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Topic: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat (Read 2058 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #45 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on


See i find these comments from you fascinating.

I was highlighting time is running out, so we needed to start drafting our spine replacements. I was told by you, and others, that either we had plenty of time or we had enough cover with what we had.

I was also told i was thinking of the now with recruiting these replacements when all along i was trying to prepare for this very moment.

Now you say it was the right thing to do?
This seems very contradictory from you.

Of course, that aside is still doesn't conform if it is the right time.
Geelong and Collingwood wouldn't have done it. They've been ready to fall off the age cliff for the better part of 2 decades now in geelongs case, less so for the pies, but still, they are old and holding on.

Eg pendles if he plays on after next year will play against Cody walker.
He not only played with his dad, but was drafted just 2 years after him.
Imagine if they started a rebuild like we did when we did.

So no, i don't think it was the right thing to do. I think had we drafted kpps when i flagged it, we wouldn't need to be doing one now either.

The difference of opinion lies in how we acquire KPP's
You want to draft them
I want to trade them in, or grab them via free agency
Too much uncertainty about a 'project' player
If you can get a good one in the first round (Dean) go for it.
If not, go looking.

There's been no inconsistency in my opinion we had a problem with youth since I raised it before last years draft.
If anything I was just a bit behind the recruiters who were already on the case.
I've caught up now.

Re kpps.

The value at the draft is the same as any other position.
The value via trade is inflated more than any other position.
For midfielders and small forwards value via trade is a lot cheaper.

Buy low, sell high.

As for free agency, there is 2 problems with your logic imo.
1. Players get to choose where they will go and if you are languishing down the bottom they will choose elsewhere. I expect to be unattractive to free agents.
2. In order to get them otherwise, you pay overs, very much overs and blow up your salary cap in the process and piss off existing players... who take the opportunity to go elsewhere.

Look at when brisbane got fev. Look at the collateral damage that caused. Bradshaw and rischitelli didn't like being shopped around and left. Henderson (a former pick 8) took the opportunity to jump ship...and a 1st rounder went with it.
All for a bloke who played 17 games and was in a salary equivalent to what tdk moved for.

That's how you want to get your kpps?

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #46 –
Quote from: Lods – on
That's the crux of the problem
People are looking at a half-finished project as if it's complete
It's a work in progress.

Sometimes i wonder if im the only one that remembers our performances over the past 2 decades.
The above is the caption under the photo of cfc post 2000.

I find the timing terrible. We are rebuilding a prelim side when we hadn't been a prelim side for 2 decades.

I accept we will be better in a couple years than we are now. I have serious doubts we will be better than we were a couple years ago.

I think we could have avoided being here earlier but that ship had sailed.
I think the 'start with the spine' approach is the proven method to get the team up and going together at the right time and the current method takes the destiny out of our hands somewhat as we are relying on poaching players to get better.

I'm not saying our current strategy will fail.
I'm not saying our current team cannot achieve success.
But i know where the smart money would be and I'm yet to see evidence to justify the blind faith in the current list management team.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #47 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on


The difference of opinion lies in how we acquire KPP's
You want to draft them
I want to trade them in, or grab them via free agency
Too much uncertainty about a 'project' player
If you can get a good one in the first round (Dean) go for it.
If not, go looking.

There's been no inconsistency in my opinion we had a problem with youth since I raised it before last years draft.
If anything I was just a bit behind the recruiters who were already on the case.
I've caught up now.

As for free agency, there is 2 problems with your logic imo.
1. Players get to choose where they will go and if you are languishing down the bottom they will choose elsewhere. I expect to be unattractive to free agents.
2. In order to get them otherwise, you pay overs, very much overs and blow up your salary cap in the process and piss off existing players... who take the opportunity to go elsewhere.


Free agents  won't choose us if we're languishing at the bottom of the ladder?...they probably won't, altough I suspect contract dollars will be a bigger attraction.

