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Topic: AFL Rd 3 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne (Read 5599 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #120 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on


No, it means nothing at this stage of the year.

And is definitely not comparable to previous years

Different rules
Different opposition

We win a couple of games by 40-50 points at this tme of the year and you shoot past the 100%
Do that at the end of the year with bigger point totals and it doesn't cause the same fluctuations.

Watch Gold Coast's percentage drop, even if they keep winning.

I understand how % works Lods.

After what round does it suddenly start to matter? We can reconvene then if you'd like. I'm interested to see what your next excuse will be. I must say the head in the sand defence was not what i was expecting this time around, so next time will also be a surprise.

Do you understand it?
We often see teams with percentages of well over 150% in the early rounds of a season....often greater.
We rarely see teams with those figures at the end of the season.
A team could win by 100 points in the first game and lose the next four by close margins and still have a percentage over 100%

Picking a point where it evens out is not an exact science.

Our percentage last year after 4 games was 81.2%
Our percentage last year after 5 games was 103.6%
That's the effect of a 70 point winover West Coast.
A 20+% point rise

A 70 point win in round 22 would only move the dial around 4-5%
 

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #121 –
Youve said it, ive said it. Percentage is a better predictor of how well you are going rather than wins/losses and ladder position.

You can ignore it all you like and hope we can find clubs to beat up on to inflate our %, but ill give you the hot tip, i think we've already played 2 teams that are vying for the positions held by north and west coast last year.....and i think north and west coast have very much improved, especially relative to us.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #122 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Youve said it, ive said it. Percentage is a better predictor of how well you are going rather than wins/losses and ladder position.

You can ignore it all you like and hope we can find clubs to beat up on to inflate our %, but ill give you the hot tip, i think we've already played 2 teams that are vying for the positions held by north and west coast last year.....and i think north and west coast have very much improved, especially relative to us.

I agree with you it's a better predictor of performance....but not after two or three rounds when big margins can skew the percentages.
I've had a bit of a look at some ladders and it actually doesn't take too long for things to settle down, probably around round 8-10, and the top team's percentages come back around the 120-130 mark.
What you still get there though is some wide variations, with teams with percentages under 100% in the top eight, and teams with 100+outside the 8.

By round 24 your top 8 will nearly always be over 100%