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Topic: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments  (Read 336820 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #585 –
Quote from: shawny – on
Quote from: DJC – on


I wonder if this has anything to do with the fact that Victoria has more cars and more people than all of the other States except NSW. In fact, Queensland has a higher per capita rate of car thefts.

It's probably best to rely on ABS statistics than data provided by vested interests.

so the stats are fake are they because they are not from ABS.

ok

Yes, that's spot on.  There are good reasons why most people don't trust insurance companies.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #586 –
Quote from: shawny – on

so the stats are fake are they because they are not from ABS.
@shawny  Finally you understand, even if at first you are trying to be sarcastic.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #587 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Yes, that's spot on.  There are good reasons why most people don't trust insurance companies.
@DJC I worked for News Ltd for almost a decade, back then the "Style Book" was hardcopy and they printed a fresh copy every year or so. All done in house at an internal site called Rotaprint. It was handed out to all journos and editors. People(public) probably thought it was just about fonts and word choices, it looked like a thick little pocket diary or dictionary, it was of course nicknamed the bible, and beyond the typeface it spelt out the "News Ltd" position on just about every topic of public interest, politics, politicians, public servants, celebrities, society, crime, finance, etc., etc., not unlike a manifesto. It told you what words to use to describe them, what nicknames to use, what related issues to focus on, read enough of it and it became pretty transparent, ignore it at your peril, not many stayed around if they failed to follow the scripture.

I gather now we are in the internet era it's probably all digital or perhaps now an AI based proof-reader.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #588 –
From the ABS:

2025:

Population:
Vic: 7.12 mil
NSW: 8.64 mil

Burglary:
Vic: 42692
NSW: 30706

Motor Vehicle Theft:
Vic: 24929
NSW: 12689

Other Theft:
Vic: 177555
NSW: 116808
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #589 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
From the ABS:

2025:

Population:
Vic: 7.12 mil
NSW: 8.64 mil

Burglary:
Vic: 42692
NSW: 30706

Motor Vehicle Theft:
Vic: 24929
NSW: 12689

Other Theft:
Vic: 177555
NSW: 116808


Thanks MBB. 

So even worse and more damming than my original link - Considering Vic has 1.5 million less people yet:

Burglary: Vic 40% higher than NSW
Motor Vehicle Theft: Vic 95% higher than NSW
Other Theft: Vic 52% higher than NSW

:o

Oh but hang on it's only cause these days everything is recorded. How silly of me.  

 

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #591 –
This is a topic that is clearly of interest to most people, but talking about it sensibly is pretty difficult. Partly because of framing, partly because of agendas, and partly because crime and crime statistics are complex and nuanced, and IMO require more understanding than one can reasonably expect from the average lay person.

I just visited the ABS website, and I had a look at the following page :

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-victims/2025

The report is dated 3/9/26, and covers the 2025 calendar year. The top of the page is national statistics, then as you scroll down it shows state by state. The recorded crimes for Victoria are all down (comparing 2025 to 2024) except blackmail / extortion, which is up. 

I suspect if you look over a long period of time, crime rates are reasonably low throughout Australia, but year by year they will go a little up or down.

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #592 –
When using the ABS statistics, or those from the Victorian Crime Statistics Agency, etc, it’s worth drilling down to see what limitations there are.  The States and Territories don’t necessarily collect the same data or in the same way.

With that qualification, the ABS data shows a downward trend for most crimes across all jurisdictions.

But then there’s vile crimes like child sex abuse that aren’t reported and remain at appallingly high levels.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #593 –
Quote from: shawny – on
Quote from: madbluboy – on
From the ABS:

2025:

Population:
Vic: 7.12 mil
NSW: 8.64 mil

Burglary:
Vic: 42692
NSW: 30706

Motor Vehicle Theft:
Vic: 24929
NSW: 12689

Other Theft:
Vic: 177555
NSW: 116808


Thanks MBB. 

So even worse and more damming than my original link - Considering Vic has 1.5 million less people yet:

Burglary: Vic 40% higher than NSW
Motor Vehicle Theft: Vic 95% higher than NSW
Other Theft: Vic 52% higher than NSW

:o

Oh but hang on it's only cause these days everything is recorded. How silly of me.

 
I feel like that line was aimed at me somehow here.

Feel free, but what about what I stated regarding comparing life in the world today, to life in the world in the 80's and 90's didn't you understand?


The two are not mutually exclusive.  Crimes then would occur without a police report.  This means the crime never hits the news, and that was in relation to gang violence and stabbings (real problems).  Including underworld shootings, where it suited people not to report it.  Standover tactics etc.

You wouldnt report a crime that was hard to substantiate if you feared for your life.

These days its different, the footage is there, victims are more confident that they can get their perpetrator convicted, and ergo are more likely to actually go after them to make that happen.

Whats the impact of crimes reported in that situation?  Ill give you a clue, expect more crimes to be reported.

I dont rate this government, and have backed you up more frequently than not in this thread, and will continue to do so when I agree with a non emotive presence, but what you should do is present the change in those statistics you presented over time, if you want to prove or disprove a point, and leave my point out of it.  Its harder to compare to historics.  You could cut it at 10 year intervals.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #594 –
It is a curious link, thanks Paul.  Curious in that:
 - Not all the breakdown of crimes by states has a graph, so it is hard to see longer term trends
 - All the graphs should also include another line - crimes per 100,000 (some of the stats have the comparative)
 - Commentary on Vic MV theft says while it has gone up by 11% from last year, hasn't reached the highs of 2001 - maybe that's a target!