But who declares we'll be at the bottom?...that's just an assumption to support the argument.
Your expectations are just a guess.
Who wouldn't want to play with players the calibre of Cripps, Walsh, Weitering etc.

To trades- If you want Charlie Curnow it will probably cost you three first rounders.
But you dont do the trade at the player's peak.
You do it when the opportunity arises, the player fits your needs, they show a bit and still have plenty of time to develop(22-23 years).
It may cost you a little more but it's value compared to an 18 year old man/child in the draft.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #48 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on
That's the crux of the problem
People are looking at a half-finished project as if it's complete
It's a work in progress.

Sometimes i wonder if im the only one that remembers our performances over the past 2 decades.
The above is the caption under the photo of cfc post 2000.

I find the timing terrible. We are rebuilding a prelim side when we hadn't been a prelim side for 2 decades.

I accept we will be better in a couple years than we are now. I have serious doubts we will be better than we were a couple years ago.

I think we could have avoided being here earlier but that ship had sailed.
I think the 'start with the spine' approach is the proven method to get the team up and going together at the right time and the current method takes the destiny out of our hands somewhat as we are relying on poaching players to get better.

I'm not saying our current strategy will fail.
I'm not saying our current team cannot achieve success.
But i know where the smart money would be and I'm yet to see evidence to justify the blind faith in the current list management team.

Once again..."the smart money" is just your guess.
The past is irrelevant.
What matters is what's happening now.
We all know the past...we've lived the few 'ups' and many downs over the last 25 years.
It's a different time and a different group controlling things.
It may go the same way again-but not because we're doing things the same.
Sure there are Navy Blue glasses, but there are also 'Debbie Downer' glasses where everthing is painted in a "maybe it will turn out OK but I wouldnt bet on it" fashion.

I know which is the 'happy' one for the now. ;)

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #49 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on


As for free agency, there is 2 problems with your logic imo.
1. Players get to choose where they will go and if you are languishing down the bottom they will choose elsewhere. I expect to be unattractive to free agents.
2. In order to get them otherwise, you pay overs, very much overs and blow up your salary cap in the process and piss off existing players... who take the opportunity to go elsewhere.


Free agents  won't choose us if we're languishing at the bottom of the ladder?...they probably won't, altough I suspect contract dollars will be a bigger attraction.

But who declares we'll be at the bottom?...that's just an assumption to support the argument.
Your expectations are just a guess.
Who wouldn't want to play with players the calibre of Cripps, Walsh, Weitering etc.

To trades- If you want Charlie Curnow it will probably cost you three first rounders.
But you dont do the trade at the player's peak.
You do it when the opportunity arises, the player fits your needs, they show a bit and still have plenty of time to develop(22-23 years).
It may cost you a little more but it's value compared to an 18 year old man/child in the draft.

Riddle me this then.
Who wanted to come to us this year?
Why didn't we get a kpp that fits your description this year?
Why wouldn't they want to come and play with cripps, Walsh and weitering?
What will change this time next year that will allow it to happen?
What about the following year when tassie every and have an open cheque book to wave around? Why would players choose us?

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #50 –
It's a two way street.
Who wanted to come?
Who did we want to come?

Plenty of players wanted to come.
Reidy
Chesser
Ainsworth
Florent
Hayward.

...and poor old Khamis.
We were even knocking them back.

Our priorities for next year will determine who we chase, and who we ask the question of, but there is certainly a pathway to get experienced talent into the club through trade and free agency.
There were half a dozen free agents moved this year...there are a few available next year, as well as some out of contract players.

See something you like....
https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/out_of_contract_players?year=2026

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #51 –
This issue about "attracting" a KPP, we've BigH and Weiters, one is a Coleman medalist and the other an AA defender.

Pretty much every available KPP trade option will see themselves behind those two in the pecking order, and they will certainly be behind Cripps as a F50 2nd or 3rd tall, so a trade or FA might not see us as such a destination.

