it was S.Campbell?  If it was, no shame in that, the bloke was a machine statistically and clearly the hardest working player on the night.


Where did you get those stats Thry?

Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #146 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Quote from: Professer E – on
Sorry, I seem to be having trouble getting a really simple fact across.  If somebody runs away from somebody either (1) the person chasing stopped or (2) the other person is faster ?!?

Ive yet to see someone capable of running at the same speed frequently from start to finish over 120 mins.

In an isolated event, being out run needs to be viewed in context?

Was this sprint a repeat?  Was this against an opponent who had just come off the bench?  Was this against an opponent that is lightning quick?

So ignoring the isolated incident, the total distance covered by players ranked as follows:

Top 5:

T.Taranto 16.4 ks
M. Cottrell 15.7 ks
S.Walsh 15.7
O.Hollands. 15.7
L. Camporeale 15.4

Max Speed:

R.mansell - 33.1
s.campbell -32.0
l.fogartly - 32.0
T.Brown - 32.0
N.Vlastuin - 32.0

Average speed
T.sonsie 9.6
C.lord 8.5
F. Evans 9.4
S. Walsh 9.3
o.hollands 9.2

Sprinting
R.mansell 24 sprints
s.campbell 20 sprints
l.fogarty 19 sprints
t. brown 19 sprints
s.green 18 sprints


Repeat sprints -
S.Campbell -4
l.fogarty - 3
m. cotterell 3
b.acres 3
n.broad 3

Work rate/average speed in Attack
J.trezise 9.6
s.walsh 9.4
t.taranto 9.4
t.sonsie 9.4
H.armstrong 9.3

Defense

F.evans 9.7
t.sonsie 9.6
c. lord 9.5 (did we sub him cos he blew up or was he making senior players look bad?)
A. cerra 9.3 (important, as that means he is doing the dirty work back).
s. campbell (clearly the bloke who ran hardest during the match).

Work rate in attack was in richmonds favour 8.5km vs 8.2km
Work rate in defense was in carltons favour 8.4km vs 8.1km.

Seeing an isolated incident doesnt really tell the story, but it does mean that his opponent out ran him.  Perhaps it was S.Campbell?  If it was, no shame in that, the bloke was a machine statistically and clearly the hardest working player on the night.

It also shows that Hollands was running at a very high average speed, for more ks than the average player.  This will see him outrun on occasion, because you just cant go like that all night.

There are two schools.  The school of speed, and the school of endurance. The ones that run a lot usually are one paced.  That pace is not usually express, its just a sustainable way to cover a lot of ground.  Speed players usually do it in bursts.  They will sprint 10 times at high pace.  They start doing it more frequently?  The speed drops off.  You just cannot recover that quickly to repeat sprint at fast pace that often.

Thats all I can add to the conversation, but if we had more Ollie Hollands, and based on the above Francis Evans, we would be quicker and fitter.  Weve just dropped Frank the tank which suggests hes a worker at least.  He was pretty ordinary though.  Work rate clearly isnt the issue there, which means its nous, and thats something that might see him come good later in his career (if he extends it beyojnd this year).

When I was coaching we would test kids playing basketball both in sprints and then with ball in hand.....a lot of the kids as soon as they had to dribble with the ball as quickly as possible slowed down considerably and there were only a few who could maintain their speed.
In football imho there is pace chasing and pace running with the ball and being able to get away or keep distance between you and the chaser. I felt Richmond had more players in each category and eg we really had no one who could catch Campbell in particular when he had the ball and even our younger players like Lord, Ollie and Lucas Camp are not express paced either chasing or with ball in hand.

Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #147 –
Quote from: Professer E – on
What you didn't see him outsprinted on numerous occasions, at least one example coughing up a soft goal?  It was on the highlights package FFS

I watched the game live and I've watched replays of every goal several times.

Campbell kicked a goal with Jack chasing.  However, Jack left his direct opponent to try to put pressure on Campbell.  I doubt that even Gout Gout could have got near Campbell in that situation, and where was Campbell's opponent?

Lalor crumbed a marking contest between Jack and Lynch and kicked a goal with Jack giving chase.  Incredible second effort from Jack but, again, there's no way he could have got near Lalor, and where was Lalor's opponent>

Finally, Docherty's handball to Jack missed by metres, Lalor swooped on the loose ball and kicked the goal.  Nothing Jack could do.

I can't find any footage of Jack's lack of footspeed coughing up soft goals.  I did notice a Richmond crumber running away from Weiters for a soft goal but, again, Weiters had just contested the mark and shouldn't be expected to cover opposition crumbers.

On the other side of the coin, Jack had 16 disposals @ 69%, eight marks (two contested), four intercepts, four tackles, nine 1%ers, one goal and gained 296 metres.  That's a pretty good day at the office for a key defender.

It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #148 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: Thryleon – on


Ive yet to see someone capable of running at the same speed frequently from start to finish over 120 mins.

In an isolated event, being out run needs to be viewed in context?

Was this sprint a repeat?  Was this against an opponent who had just come off the bench?  Was this against an opponent that is lightning quick?

So ignoring the isolated incident, the total distance covered by players ranked as follows:

Top 5:

T.Taranto 16.4 ks
M. Cottrell 15.7 ks
S.Walsh 15.7
O.Hollands. 15.7
L. Camporeale 15.4

Max Speed:

R.mansell - 33.1
s.campbell -32.0
l.fogartly - 32.0
T.Brown - 32.0
N.Vlastuin - 32.0

Average speed
T.sonsie 9.6
C.lord 8.5
F. Evans 9.4
S. Walsh 9.3
o.hollands 9.2

Sprinting
R.mansell 24 sprints
s.campbell 20 sprints
l.fogarty 19 sprints
t. brown 19 sprints
s.green 18 sprints


Repeat sprints -
S.Campbell -4
l.fogarty - 3
m. cotterell 3
b.acres 3
n.broad 3

Work rate/average speed in Attack
J.trezise 9.6
s.walsh 9.4
t.taranto 9.4
t.sonsie 9.4
H.armstrong 9.3

Defense

F.evans 9.7
t.sonsie 9.6
c. lord 9.5 (did we sub him cos he blew up or was he making senior players look bad?)
A. cerra 9.3 (important, as that means he is doing the dirty work back).
s. campbell (clearly the bloke who ran hardest during the match).

Work rate in attack was in richmonds favour 8.5km vs 8.2km
Work rate in defense was in carltons favour 8.4km vs 8.1km.

Seeing an isolated incident doesnt really tell the story, but it does mean that his opponent out ran him.  Perhaps it was S.Campbell?  If it was, no shame in that, the bloke was a machine statistically and clearly the hardest working player on the night.


Where did you get those stats Thry?
The AFL app.  Readily available if you go searching through it.  Go to the tracker instead of the summary, players or teams "tab".
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 2 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #149 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Quote from: Lods – on


Where did you get those stats Thry?
The AFL app.  Readily available if you go searching through it.  Go to the tracker instead of the summary, players or teams "tab".
Thanks for that. Very interesting