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Topic: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne (Read 8469 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #90 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on
It always amazes me that definitive judgements are made on 19 year olds.

Who is making definitive judgements?

Ignoring everything about the individual player and just looking at where they are drafted, thats the conclusion you will come too. Later picks and rookie picks will struggle to make it.

Now back to the players, have they shown anything at this stage to buck that trend? Not really, they are showing about what their draft value suggests.
They might make it.
They might not.

Not definitive at all, just statistical analysis.

Some would say your post 18 March 2026 , was sounding fairly definitive (& rather harsh) Mr Kruds: -

The campo twins never came highly rated.
We all have expectations that they can live up to their old man, but not likely.

TBH, i don't think they will make it, and if the old man is causing an issue now, perhaps we show them the door sooner rather than later. Perhaps they'd be better off following his footsteps and pissing off to Essendon, they'd probably get a game there.
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Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #91 –
Quote from: Adelaideblue – on
Understand the point you are making DJC & LP re how other recruiters rated Ben & Lucas for them to fall to picks 43 & 45, although I wonder if the fact that we held F/S rights wasn't a factor.

Not sure why they should be better suited back here at Port EB. Guess you are saying they are the type of player Port needs in their mix with Boaky gone. However, hopefully if given a reasonable chance we will find they are a "need' here!

Sometimes I wonder why as supporters we have to be so negative on young players who have hardly been looked at.  These guys, their family members must sometimes read this negativity. If so you we shouldn't be surprised if they do decide to go back from where they have come.  Why poke the bear with a stick? 
As has been said "Carlton supporters devour their own", if true not very smart. As supporters we are part of the fabric of a football club and need to play our part for the club to have success.

Well I guess I got that off my ...back !!
cheers AB

I think that it's more a matter of patience and realism than negativity AB.

I'd much rather see Ben and Lucas taking their time, building strength and endurance, and learning the ropes than being dropped in at the deep end. Lucas has had a taste and showed that he wasn't out of place.  Ben would have had his taste but for a suspension and his time will come.

From their changed physiques, training footage, and their teammates comments, they've both worked hard over the off-season.  Let's see how they go when the VFL kicks off,
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #92 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on
It always amazes me that definitive judgements are made on 19 year olds.

Who is making definitive judgements?

Ignoring everything about the individual player and just looking at where they are drafted, thats the conclusion you will come too. Later picks and rookie picks will struggle to make it.

Now back to the players, have they shown anything at this stage to buck that trend? Not really, they are showing about what their draft value suggests.
They might make it.
They might not.

Not definitive at all, just statistical analysis.

I actually wasn't even thinking about you....just the general tone of criticism of 20 year olds and unders...not just on here.
But you obviously have a guilty conscience to get upset by it. :D

You've been pretty dismissive of Billy Wilson and Cooper Lord.
Lets see how they go as the year progresses
By the way happy birthday to Cooper for the other day, who as he reaches his 21st must be well past it ;)  ;D
 

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #93 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on


Who is making definitive judgements?

Ignoring everything about the individual player and just looking at where they are drafted, thats the conclusion you will come too. Later picks and rookie picks will struggle to make it.

Now back to the players, have they shown anything at this stage to buck that trend? Not really, they are showing about what their draft value suggests.
They might make it.
They might not.

Not definitive at all, just statistical analysis.

I actually wasn't even thinking about you....just the general tone of criticism of 20 year olds and unders...not just on here.
But you obviously have a guilty conscience to get upset by it. :D

You've been pretty dismissive of Billy Wilson and Cooper Lord.
Lets see how they go as the year progresses
By the way happy birthday to Cooper for the other day, who as he reaches his 21st must be well past it ;)  ;D

I wasn't suggested you were thinking about me. Was just questioning where you heard that from as i don't think anyone has been definitive on them....or anyone.

People don't like hearing that any player will not be good enough to make it. People expect everyone drafted will live up to the best versions of themselves and have a long and successful career. Anyone who even suggests otherwise is always 'negative'.
TBH, its similar with Wilson and Lord.
You point out i have something against them, just like others were pointing out issues with the campos.
In reality, its all the same thing. Odds are stacked against them that they will make it. Of all of them, Lord is outdoing his draft status the most, but still far from a 10 year premiership player yet, albeit looking the most likely out of that group.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #94 –
Quote from: Adelaideblue – on
Quote from: kruddler – on


Who is making definitive judgements?