Maybe we should all go into permanent lockdown - crime rates seemed low in 2021!

Crime will always be a problem and society should be a safe place for all.  However, all those that take part in recreational drugs, and purchase illicit tobacco do contribute.  Is it OK for people to look for a headline or screaming match to shout about it without willing to be an actual part of a solution?

What is an 'acceptable' rate of crime - it's always going to exist?

What are the actual policies of the political parties around Law and Order?  What is their realism - are they just motherhood statements to make us feel as if they are going address the issues?  What are policies around preventation, incarcerations and post-release.

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #595 –
Quote from: DJC – on
When using the ABS statistics, or those from the Victorian Crime Statistics Agency, etc, it’s worth drilling down to see what limitations there are.  The States and Territories don’t necessarily collect the same data or in the same way.
I'm sure I posted this on this very thread days ago, or at least mentioned it when discussing the findings of my friend in Vicpol who moved to Qld, the reporting criteria is different. But some will just ignore that because it doesn't suit the narrative, and that post was well before any stats were linked or quoted.

To him before he moved to Qld it looked like less crime to deal with and more money for not having to worry about it, when he got to Qld the story was very very different.

If you measure using the same reporting criteria then serious crime follows population, I think it was an ANU study that standardised the figures and if I can find it again I'll post it. The federal data is the correct data to look at the trend, but it has to take into account definitions can change from year to year and government to government.

A bit like when Kennett kyboshed metal health facilities, all of a sudden Melbourne was the happiest and healthiest place on earth!

To me it's the same error the general public keeping making when reading stats, they assume an assault is an assault, and that all are reported. It's a bit like when we debate AFL stats, what is a tackle, what is a contested possession. What we think can be significantly different from what the statisticians use as definitions!

I suppose the real question becomes, what makes people think we are all the same and why even expect that? In my opinion it's a bit of a tell!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #596 –
Quote from: dodge – on
It is a curious link, thanks Paul.  Curious in that:
 - Not all the breakdown of crimes by states has a graph, so it is hard to see longer term trends
 - All the graphs should also include another line - crimes per 100,000 (some of the stats have the comparative)
 - Commentary on Vic MV theft says while it has gone up by 11% from last year, hasn't reached the highs of 2001 - maybe that's a target!

Maybe we should all go into permanent lockdown - crime rates seemed low in 2021!

Crime will always be a problem and society should be a safe place for all.  However, all those that take part in recreational drugs, and purchase illicit tobacco do contribute.  Is it OK for people to look for a headline or screaming match to shout about it without willing to be an actual part of a solution?

What is an 'acceptable' rate of crime - it's always going to exist?

What are the actual policies of the political parties around Law and Order?  What is their realism - are they just motherhood statements to make us feel as if they are going address the issues?  What are policies around preventation, incarcerations and post-release.

Yes, I generally agree. There's a reason why you need tertiary qualifications to become a Criminologist - understanding the nature of crime, how crime is documented, recorded, categorized, being able to make sense of long term and short term trends etc is pretty tough.

From what I can tell, crime rates are at best minimally impacted by whether Labor or Liberal is in power, and at worst crime rates are pretty much independent. All this business about Labor being "soft on crime", Liberal being tough on law and order etc, feels like pretty shallow and vapid propaganda to me.

Regarding the sentence in bold, I would add, what is the difference between "being" safe and "feeling" safe ? Since humans moved beyond living in small kinship units to larger population centers where you were side by side with people you didn't know, I'd imagine there's always been some crime. You can never have a 0% crime rate. So as you say, what rate would make people feel safe ? When is crime "under control" and when is it going gangbusters ? These are not in any way east questions to answer.
 

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #597 –
Quote from: PaulP – on

Yes, I generally agree. There's a reason why you need tertiary qualifications to become a Criminologist - understanding the nature of crime, how crime is documented, recorded, categorized, being able to make sense of long term and short term trends etc is pretty tough.
In our country the laws are not even the same state to state, let alone the reporting requirements.

The public always comments based on a generalisation, and politicians often play on this even when they blatantly know otherwise, like Hansen bringing her Qld specific issues into the Vic elections!

But we have a bunch of lunatics running around claiming sovereignty or refusing authorities based on constitutional rights.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #598 –
Oh dear.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments

Reply #599 –
The perception of a bias possibly exposes a misunderstanding of the generalised mandatory reporting that is in place in Victoria, that is not the same in other states by the way, at least not yet.

I'm happy to be proven wrong, but my understanding the Vic child protection act requires it for all child or youth crime, while and the public assume mandatory reporting only means mandatory reporting of child abuse. That means in Vic the mandatory reporting laws mean mandatory reporting of all children and youths involved in crime as well, they assume a child or youth involved in crime is a victim of some circumstance.

That is not the case in all Australian states, where officers have discretion over reporting in many cases, it's one of the big Federal issues to get it all standardized in the long term. Uniforms laws and reporting across Australia, but it's not there yet.

If you are in doubt, you can always get it clarified by Bec Judd! ;)
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"