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Topic: AFL Rd 3 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne (Read 8992 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #120


No, it means nothing at this stage of the year.

And is definitely not comparable to previous years

Different rules
Different opposition

We win a couple of games by 40-50 points at this tme of the year and you shoot past the 100%
Do that at the end of the year with bigger point totals and it doesn't cause the same fluctuations.

Watch Gold Coast's percentage drop, even if they keep winning.

I understand how % works Lods.

After what round does it suddenly start to matter? We can reconvene then if you'd like. I'm interested to see what your next excuse will be. I must say the head in the sand defence was not what i was expecting this time around, so next time will also be a surprise.

Do you understand it?
We often see teams with percentages of well over 150% in the early rounds of a season....often greater.
We rarely see teams with those figures at the end of the season.
A team could win by 100 points in the first game and lose the next four by close margins and still have a percentage over 100%

Picking a point where it evens out is not an exact science.

Our percentage last year after 4 games was 81.2%
Our percentage last year after 5 games was 103.6%
That's the effect of a 70 point winover West Coast.
A 20+% point rise

A 70 point win in round 22 would only move the dial around 4-5%

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #121
Youve said it, ive said it. Percentage is a better predictor of how well you are going rather than wins/losses and ladder position.

You can ignore it all you like and hope we can find clubs to beat up on to inflate our %, but ill give you the hot tip, i think we've already played 2 teams that are vying for the positions held by north and west coast last year.....and i think north and west coast have very much improved, especially relative to us.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #122
Youve said it, ive said it. Percentage is a better predictor of how well you are going rather than wins/losses and ladder position.

You can ignore it all you like and hope we can find clubs to beat up on to inflate our %, but ill give you the hot tip, i think we've already played 2 teams that are vying for the positions held by north and west coast last year.....and i think north and west coast have very much improved, especially relative to us.

I agree with you it's a better predictor of performance....but not after two or three rounds when big margins can skew the percentages.
I've had a bit of a look at some ladders and it actually doesn't take too long for things to settle down, probably around round 8-10, and the top team's percentages come back around the 120-130 mark.
What you still get there though is some wide variations, with teams with percentages under 100% in the top eight, and teams with 100+outside the 8.

By round 24 your top 8 will nearly always be over 100%

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #123
My day at the footy:

I left home at 1300 and caught the VLine train from South Geelong.  It was a leisurely trip, so leisurely that I missed our first two goals.

One of the things I noticed walking from the station to the G was how few cars were parked in Yarra Park; fuel prices are biting.

I haven’t listened to any commentary on the match, read any reviews or posts here, watched replays and I haven’t seen any stats or votes.  What follows are my own impressions, as flawed as they may be.

We played damn good footy in the first quarter and it seemed that we were going to give the Dees an old-fashioned shellacking.  The only concern I had was that Max Gawn was all over Pitto and Skull.

The second quarter was much the same, although we weren’t getting the results on the scoreboard and big Max stepped his game up a notch.

I braved the crush in the Legends’ Lounge at half time and enjoyed a glass of Balter XPA.

At the start of the third quarter two thirds of the G was bathed in sunlight and it looked magnificent.  I thought that you couldn’t get a better day in Melbourne, if only our team could continue on. Half way through the third quarter, the sun began shining directly into my eyes and my shady seat was roasting.  Mistakes were creeping into our game and Gawn had stepped up another notch.  Kosi Pickett was making his presence felt too.

We started the last quarter well and my confidence was restored ... momentarily!  Melbourne lifted again and it was like we’d lost all confidence and cohesion and were resigned to losing.

It’s probably unfair to single players out but I thought that Kemp had an absolute shocker.  He seemed to be far more concerned about his opponent than he was about leading and making his defender work.  Our youngsters – Dean, Smith, Carroll, Byrne and Skull - all made rookie errors.  That’s to be expected but it’s still momentum sapping.  And, speaking of momentum sapping, the holding the ball free against Hewett was critical … and the Dees seemed to get more than their fair share of critical frees.

Lij Hollands was mercurial at times and the usual suspects plugged away, but we had no answer to big Max and Kosi.

Forget about Daicos and the Bont, Max Gawn is the best footballer going around now.  Apart from his ruckwork, the outcome of virtually every kick down the line was a foregone conclusion.   

The train trip home was morose and strangely quiet.  I spoke to a Melbourne supporter who was getting off at South Geelong too and he said, “I can’t work out how we won, or how you lost.”  I think the answer is between the ears.

I got home just after 2030; a long and pretty dismal day.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #124
Forget about Daicos and the Bont, Max Gawn is the best footballer going around now.  Apart from his ruckwork, the outcome of virtually every kick down the line was a foregone conclusion.
Yes, a good summary and it's obvious.

Gawn was better than good even before the playing conditions changed, and for 2026 they've changed to something strongly in his favour, if he can stay fit they can do anything.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

 

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #125
My day at the footy:

I left home at 1300 and caught the VLine train from South Geelong.  It was a leisurely trip, so leisurely that I missed our first two goals.

One of the things I noticed walking from the station to the G was how few cars were parked in Yarra Park; fuel prices are biting.

I haven’t listened to any commentary on the match, read any reviews or posts here, watched replays and I haven’t seen any stats or votes.  What follows are my own impressions, as flawed as they may be.

We played damn good footy in the first quarter and it seemed that we were going to give the Dees an old-fashioned shellacking.  The only concern I had was that Max Gawn was all over Pitto and Skull.

The second quarter was much the same, although we weren’t getting the results on the scoreboard and big Max stepped his game up a notch.

I braved the crush in the Legends’ Lounge at half time and enjoyed a glass of Balter XPA.

At the start of the third quarter two thirds of the G was bathed in sunlight and it looked magnificent.  I thought that you couldn’t get a better day in Melbourne, if only our team could continue on. Half way through the third quarter, the sun began shining directly into my eyes and my shady seat was roasting.  Mistakes were creeping into our game and Gawn had stepped up another notch.  Kosi Pickett was making his presence felt too.

We started the last quarter well and my confidence was restored ... momentarily!  Melbourne lifted again and it was like we’d lost all confidence and cohesion and were resigned to losing.

It’s probably unfair to single players out but I thought that Kemp had an absolute shocker.  He seemed to be far more concerned about his opponent than he was about leading and making his defender work.  Our youngsters – Dean, Smith, Carroll, Byrne and Skull - all made rookie errors.  That’s to be expected but it’s still momentum sapping.  And, speaking of momentum sapping, the holding the ball free against Hewett was critical … and the Dees seemed to get more than their fair share of critical frees.

Lij Hollands was mercurial at times and the usual suspects plugged away, but we had no answer to big Max and Kosi.

Forget about Daicos and the Bont, Max Gawn is the best footballer going around now.  Apart from his ruckwork, the outcome of virtually every kick down the line was a foregone conclusion.   

The train trip home was morose and strangely quiet.  I spoke to a Melbourne supporter who was getting off at South Geelong too and he said, “I can’t work out how we won, or how you lost.”  I think the answer is between the ears.

I got home just after 2030; a long and pretty dismal day.

Just about nails it DJ. I watched it on tv and felt similarly morose at the end. Not encouraged to make the effort from the Yarra Valley to attend anytime soon.
Reality always wins in the end.