Even so we obtained Dean via the Draft and that has potentially already solidified our position longer term.

As far as KPPs are concerned, at the moment as a selection strategy it appears to live or die by each season's AFL rule changes. Personally, I can't see any stability coming out of the AFL decision making process, it will be interesting to see what happens in the next draft / trade period as Tassie become more involved. The 200cm types might be in the gun because they are the hardest to find some quality, just being 200cm isn;t enough as we have learned from Lemmey and Mirkov, and it's likely the AFL won't want Tassie disadvantaged by loading it up on 2nd Tier options.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #52 –
If you're a young KPP with a bit of ability you'd probably look at Weitering and McKay and think to yourself ...it wouldn't be too bad being a second fiddle to those two, knowing that if you were any good you'd be the 'number one' down the track.
Guys that see that as a challenge rather than a deterrent are the ones you actually want.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #53 –
Quote from: Lods – on
If you're a young KPP with a bit of ability you'd probably look at Weitering and McKay and think to yourself ...it wouldn't be too bad being a second fiddle to those two, knowing that if you were any good you'd be the 'number one' down the track.
Guys that see that as a challenge rather than a deterrent are the ones you actually want.

So our list management strategy is seeing who wants to come to us and work in with what we have.

....and if nobody wants to come to us??

This is where the draft cuts out the 'want' side of things.
If they end up wanting out, then so be it, but you've got something of value you can trade.
If not, then problem solved.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #54 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on
If you're a young KPP with a bit of ability you'd probably look at Weitering and McKay and think to yourself ...it wouldn't be too bad being a second fiddle to those two, knowing that if you were any good you'd be the 'number one' down the track.
Guys that see that as a challenge rather than a deterrent are the ones you actually want.

So our list management strategy is seeing who wants to come to us and work in with what we have.

....and if nobody wants to come to us??

This is where the draft cuts out the 'want' side of things.
If they end up wanting out, then so be it, but you've got something of value you can trade.
If not, then problem solved.

"What if no-one wants to come to us..."
Seriously?

You do some really good, deep analysis and then you pull out these 'extreme' conclusions.
At the end of the day it's all a guess and personal opinion, embellished with a bit of bias as to how we would do things.
The draft has it's place, but that place loses its importance the deeper into the draft you go.
Recruiting has a lot of elements and there comes a point where one element becomes preferable over another.
Talls are always risky through the draft.
You might draft 4 or 5 for nil result
Yet a look at young players with a couple of years experience and you have a better idea of the player they might be.
 

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #55 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on


So our list management strategy is seeing who wants to come to us and work in with what we have.

....and if nobody wants to come to us??

This is where the draft cuts out the 'want' side of things.
If they end up wanting out, then so be it, but you've got something of value you can trade.
If not, then problem solved.

"What if no-one wants to come to us..."
Seriously?

You do some really good, deep analysis and then you pull out these 'extreme' conclusions.
At the end of the day it's all a guess and personal opinion, embellished with a bit of bias as to how we would do things.
The draft has it's place, but that place loses its importance the deeper into the draft you go.
Recruiting has a lot of elements and there comes a point where one element becomes preferable over another.
Talls are always risky through the draft.
You might draft 4 or 5 for nil result
Yet a look at young players with a couple of years experience and you have a better idea of the player they might be.

Refer to my previous comments. Am i the only one that remembers the previous 2 decades?

2003 trades.....
Heath Scotland
Daniel Harford
Corey McGrath
Brett Johnson
Digby Morrell
David Teague
David Clarke

2004...
Troy Longmiu
Callum Chambers

2005....
Jason Saddington

This is the type of talent we could get our hands on or should i say, the only ones that would come to us.
Why didn't we recruit gun players if it was so easy?
Do i need to show your more years to prove a point??



Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #56 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on


"What if no-one wants to come to us..."
Seriously?