Ignoring everything about the individual player and just looking at where they are drafted, thats the conclusion you will come too. Later picks and rookie picks will struggle to make it.

Now back to the players, have they shown anything at this stage to buck that trend? Not really, they are showing about what their draft value suggests.
They might make it.
They might not.

Not definitive at all, just statistical analysis.

Some would say your post 18 March 2026 , was sounding fairly definitive (& rather harsh) Mr Kruds: -

The campo twins never came highly rated.
We all have expectations that they can live up to their old man, but not likely.

TBH, i don't think they will make it, and if the old man is causing an issue now, perhaps we show them the door sooner rather than later. Perhaps they'd be better off following his footsteps and pissing off to Essendon, they'd probably get a game there.
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I don't 'think' they will make it......that is definitive??

The latter part was me taking a swipe at their grumpy old man......and Essendon....which we can never miss an opportunity to do. ;)

Do you think they are LESS likely to get a game at Essendon??

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #95 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on


I actually wasn't even thinking about you....just the general tone of criticism of 20 year olds and unders...not just on here.
But you obviously have a guilty conscience to get upset by it. :D

You've been pretty dismissive of Billy Wilson and Cooper Lord.
Lets see how they go as the year progresses
By the way happy birthday to Cooper for the other day, who as he reaches his 21st must be well past it ;)  ;D

I wasn't suggested you were thinking about me. Was just questioning where you heard that from as i don't think anyone has been definitive on them....or anyone.

People don't like hearing that any player will not be good enough to make it. People expect everyone drafted will live up to the best versions of themselves and have a long and successful career. Anyone who even suggests otherwise is always 'negative'.
TBH, its similar with Wilson and Lord.
You point out i have something against them, just like others were pointing out issues with the campos.
In reality, its all the same thing. Odds are stacked against them that they will make it. Of all of them, Lord is outdoing his draft status the most, but still far from a 10 year premiership player yet, albeit looking the most likely out of that group.

I guess there are two ways we can look at it.

We can look at the player and see things they need to work on and say "I can't see them making it"
or
We can look at the player and see the attributes that led them to be drafted, but also look at the areas they need to work on and say "They're still young, they will have to show continuing improvement, they may make it."

One's a postive view, the other is a negative one....in a lot of cases these views are determined by our own bias and perceptions.
If the club isn't going great that may also increase our pessimism.

The thing is not every player can be a Sam Walsh or a Jagga Smith.
As you point out the expectaions on high draft picks are greater.

But that doesn't mean a pick round 40 or 50 can't develop into a regular player, someone who plays over 200 games and contributes to the succes of a club.
Premiership sides are full of these types of players.
For some of them the early years of their careers have been years of struggle-in and out of the side until they gain the necessary experience and maturity to reach their potential.

I'l say it again, and it's something I've learnt from personal experience...the 18-19 year old athlete can be a vastly different one from the more mature and experienced 22-23 year old.

I suppose it's up to each of us to determine whether we adopt a positive or a negative attitude to the young ones.
I'd prefer to give them a chance before making a firm judgement.

Ben would have played last year if not for suspension
Lucas did get game time
Billy Wilson got games at the end of last year and improved each one after showing good form in the VFL
Lord has been a regular member of the side and been rewarded with a contract extension.

The challenge for the Camporeale boys isn't to set the world on fire this year...it's just to show improvement and play some senior football. If they do that they put themselves in a good position to gain a contract extension. If we see nothing in terms of improvement they may be in the gun. But making a judgement on their 2026 before they've even kicked a ball in anger in a serious game  is probably a bit premature. You can argue they're not in the side to start with, but the depth around their positions means that they have to 'win' that place, not have it gifted.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #96 –
Nobody has said they can't make it.

Everybody hopes they do.

If you are a betting man, you bet against them based on where they were drafted. You can do that for every player drafted at a similar spot.
Clearly not all of them will fail, but more of them will fail rather than make it.
Thats the simple truth.

Thats not positive.
Thats not negative.
Thats simple statistics.