You do some really good, deep analysis and then you pull out these 'extreme' conclusions.
At the end of the day it's all a guess and personal opinion, embellished with a bit of bias as to how we would do things.
The draft has it's place, but that place loses its importance the deeper into the draft you go.
Recruiting has a lot of elements and there comes a point where one element becomes preferable over another.
Talls are always risky through the draft.
You might draft 4 or 5 for nil result
Yet a look at young players with a couple of years experience and you have a better idea of the player they might be.

Refer to my previous comments. Am i the only one that remembers the previous 2 decades?

2003 trades.....
Heath Scotland
Daniel Harford
Corey McGrath
Brett Johnson
Digby Morrell
David Teague
David Clarke

2004...
Troy Longmiu
Callum Chambers

2005....
Jason Saddington

This is the type of talent we could get our hands on or should i say, the only ones that would come to us.
Why didn't we recruit gun players if it was so easy?
Do i need to show your more years to prove a point??

I'm not sure why you are dwelling on the past.
It's gone.
It has no bearing on the present.
We have different people running the show.
I suspect with a bit more of an idea.

But the players you mention there were traded in because most of our premiership side were aging or had retired an we had diddly squat in terms of draft picks due to penalties and trade value....and free agency wasn't a thing then.
Added to that a few of those mentioned were more than serviceable and in a better side would have been valuable.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #57 –
Quote from: Lods – on
I'm not sure why you are dwelling on the past.
It's gone.
It has no bearing on the present.
We have different people running the show.
I suspect with a bit more of an idea.

But the players you mention there were traded in because most of our premiership side were aging or had retired an we had diddly squat in terms of draft picks due to penalties and trade value....and free agency wasn't a thing then.
Added to that a few of those mentioned were more than serviceable and in a better side would have been valuable.

I'm trying to point out multiple things.

1. Just because people have a job and a plan, doesn't mean it will be successful.
2. We have a history of making wrong calls and/or going in the wrong direction.
3. What we 'want' doesn't really matter. Its what other players want....and if nobody wants to come to us, this current plan is pointless.

Ask your average joe on whether carlton will improve or drop this year. Betting odds give you an idea if you don't want to run your own poll.

Given the above, if you are looking at changing clubs, would you choose us?

Before your answer....
Who is choosing Essendon right now?
Like us, players are wanting out of Essendon, including their captain. There was rumours that our own captain wouldn't be opposed to a trade. What if this year it becomes a reality?

OK, forget about the last part and go back to points 1-3, why is this time different?
Thats all i'm asking.

People seem supremely confident in the current direction.
Why?

IMO, its simple and falls into 2 categories.
1. Navy coloured glasses.
2. Because the alternative is too depressing to contemplate.


So why bring up the past?
1. ....because talk about the present gets shutdown as a work in progress
2. ....because talk about the future is pure speculation
3. .....thats all thats left to prove a point!

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #58 –
From Foxsports commenting on coaches in the hotseat and ranking them. Like myself and a few other others they are not sharing the enthusiasm for the player ins/outs total result.
1. Michael Voss (Carlton)

After coming awfully close to being dismissed this year, there irrefutably isn’t anyone on a hotter seat in the competition than Voss, who was allowed to coach into the final year of his current contract in 2026. The Blues under Voss built to a 13-win 2023 campaign that netted a preliminary final berth, before stagnating last year and regressing to nine wins in 2025. But is it finals or bust for the four-year Carlton coach? Should that be the pass mark? Off-season list changes — with Charlie Curnow, Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni all notably departing — complicate matters, as it’s hard to argue Carlton improved its personnel for Voss to utilise. The Blues did gain Will Hayward and Ollie Florent and will hopefully have a healthy Jagga Smith back in the fold, but that still might not be enough in the short term to save Voss.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #59 –
I don't understand how commentators can declare a coach is under massive pressure, yet those same commentators argue that our list is weaker. Basically saying Voss has to achieve more with less. Top shelf drivel.